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UK Dips Back Into Recession
Forex News and Events:
UK GDP release today showed that the nation is technically in recession. UK Q1 GDP -0.2% q/q vs 0.1% exp, -0.3% prior; 0.0% y/y vs +0.3% exp, +0.5% prior read. The GBP took a hit on the news falling to 1.6082, but the generally feeling it’s the leading indicators have turned up significantly suggesting the worse is behind the UK. The highlight of the day will be tonights FOMC. The FOMC is expected to keep rates unchanged at 0.25% and maintain the current policy stance when it meets on Thursday. Although we do expect Bernanke to likely signal the end of operation twist at the scheduled end of June timing. We see little evidence of disinflation, but there is a portion of the FOMC which remains mindful of factors that might play out after energy price gains have ...
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Australian dollar to claw back all losses
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Surprisingly-strongUS earnings reports released after the NY close generated an upbeat tone in Asia, allowing the Australian dollar to claw back all losses it has suffered since Tuesday’s soft CPI reading. Asian equities also got a boost, and USDJPY is still looking firm ahead of tonight’s Fed policy announcements. There are three FOMC-related events to watch out for.
The policy statement will be published first, but our US economists doubt the Fed will alter its view that economic conditions are likely to warrant exceptionally low levels for the federal funds rate at least through late 2014.
Ninety minutes later the quarterly forecasts may show some modest upward revisions to inflation and growth projections, and some Fed officials may ...
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Euro Slightly Higher As Tensions Ease
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Core bonds hit by profit taking, non-core bonds gain
- Risk aversion ebbed away following Monday's rout, leading to some modest profit taking in core bonds. Non-core bonds did well and yield spreads versus Germany narrowed. Spain and the Netherlands outperformed yesterday. Investors will stay largely sideways today, ahead of this evening's FOMC statement and press conference of Mr. Bernanke.
- Currencies: Euro slightly higher as tensions ease
- On Tuesday, most markets saw a setback on Monday's sharp sell-off in risky assets. In this move, EUR/USD returned to the 1.32 area, but a technically significant break didn't occur. EUR/GBP came near the 0.8143 August 2010 low. Today, the focus of currency trading will be on the Fed.
The ...
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Brent slips, narrows spread versus stronger oil
Brent oil slipped while crude rose on Tuesday, narrowing the spread between the two benchmarks, while gasoline futures fell as market participants rotated positions.
Gasoline dipped more than 1 percent, the biggest percentage move in the complex, weighed down by anticipated imports, lackluster demand and weak cash price differentials, analysts said.
"(A)n expected upswing in imports during the coming weeks, soft Gulf coast and Midwest cash markets and possible sale of Sunoco's Philadelphia refinery all tilt in favor of renewed gasoline futures weakness," Jim Ritterbusch, president at Ritterbusch & Associates, said in a report.
A weak dollar was cited as bolstering crude, while disappointing economic data offered no support for the complex.
Brent's premium to the West Texas Intermediate ...
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Euro rallies on housing data
The euro rallied against the dollar on Tuesday after two housing reports raised optimism about the economic recovery and in turn stoked risked tolerance against the backdrop of a two-day policy meeting at the central bank.
The euro was already bid after a debt sale in the Netherlands saw demand from investors a day after the Dutch government's collapse in a crisis over budget cuts. As institutional investors stepped in to buy the euro after the data, others who had bet against the European currency reversed positions. The move higher then fed on itself.
A closely watched survey showed home prices rose for the first time in 10 months, in an encouraging sign the battered sector is starting to stabilize.
A separate report showed single-family home sales dropped in March to their lowest ...
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U.S. Consumer Confidence Dips Marginally in April on Less Optimistic Short-term Outlooks
U.S. Consumer Confidence Dips Marginally in April on Less Optimistic Short-term Outlooks
- The Conference Board's measure of US consumer confidence edged down by a modest 0.3 points to 69.2 in April 2012, which was just below market expectations for a reading of 69.6.
- The current employment differential improved to -29.1, which is its best reading since November 2008, as fewer consumers reported jobs as being "hard to get".
- While the modest decline in consumer confidence in April is disappointing, the April reading of 69.2 is above the first-quarter 2012 average of 67.5 that had represented the highest index level since first quarter of 2008, and the better assessment of current conditions bodes well for momentum being maintained in the coming months.
The Conference Board's ...
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European Market Update : 24/04/2012
(EU) ECB: €562M borrowed in overnight loan facility v €311M prior; €767.8B parked in deposit facility v €775.7B prior
(CH) Swiss Mar Trade Balance (CHF): 1.7B v 3.0Be; Real Exports M/M:-2.5% v +1.0%e; Real Imports M/M: 4.6% v -12.2% prior
(FI) Finland Mar PPI M/M: 0.4% v 0.8%e; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.8%e
(FI) Finland Mar Unemployment Rate: 8.5% v 8.2%e
(CH) Swiss Mar UBS Consumption Indicator: 1.22 v 0.90 prior
(FR) France Apr Consumer Confidence: 88 v 87e; Business Survey Overall Demand: +4 v -8 prior
(ES) Spain Feb Mortgages-capital loaned Y/Y: -49.6 v -34.0% prior; Mortgages on Houses Y/Y: -47.1 v -41.3% prior
(CZ) Czech Apr Business Confidence: +7.5 v +9.6 prior; Consumer Confidence: -29.3 v -29.5 prior; Composite: +0.2 v +1.7 prior
(HU) Hungary Feb Retail Trade Y/Y: -1.4% v +0.2%e
(ZA) South ...
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Rally looks fragile, needs some support
Higher-yielders recovered briefly some of yesterdays losses, risky assets look fragile ahead of the main releases from the U.S; in the form of consumer confidence and new home sales. Confidence among consumers is expected to show a slight setback while new home sales expected to signal further recovery within the housing sector.
In general, the risk-off theme continues to dominate the scenes , while markets eagerly waiting tomorrow's FOMC meeting outcome for a clue that will outline the next short term direction.
The EUR/USD rebounded slightly currently trading just below the 50-days SMA; meanwhile a bearish technical pattern could be in the process of completion, where we expect the bearish sentiment to dampen further upside for the pair. Anyhow, 1.3210-1.3220 is the main resistance ...
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Euro Rangebound in Forex Trading
Euro is mostly rangebound today, making small gains against the US dollar, after a Dutch bond auction proved reasonably successful. The euro has been struggling lately due to concerns about the political stability of eurozone countries, as well as continued worries about Spain.
Earlier, a bond auction in the Netherlands was deemed a success. There had been some questions about the bond auction, since the resignation of Prime Minister Mark Rutte and the collapse of the Dutch government. With politicians unable to agree on budgetary measures, the government is at an impasse and an early general election looks like it will be called.
The bond auction out of the Netherlands, though, is steadying the euro somewhat in Forex trading. It appears that the Netherlands is likely to maintain its AAA ...
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