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Labor Market RecoveryTitle:
An apprehensive week ahead of the US economy
A new week knocks U.S. doors dear reader amid the release of somewhat medium relevance data, yet to show how far the U.S. economy advanced on different levels, noting the recovery lost some pace but within a modest range.
We’ll start with the consumer credit index for the month of April, which will probably show the defect narrowed to $5.550 billion down from the prior deficit of $6.016 billion, taking into accounts that consumer spending levels witnessed ongoing improvement recently, however the weakness is still dominating amid the obstacles hampering the economic improvement as desired.
Moreover, the U.S. economy will release April’s Wholesale inventories index, which is expected to incline yet below the prior estimates, where demand levels are still somehow week, since wholesalers ...
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Europe Ahead: A hectic week awaits the content with focus on the debt crisis and the rate decisions
Investors are back to the market with a full agenda this week taking us to the rate decisions from the BoE and the ECB, where the developments since the last May meetings have been rapid and downbeat all weighing on expectations for any monetary policy tightening.
The possibility for a rate increase by the Bank of England has been suppressed with the ongoing stream of downbeat data as the first quarter’s 0.3% expansion is surely sluggish enough to support the doves over the MPC hawks as the economy flirts with a double-dip recession. On the other hand, the euro area is struggling with the debt crisis and now signs of a slowing recovery as inflation alone might not be sufficient now for the governing council to continue their pledge to ensure price stability.
Euro Area
This week the ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 06/06/2011
Have We Hit a Soft Patch or Something a Bit Worse?
Most of this week's economic reports came in on the soft side, including Friday's employment report, which showed payrolls rising just 54,000 in May and the unemployment rate rising to 9.1 percent.
The ISM manufacturing survey also weakened much more than expected. The headline index fell 6.9 points to 53.5, with new orders plunging 10.7 points.
Consumer confidence fell in May as consumers expressed more concern about both current and future economic conditions.
Just a Temporary Glitch or Wishful Thinking?
It has been nearly two years since the economic recovery began. But rather than celebration, this milestone has been marked by renewed doubts about the sustainability of the recovery. Virtually all the early data for May ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 04/06/2011
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
It was another busy week of U.S. data releases, but upbeat data was scarce. The elevated uncertainty about the U.S. economic outlook pushed equity markets and fixed-income yields down.
Housing prices tumbled to fresh 9-year lows in March, helping to dent the spirits of U.S. consumers.
Friday's employment report showed that in May only 54,000 jobs were added and that the unemployment rate ticked higher to 9.1%.
While the manufacturing sector decelerated sharply in May, the large service sector is beginning to take over the heavy lifting and growing at a faster rate.
Canada
Despite two major Canadian economic events early in the week, namely Q1 GDP growth and a stand-pat interest rate decision by the Bank of ...
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Weak U.S. jobs data jolts stocks, dollar
(Reuters) - Wall Street capped off a fifth straight week of losses on Friday and Treasuries rose as much slower-than-expected U.S. job growth stoked fear that the world's largest economy was in a protracted slowdown.
The euro hit a one-month high against the dollar on news international aid would be available to Greece as early as July, while the U.S. jobs data hurt the greenback against the yen.
Oil prices traded off their lows after the Institute for Supply Management said the U.S. services sector staged a modest recovery last month from April's slump.
But that was not enough to dispel entirely the unease stoked by the U.S. Labor Department's monthly report, which showed the economy added the fewest jobs since September.
The jobless rate rose to 9.1 percent in May as high energy ...
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Enduring weakening of the U.S key-sector; the "Labor Market"…
Today's world's largest economy Jobs Report came out gloomy and worse than the market forecasts, a report that was patiently awaited for and highly predicted to display once again to which extent the country's labor market remains on being deteriorated despite extreme slender signs of improvement, knowing that this is the major obstacle postponing a full and strong recovery of the economy and is the key barrier that the U.S government is facing throughout the past phase and long-term coming period.
In fact, as an overall, the recovery path remains on track but at a moderate pace and labor conditions remain far from truly recovering as already attested by the Fed this past month while that the present economical conjuncture has lost strength due mainly to the temporary incline of prices ...
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Concern dominates the markets as the U.S. Jobs report might trail projections
We reached the end of a busy week dear reader, where we witnessed a week indulged with key economic fundamentals, noting the U.S. economic conditions paced down relatively in some of the leading sectors, where the economy was not able to pursue desired improvement amid the obstacles from the worst financial crisis since the great depression.
Today all lights will be shed on the most depressed sector since WW2 until now, the U.S. labor sector; the U.S labor department will release the infamous jobs report for May, which will probably show the U.S. was able to add 165 thousand jobs compared to the prior 244 thousand jobs added back in April.
Also the U.S private employers is expected to add 173 thousand jobs compared to the prior compared 268 thousand jobs added, taking into considerations ...
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Forex - Expect the Unexpected from NFP
Forex News and Events:
FX markets have been classically subdued on this Non-Farm Friday as traders brace themselves for a very uncertain report. During this morning’s Asian session, there was speculation that China would use the holiday weekend to hike rates, yet the reaction in regional equity markets was muted. USD has been slightly bid as a bearish expectation on the US economic trajectory has clearly taken hold. EURUSD is at 1.4463 while USDCHF slipped down to new all time lows between 0.8404 to 0.8447. Traders have been cutting risk long positions and heading into safe have trades. USDJPY is being weighed down trading at 80.62.
For developed economies, the trend in economic data has been trending lower spearheaded by the US. A series of disappointing labor readings including ISM ...
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Instant view: Jobless claims fall in latest week
(Reuters) - New claims for unemployment benefits fell less than expected last week, according to a government report on Thursday that could add to fears the labor market recovery has taken a step back.
Nonfarm productivity growth was a touch faster than previously estimated in the first quarter, government data showed on Thursday, while a mild increase in unit labor costs pointed to benign wage inflation.
COMMENTS:
PIERRE ELLIS, SENIOR ECONOMIST, DECISION ECONOMICS, NEW YORK:
"It fell from an upwardly revised level. The Labor Department didn't identify any special factors. Claims are not reaccelerating, which is good news, but the bad news is they seem to have settled at this higher level. It probably adds to the momentum for a not-so-strong increase in May jobs in the Labor Department ...
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