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LikelyTitle:
A dead cat bounce?
After a bunch of creepy economic figures starting from the euro zone manufacturing and services numbers which showed the sectors extended contraction last month and confidence among business within germany dropped to 106.9 from 109.4, that was followed by the GDP figure from the U.K which confirmed further contraction as the country’s economy contracted more than expected. While from the U.S; core durable goods orders dropped by 0.6% while markets were expecting a 1.1% expansion.
Although the overall picture remains clearly uncertain, however markets were well supported after being extensively oversold today, rebounding slightly this morning, and currently extending the recovery after the Greek central bank chief said that Greece’s four largest banks are to be recapitalized by an 18 ...
Title:
Gold edges up as euro cuts losses
(Reuters) - Gold rose on Thursday, after three days of losses, although the drag of the euro near two-year lows tempered the bullion price and eclipsed data that showed another rise in central bank purchases of the metal last month.
The euro edged higher, having hit a near two-year low against the dollar earlier on Thursday after dire German economic data suggested no country in the region was immune from crisis, spooking investors already weighing the risk of Greece leaving the euro zone.
This offset a potentially bullish lift from International Monetary Fund data that showed another rise in central bank holdings in April, after the largest purchase in over four years by the Philippines and further additions by the likes of Mexico, Ukraine and Russia to their reserves.
Spot gold rose 0. ...
Title:
Kiwi Pauses Decline, Can It Keep Gains?
The New Zealand dollar stalled its declined and rebounded today on speculations that losses were excessive. Gains were limited, though, as the disagreement between European leaders hurt demand for higher-yielding assets.
Losses were indeed big as the kiwi (the nickname of New Zealand’s currency) was falling since the beginning of May against the greenback and since the beginning of March versus the yen. In fact, just yesterday the currency touched the lowest level this year. The NZ dollar had a bit of good news today as the traded balance surplus widened to NZ$355 million in April from NZ$186 million in March. Nevertheless, the adverse global economic environment caused by Europe’s woes is likely to keep the kiwi from running much higher.
NZD/USD was up from 0.7516 to 0.7546 as of 11:02 ...
Title:
PMI Deterioration Could Trigger ECB Cut
PMI Deterioration Could Trigger ECB Cut
- We believe deteriorating PMIs could trigger a move from the ECB. We now expect the ECB to lower interest rates at the June meeting. We expect a one-off rate cut of 25bp - leaving the refi rate at 0.75%. Deposit rates are likely to be left unchanged while the marginal lending rate is expected to be lowered 50bp to 1.25%.
- If market sentiment worsens on Greek or Spanish concerns, this could trigger additional non-standard measures such as longer maturity LTROs. This is not our main scenario though as we continue to expect a viable solution in Greece.
- The euro area composite PMI dropped from 46.7 in April to 45.9 in May driven by a drop in manufacturing PMI. The German Ifo also gave in and dropped in May.
Details and outlook
The euro ...
Title:
Rupee Suffers on EU Summit & Poor Prospects for India’s Growth
The Indian rupee dropped today as a disagreement for the European leaders about a way to tackle the debt problems lead to risk aversion sentiment on the Forex market that hurt riskier currencies of emerging markets. Still, the currency managed to rebound at present.
As was expected, the summit of the European Union chiefs has not provided a positive result. And the rupee desperately needs a bullish story, but it has not found it in Europe and it is not likely to find it in India itself. The Organization of Economic Cooperation and Development predicted that India’s growth may remain “subdued” in the fiscal year through March 2013. Indeed, analysts forecast that the economy would expand 6.1 percent in the first quarter of this year from a year ago, at the same rate as in the previous ...
Title:
Markets vs. Technocrats
Forex News and Events:
Over the past few days, the media has been relaying comments suggesting leaders are backing the stay of Greece in the EMU. For starters the G8 stressed the importance for Greece to remain in the monetary union regardless of the discord over how to best tackle the crisis. During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, former Greek PM insisted that an exit would yield “catastrophic” consequences for the country itself and “far reaching” implications for the EU. During yesterday’s European session however, EU officials stated they have agreed over a teleconference call with Eurogroup Work Group (EWG) that each nation in the EMU must prepare an individual contingency plan in case of an exit. The EUR sank against the USD to its lowest level since July 2010 at 1.2544, down 5. ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 24/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Manufacturing PMI (FRA, 07:00 GMT)
- German Manufacturing PMI (GER, 08:00 GMT)
- German Ifo Business Climate Index (GER, 09:00 GMT)
- GDP (QoQ) + Business Investment (QoQ) + BBA Mortgage Approvals (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Core Durable Goods Orders (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 14:00 GMT)
- Treasury Secretary Geithner Speaks (U.S., 19:00 GMT)
Demand for new U.S. homes rose more than forecast in April, indicating residential real estate may contribute to economic growth for the first time in seven years. Purchases rose to a 343,000 annual rate, up 3.3 percent from a revised 332,000 in March, the Commerce Department reported today in ...
Title:
EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Concern about Greece "is a big weight on the market and makes things uncertain"
- Emmanuel Soupre, a fund manager at Neuflize Private Assets
European stocks tumbled on Wednesday, after rising by the most in a month on Tuesday, on speculation Greece may exit the euro zone.
USD
"It’s very clear now that the housing market has turned a corner"
- Richard DeKaser, deputy chief economist at Parthenon Group LLC
Sales of new U.S. homes rose by more than expected in April, Commerce Department data showed on Wednesday. Purchases increased to an annual rate of 343,000, up by 3.3 per cent from a revised 332,000 in March.
GBP
" employment remains fragile and wage growth weak"
- Ross Walker, chief U.K. economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group
U.K. retails sales declined by ...
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