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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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Markets vs. Technocrats
Forex News and Events:
Over the past few days, the media has been relaying comments suggesting leaders are backing the stay of Greece in the EMU. For starters the G8 stressed the importance for Greece to remain in the monetary union regardless of the discord over how to best tackle the crisis. During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, former Greek PM insisted that an exit would yield “catastrophic” consequences for the country itself and “far reaching” implications for the EU. During yesterday’s European session however, EU officials stated they have agreed over a teleconference call with Eurogroup Work Group (EWG) that each nation in the EMU must prepare an individual contingency plan in case of an exit. The EUR sank against the USD to its lowest level since July 2010 at 1.2544, down 5. ...
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U.K. Contracts More than Expected in the First Quarter
The United Kingdom released the gross domestic product figures for the first quarter ending in March, where the preliminary indexes showed more contraction in the quarter, compared with the advanced and the previous contraction.
Over quarterly basis, the royal economy contracted by 0.3%, unexpectedly revised lower from the advanced index and the previous of -0.2% recorded in the fourth quarter.
The annual index dropped unexpectedly as well by 0.1%, missing estimates of steady reading and the previous expansion of 0.5% recorded in the fourth quarter.
Private consumption expanded in a slower than expected pace, where the index expanded by 0.1% from the previous of 0.4%, missing estimates of 0.3% most probably due to rising inflation, which weighed sharply on individuals` income.
...
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EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
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European Manufacturing And Services Resume Contraction Amid Worries Of A Greek Exit From The Euro Ar
European manufacturing and services showed contraction in May, adding to concerns the economy is heading towards a recession in the second quarter amid the escalating European debt crisis.
Euro area manufacturing and services remained to record contraction in May as manufacturing posted 45.0 from 45.9 in April while services reported 46.5 from 46.9. Accordingly, the PMI composite index came in at 45.9 from 46.7.
The reading in Germany showed a drop in PMI manufacturing to 45.0 this month, the lowest in 35 months, from 46.2 in April. In France, the manufacturing gauge slipped to 44.4 in May from 46.9 a month earlier.
On the other hand, German services lingered at 52.2 while French services index was unchanged at 45.2.
In fact, the 0.5% expansion recorded by the German economy saved the ...
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European future equities rise before the opening today
European stock futures signaled a positive start before the opening today timing some of the loses witnessed in the past few days as European decision makers instated that Greece must stick to the austerity measures in order to stay in the euro zone and to prevent major problems.
Spain announced Wednesday evening a 9 billion euro bailout to rescue Bankia, at the same time that the Spanish government is seeking ways to help reform the indebted banking sector that threatens to pull the economy deep into the heart of the debt crisis.
As for FOREX markets, we can see that currencies are performing differently from European stocks as investors see that it`s not time to risk yet since concerns over the European economic growth dominates markets.
The euro slipped during the last two days by ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Concern about Greece "is a big weight on the market and makes things uncertain"
- Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize Private Assets
European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, after rising by the most in a month on Tuesday, on speculation Greece may exit the euro zone.
USD
"It’s very clear now that the housing market has turned a corner"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC
Sales of new U.S. homes rose by more than expected in April, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Purchases increased to an annual rate of 343,000, up by 3.3 per cent from a revised 332,000 in March.
GBP
" employment remains fragile and wage growth weak"
- Ross Walker, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group
U.K. retails sales declined by ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 24th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair XAU/USD has faked yesterday a breakout of 1550 points.
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1580 is resistance.
The breakout of 1560 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1540 points.
In case of return above 1580 points, we will wait the breakout of 1600 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 23th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 24th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD found support yesterday on 0.97 and is currently moving towards a pullback on 0.98 as resistance.
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.9875 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.97 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.96.
In case of return above 0.9875, we will wait the breakout of 0.9950 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 23th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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