ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Likely Recession In EuropeTitle:
Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Weekly Focus: Weak Data Expected to Trigger Policy Response
Market Movers ahead
- US non-farm payrolls are expected to rebound to 170K.
- We expect the manufacturing ISM index for May to weaken somewhat.
- The result of the Irish referendum on fiscal compact will most likely be a 'Yes'.
- In China focus will be on the release of the NBS manufacturing PMI.
Global Update
- Deteriorating PMIs and IFO signal that core Europe is in recession as well.
- EU summit produced few new details. Growth compact set to be endorsed in June.
- Greek polls suggest close run between Syriza and New Democracy.
- First release of US flash PMI showed a deterioration of economic conditions.
- The US housing market is a source of good news.
- Weak Chinese data are expected to ...
Title:
Another Day, Another New Correction Low For EUR/USD
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Hunt for yield
- Following horrible French and German PMI readings, core bonds set new highs. The German 10-yr yield set an all time low at 1.35% and this initiated for the first time a “hunt for yield” trade into Belgian, Austrian and French bonds. The trade was most visible at the longer end of the curve, resulting in a bull flattening.
- Currencies: Another day, another new correction low for EUR/USD
- On Thursday, the decline of EUR/USD was extended. However, given the flood of negative news, the damage could have been worse. EUR/GBP struggles to hold above the 0.8000 barrier. Today, the calendar is thin. However, one can expect investors to stay cautious going into a long weekend. This is no help for the euro
The Sunrise ...
Title:
What would Greek exit mean for the U.S. economy?
(Reuters) - Uncertainty over the fate of the euro currency is already dampening U.S. economic growth and any significant worsening of the crisis would deal a blow to a recovery that is gradually gathering steam.
Economists estimate that volatile markets and business uncertainty over the fate of Greece and the policy course in Europe is already shaving anywhere from one tenth to one half a percentage point from U.S. 2012 gross domestic product growth.
In a Reuters poll last week, U.S. GDP was forecast on average at 2.3 percent for 2012 and 2.4 percent for 2013.
The direct hit to growth comes through trade. U.S. exports to the European Union account for 19 percent of total exports, and those to the euro zone represent 13 percent of the total. But when calculated in terms of GDP, the share ...
Title:
Western Asset Management sold European bank debt: CIO
(Reuters) - Fixed income money manager Western Asset Management Co slashed its holdings of European bank debt and shifted to borrowings in the United States, which will benefit from stronger economic growth, Chief Investment Officer Stephen Walsh said on Thursday.
Western Asset's biggest concern is the mounting economic challenge facing Europe that is likely to tip the region into recession, Walsh, who helps oversees $446.7 billion, said on a webcast for the firm's fund investors.
The situation is unlikely to be resolved soon, he said, making it a good time to reduce risk by selling European bank debt "and bringing it back to the U.S."
Western, a unit of Baltimore asset manager Legg Mason Inc (LM.N), is just one of a number of major bond managers grappling with how to treat their ...
Title:
Gold prices rise 1 percent as dollar retreats
(Reuters) - Gold rose 1 percent on Thursday, snapping three days of losses to climb towards $1,580 an ounce, as the dollar swung back into negative territory versus the euro after a softer-than-expected U.S. manufacturing report.
Confidence in the single currency remains fragile after it earlier hit a near two-year low against the dollar. Dire German manufacturing and business climate data spooked investors already weighing up the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone.
But gold got a lift from International Monetary Fund data showing another rise in central bank gold holdings in April, after the largest purchase in over four years by the Philippines.
Spot gold rose as high as $1,577.50 an ounce and was up 0.8 percent to $1,573.11 an ounce by 9:50 a.m. EDT (1350 GMT), while U.S. gold ...
Title:
Gold edges up as euro cuts losses
(Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday, after three days of losses, although the drag of the euro near two-year lows tempered the bullion price and eclipsed data that showed another rise in central bank purchases of the metal last month.
The euro edged higher, having hit a near two-year low against the dollar earlier on Thursday after dire German economic data suggested no country in the region was immune from crisis, spooking investors already weighing the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone.
This offset a potentially bullish lift from International Monetary Fund data that showed another rise in central bank holdings in April, after the largest purchase in over four years by the Philippines and further additions by the likes of Mexico, Ukraine and Russia to their reserves.
Spot gold rose 0. ...
Title:
YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 24/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Manufacturing PMI (FRA, 07:00 GMT)
- German Manufacturing PMI (GER, 08:00 GMT)
- German Ifo Business Climate Index (GER, 09:00 GMT)
- GDP (QoQ) + Business Investment (QoQ) + BBA Mortgage Approvals (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 14:00 GMT)
- Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
Demand for new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in April, indicating residential real estate may contribute to economic growth for the first time in seven years. Purchases rose to a 343,000 annual rate, up 3.3 percent from a revised 332,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported today in ...
Title:
Guessing game begins over next Treasury chief
(Reuters) - Wanted for the Treasury Department: a new boss who can fix trillion-dollar-plus budget deficits, overhaul the tax system and spur a reluctant Europe into fixing its debt crisis.
It's a tall order, especially when the new Treasury chief also must deal with a fractious Congress - and all for a salary lower than that paid to many junior Wall Street bankers.
Economists, investors and veterans of past administrations are appraising potential successors to Treasury Secretary Timothy Geithner, either in a new Obama administration, if President Barack Obama is re-elected, or under Mitt Romney.
Geithner has made it clear that he is leaving the post he has held since January 2009 even if Obama, a Democrat, beats Romney, the presumptive Republican presidential nominee, in the November ...
Title:
Waiting for the EU Summit
Trading in the London Session was choppy with the market unwilling to take any clear direction as we lead up to tomorrow's informal EU summit. The market toyed with the idea of Eurobonds (they like that idea and risk assets may rally tomorrow on any signs they are on the horizon.) Then they focused on the prospect of a showdown between Germany and France, Europe's de facto leaders, which caused a mild sell off. Right now the chances of the latter happening are more likely especially since Merkel is unlikely to be re-elected next year if she agrees to Eurobonds (read Germany guaranteeing the bulk of Europe's debt), which would never fly with German voters.
Although the EU President said that everything is on the table for discussion tomorrow, he also said that no concrete measures will be ...
|