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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 24/05/2012
Today's Comment
Yesterday we stated that a Chinese PMI figure below 49 would have a negative effect on the financial market. The Chinese PMI came out at 48.7, i.e. a fall from 49.3 last month … the effects of the fall is very evident in the FX market, particularly in respect of commodity-related currencies. This supports our scenario that the economy (global) is lagging a bit behind here in the second quarter, which can particularly be attributed to the renewed outbreak of the European debt crisis.
The PMI index has now been below 50 for seven months on end. This is very concerning, particularly because many investors maintain their positive investments as they expect that China will be in for a soft landing. If the landing is to be soft, the Chinese PMI figures will have to increase ...
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Shares, euro fall as Europe's economy worsens
(Reuters) - The euro hit a fresh 22-month low and European shares gave up early gains on Thursday after data showed Europe's economic slump has worsened, as talk of a Greek exit and a lack of progress in tackling the debt crisis hits business confidence.
Germany's manufacturing sector shrank at the fastest rate in three years in May, the Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed, as both exports and new orders coming into factories declined.
"May's drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09," Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said.
German business sentiment has also dropped for the first time in seven months, ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 24/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Manufacturing PMI (FRA, 07:00 GMT)
- German Manufacturing PMI (GER, 08:00 GMT)
- German Ifo Business Climate Index (GER, 09:00 GMT)
- GDP (QoQ) + Business Investment (QoQ) + BBA Mortgage Approvals (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 14:00 GMT)
- Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
Demand for new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in April, indicating residential real estate may contribute to economic growth for the first time in seven years. Purchases rose to a 343,000 annual rate, up 3.3 percent from a revised 332,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported today in ...
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EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
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Gold under pressure after EU summit, eyes to track European manufacturing and services
Gold is showing slight decline on Wednesday’s early trading to continue its drop for the third consecutive session on worries from the euro area amid frictions among European leaders over methods to tackle crisis and amid speculations of Greek exit to the euro area.
The main highlight yesterday was the informal EU summit that tackled euro area fiscal problems, where the meeting showed disagreement over introducing Eurobonds as German Chancellor Angela Merkel said after the EU summit that her country support her opposition to jointly issued common European bonds.
On the other hand, still there are many speculations that Greece may leave the euro zone which would lead to many negative consequences on European banks providing loans to Greece.
As long as debt crisis is intensifying, gold is ...
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European future equities rise before the opening today
European stock futures signaled a positive start before the opening today timing some of the loses witnessed in the past few days as European decision makers instated that Greece must stick to the austerity measures in order to stay in the euro zone and to prevent major problems.
Spain announced Wednesday evening a 9 billion euro bailout to rescue Bankia, at the same time that the Spanish government is seeking ways to help reform the indebted banking sector that threatens to pull the economy deep into the heart of the debt crisis.
As for FOREX markets, we can see that currencies are performing differently from European stocks as investors see that it`s not time to risk yet since concerns over the European economic growth dominates markets.
The euro slipped during the last two days by ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/24/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
Another day of battle between the sellers and the buyers in Wall Street has passed by, as the sellers are still on the upper hand. In fact, the continuation of the bearish momentum was expected after the indices made bearish reversal patterns on Tuesday. The new home sales data came out better than expected but this did not help the stock to rise, as today's main data is the continuing jobless claims.
The declines of the stocks caused sharp weakening of most of the major currencies, except the USD. Therefore, we see many oversold/overbought pairs and we see less accurate patterns in the daily chart. What you should do in these kinds of situations is to wait for corrections or trade in the intraday charts and look for quick trades, although it can be more dangerous.
EUR/ ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Concern about Greece "is a big weight on the market and makes things uncertain"
- Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize Private Assets
European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, after rising by the most in a month on Tuesday, on speculation Greece may exit the euro zone.
USD
"It’s very clear now that the housing market has turned a corner"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC
Sales of new U.S. homes rose by more than expected in April, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Purchases increased to an annual rate of 343,000, up by 3.3 per cent from a revised 332,000 in March.
GBP
" employment remains fragile and wage growth weak"
- Ross Walker, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group
U.K. retails sales declined by ...
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