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Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 22/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· CPI (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
· BOE Inflation Letter (GB, Tentative)
· Existing Home Sales (U.S., 15 :00 GMT)
The U.S. labor market is set to strengthen this year, a survey published by the National Association for Business Economics said Monday. The survey of 54 economists said non-farm payroll increases will average 188,000 per month this year, up from the prior projection of 170,000. The jobless rate is expected to fall to 8 percent by the fourth quarter of 2012.
Japan’s foreign investments and assets grew to the second-highest level on record as companies used the high yen to make acquisitions abroad, a trend that may help them cope with stagnant demand at home. Investments abroad grew 3.3 percent to 582 trillion yen ($7. ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 15/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· French GDP (QoQ) (FRA, 6:30 GMT)
· German GDP (QoQ) (GER, 7:00 GMT)
· French Non-Farm Payrolls (QoQ) (FRA, 7:45 GMT)
· Trade Balance (GB, 9:30 GMT)
· ZEW Economic Sentiment (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· German ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER, 10:00 GMT)
· GDP (QoQ) (EUR, 10:00 GMT)
· Core CPI (YoY) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· Retail Sales (MoM) U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· NY Empire State Manufacturing Index (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
· TIC Net Long-Term Transactions (U.S., 14:00 GMT)
Foreign direct investment in China fell for a sixth month in April, as faltering global growth and renewed turmoil in financial markets dented company spending in Asia’s biggest economy. Inbound investment ...
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EUR/GBP Testing 80.00 Barrier, As BoE Stops Printing Press
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Largely uneventful session for core bonds
- Core bonds had an insignificant, technical and sentiment-driven session that left bond yields slightly higher in the close. Overnight, negative headline news on JP Morgan and Greece triggered a moderately strong opening of the Bund. Europe will be in the focus today with the publication of the Spanish banking plan and the EU spring forecasts.
- Currencies: EUR/GBP testing 80.00 barrier, as BoE stops printing press
- On Thursday, sentiment on risk turned slightly less negative, even without progress in the Greek debt/election crisis. Nevertheless, the decline in EUR/USD slowed. EUR/GBP reached a minor low just below 0.8000 as the BoE halted its program of asset purchases. For now, we see no ...
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Gold heads for worst weekly fall since March
(Reuters) - Gold slipped more than half a percent on Friday, tracking equities lower, as investors failed to shake off worries about Europe's debt crisis and its impact on global economic growth.
Gold, though traditionally seen as a safe haven, bore the brunt of the sell-offs across risk assets such as equities, industrial metals and oil this week, forcing investors and speculators to sell bullion to cover losses in other markets.
Gold eased $7.87 to $1,585.86 an ounce by 01:08 a.m. EDT (0508 GMT) after shares in Asia were hit by JPMorgan's (JPM.N) $2 billion loss from a failed hedging strategy and by political turmoil in the euro zone. It is poised to fall by more than 3 percent this week, its deepest drop since early March.
"We are still uncertain about what's happening out of the ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 10/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- ECB Monthly Report (EUR, 09:00 GMT)
- Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (ITA, 09:00 GMT)
- Trade Balance +Manufacturing Production (MoM)+ Industrial Production (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Interest Rate Decision (GB, 12:00 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- Trade Balance (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
- Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks (U.S, 14:30 GMT)
Wholesale inventories in the U.S. rose by 0.3% (less than expected) in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Prices for single-family homes climbed in half of U.S. cities in the first quarter as real estate markets stabilized, the National Association of Realtors said in a report yesterday.
According to Bloomberg ...
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EUR/USD Continues to Tumble
The euro continued to tumble vs. its main currency rivals yesterday, as traders remained cautious about investing in riskier assets due to political uncertainty in the euro-zone. The EUR/USD fell to a fresh three-month low during the afternoon session at 1.2929. Turning to today, traders should be prepared for market volatility, as significant indicators from the UK and US are scheduled to be released. Attention should be given to the UK MPC Rate Statement, followed by the US Trade Balance figure and a speech from Fed Chairman Bernanke. Should any of the news lead to additional pessimism in the global economic recovery, riskier currencies like the euro may fall further.
Economic News
USD - Safe Haven Dollar Extends Gains amid Euro-Zone Worries
A lack of news events yesterday helped the ...
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Wall Street dips, mood fragile after Europe elections
The S&P 500 and Nasdaq were little changed Monday, rebounding from steep losses early in the session after election results in Europe clouded the region's outlook as it grapples with a financial crisis.
Financial shares .GSPF were up 0.13 percent, helping to briefly push the S&P into positive territory. Wall Street suffered a sharp decline on Friday, and the S&P racked up its worst weekly performance this year.
Greeks voted out ruling parties in elections on Sunday, dealing a blow to the fragile political consensus that has kept Europe's currency bloc intact through more than two years of crisis. Greece's banking index .FTATBNK slid 13 percent.
"The election results were not a complete surprise, but now investors need to brace for the eventuality of Greece leaving the euro zone," said ...
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Ahead of payrolls, stock futures signal dip
(Reuters) - Stock index futures pointed to a slightly lower open on Wall Street on Friday, with futures for the S&P 500 down 0.12 percent, Dow Jones futures down 0.06 percent and Nasdaq 100 futures down 0.04 percent at 4:50 a.m. EDT (0850 GMT).
European shares were down around 0.8 percent in morning trade, ahead of a potentially tumultuous weekend for European politics where France and Greece have elections.
All eyes will be on the U.S. monthly payrolls figures, due at 1230 GMT. Employers likely increased hiring in April to add 170,000 workers to their payrolls, according to a Reuters survey of economists, up from March's meager print of 120,000, while the rise might not be enough to lower the country's 8.2 percent jobless rate.
After the closing bell, LinkedIn Corp (LNKD.N) reported ...
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