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Labour Market ConditionsTitle:
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose as Expected in April While Resale Prices Posted Solid Gains
U.S. Existing Home Sales Rose as Expected in April While Resale Prices Posted Solid Gains
- Existing home sales in the U.S. rose 3.4% from March's downwardly revised pace to 4.62 million annualized units in April, meeting market expectations.
- The median price of existing homes jumped 10.1% on a year-over-year basis and reached the highest level since July 2010.
- Months' supply of unsold homes rose to 6.6 as homes available for sale surged 9.5%.
- Anecdotal reports noted that the unseasonably warm temperatures seen early this year supported the outsized gain in resale activity in the first quarter (existing home sales were up by an annualized 20% on a quarterly basis), suggesting that some retracement of the recent strength may be in the offing. Today's reported increase in ...
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Pound Drops as Consumer Confidence Worsens
The Great Britain pound declined after a report showed that confidence of Britons worsened last month, spurring speculation that the Bank of England will be forced to perform quantitative easing.
Nationwide Building Society reported that the Consumer Confidence Index fell from 53 in March to 44 in April. Estimates before the report predicted the index to remain stable at 52. Robert Gardner, Nationwide’s Chief Economist, said:
It is not surprising that confidence remains fragile, with the economy shrinking over the past six months and labour market conditions still weak.
He added:
Looking forward, there are a number of one‐off factors that are likely to impact confidence in the months ahead. News that the UK dipped back into recession at the start of the year may further ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/07/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France has elected new president, Francois Hollande who polled about 52% of the votes. Mr Hollande said that he is proud to return hope to people again. He also announced that he would attempt to rework deal regarding sovereign debt in the Euro Zone countries to promote economic expansion.
USD
The smalest payroll increase in last 6 months has not influenced the investors who still do not forecast another wave of recession in the US. Better housing and employment data has encouraged experts to believe that from the fundamental perspective the world's largest economy is on the path to recovery.
GBP
May 7 was a bank holiday in Great Britain.
CHF
The official SNB exchange rate for EUR/CHF is 1.2013 today; yield on 10-year Swiss Confederation bonds ...
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Euro Testing Key Support Levels
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income Weak US payrolls push core bonds higher again
- On Friday, it was weaker US payrolls that helped core bonds eke out more gains, but non-core bonds held up quite well. Spreads even narrowed in the intra-EMU bond markets. We fear that this won't be the case today, as French and Greek election results inject uncertainty into markets.
- Currencies: Euro testing key support levels
- On Friday, trading in the major euro cross rate was rather calm, but the pressure remained to the downside. The US payrolls were unable to change this pattern. This morning, EUR/USD is testing the key 1.2974 support while EUR/GBP is trading south of the 0.8068 level. A sustained break below these levels would raise a red alert for the single currency.
The ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 04/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- U.S. job creation may have weakened in the last few months, but the grounds for sustaining stronger employment growth are more fertile now than have been since the economic recovery began. Europe's labor market, by contrast, is likely to deteriorate further before it gets better.
- Europe's (nonfinancial) corporate sector is highly leveraged. As balance sheet adjustments are made, Europe risks further decreases in investment, higher layoffs, and lower economic growth. These effects are compounded by deleveraging in the public sector.
- U.S. corporations, by contrast, are more profitable and liquid than they have ever been. At some point some of these funds will be unleashed towards new investment, creating a positive ...
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U.S. April Payroll Employment Showed a Disappointing Increase
U.S. April Payroll Employment Showed a Disappointing Increase
- April 2012 non-farm payroll employment rose a weaker than expected 115,000 in the month, which was down from upwardly revised gains in both March of 154,000 (120,000 previously) and February of 259,000 (240,000 previously).
- The separate household survey indicated that unemployment rate dropped to 8.1% from 8.2% in March.
- Government employment declined 15,000 thereby resulting in private employment rising 130,000, which was down from April's 166,000.
- Today's report raised the risk that job growth is slowing going into spring period; however, it may still be the case that the employment numbers during the last two months reflect an offset from outsized gains in the winter period that benefitted from warmer ...
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Asia Session: Is There Going To Be Another Rate Cut By The RBA In June?
As expected the RBA cut its growth and inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 in its quarterly statement on monetary policy, noting that earlier predictions were overly optimistic. Yet, the report was not as dovish as the market was expecting, thus the aussie jumped almost 30 pips immediately following its release.
Domestically, the report towed a familiar line in terms of a two speed economy with the mining sector on one side and the rest of the economy on the other. The bank noted that the assumed high level of AUD and a weak short-term outlook for building construction are expected to weigh on non-mining sectors of the economy. Australia's labour market is a prime example of this, with softness in most parts of the economy being somewhat offset by increases in employment in the mining ...
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Focus on ECB’s Press Conference
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
Expectations are building that today’s ECB press conference could see the central bank turn significantly more dovish., with euro negative consequences. Wednesday’s series of worrisome Eurozone data prints would certainly seem to warrant a rhetorical shift. It has also not gone unnoticed that President Draghi endorsed the concept of a “growth compact” in parliamentary testimony last week for the first time. Investors have also remarked on the meeting’s location – in Barcelona for a change – in the expectation that this will somehow concentrate minds on the gravity of the situation facing the periphery, thus provoking a more dovish outcome.
These observations are not without merit, but market speculation of a possible rate cut – either to ...
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Asia Session: NZD Is Unexpectedly Hit Hard
The kiwi took a hammering on the back of a huge surge in the NZ unemployment rate, with the rate blowing most estimates out of the water with the 6.7% print from a revised 6.4 %. Also, whist employment growth increased slightly more than expected at 0.4% q/q (exp. 0.3%) it is still a fairly soft showing, thus it highlights the problems facing the NZ labour market as the country attempts to regain its footing after the financial crisis and the earthquakes around Christchurch.
There was also a significant jump in the participation rate as workers flooded back into the labour force, both those looking for work and people currently working. Overall, we expect conditions in the labour market will improve during 2012 as a result of reconstruction efforts and a generally improving economic ...
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