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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 27/03/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
•GfK German Consumer Climate (GER, 06:00 GMT)
•CBI Distributive Trades Survey (GB, 10:00 GMT)
•CB Consumer Confidence (U.S, 14:00 GMT)
•Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks (U.S, 16:45 GMT)
•FOMC Member Fisher Speaks (U.S, 17:20 GMT)
The U.S. unemployment rate has declined faster than the Federal Reserve has predicted, but the jobs market remains far from normal, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke told the National Association for Business Economics Annual Conference 2012. The unemployment rate was at a three-year low of 8.3 percent in February. On the other hand, U.S Pending home sales index fell by 0.5 percent to a reading of 96.5 in February after rising by 2.0 percent to a reading of 97.0 in January, according to a report released by the National ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 27/03/2012
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"If buying of Treasurys gains steam and bond yields fall in the wake of Monday's Bernanke's comments, the dollar could face more pressure against currencies such as the euro"
- Societe Generale (based on CNBC)
Even though the pair is trading slightly above the 1.3291/1.3325 area, it is expected to move southwards in the nearest future as the EU debt risks have not been swept away completely.
EUR/JPY
"The Fed’s stance to support the economic recovery through policy easing and adding liquidity to the market is helping boost sentiment"
- Shinkin Asset Management Co. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/JPY rallied above the 110 level and eased the risks of bearish reversal.
GBP/USD
"This is more of a dollar move than a sterling move. It feels like the market was ...
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Dollars falls versus euro as Fed seen dovish
The dollar slid against the euro and the Swiss franc Monday after remarks by Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke spurred views that the bank could yet flood the market in another round of quantitative easing.
The euro hit a better than three-week high against the greenback as the dollar slid to a similar low against the Swiss franc shortly after Bernanke said that the U.S. economy needs to grow faster to bring down the unemployment rate more.
"At the very least this leaves that door cracked open to QE, but it definitely reaffirms the idea that the Fed is going to keep its foot on the gas pedal, at least in the foreseeable future," said Stewart Hall, a senior currency strategist with RBC Capital Markets in Toronto.
Investors had seen lower chances for more easing from the Fed in recent ...
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US Dollar Weaker on Bernanke’s Comments
US dollar, after showing some strength in earlier trading, has moved lower since Ben Bernanke‘s remarks. Bernanke’s remarks on the US economy have raised doubts about the strength of the recovery, as well as provided clues that a loose monetary policy may not be over with. This has led to a weaker greenback.
Federal Reserve Chair Ben Bernanke mentioned the good news of an improving labor market in his remarks earlier. However, he also said that in order for the economy to improve, the Fed needed to maintain some of its policies in order to stimulate faster economic growth. This seems to indicate that interest rates will remain near zero for a while longer. Many forex traders take this to mean that the US dollar will be offering low yields for quite some time.
With this in mind, the US ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 26/03/2012
Last week, the U.S released mixed economic data, sending the USD fluctuating between gains and losses against its major counterparts. The markets saw, U.S jobless claims fell to the lowest level since February 2008 last week on Thursday. The Department of Labor said the number of individuals filing for initial jobless benefits in the week ending March 17 fell by 5,000 to a seasonally adjusted 348,000, beating expectations for a decline of 3,000 to 350,000. While, on Friday the U.S. Commerce Department said new home sales dropped 1.6% to a 313,000 annual pace, the slowest since October, from a 318,000 annual rate in January and against expectations for an increase to 325,000. The events which are likely to affect the markets this week are; Monday, Fed Chairman Bernanke Speech; Tuesday, ...
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Jobless rates fall in most metro areas
(Reuters) - The unemployment rates in almost all metropolitan areas dropped in January from a year earlier, and a majority were lower than the national rate, the Labor Department said on Friday.
Jobless rates decreased in 345 of the 372 areas, which typically include a city and its surrounding suburbs, and those in Decatur, Alabama, and Monroe, Michigan, dropped the most.
At the same time, 201 areas recorded January unemployment rates below the U.S. rate of 8.8 percent, not seasonally adjusted. Frequently, the Labor Department will adjust jobs numbers to account for seasonal factors such as holiday hiring or weather.
The seasonally adjusted national jobless rate in February and January was 8.3 percent.
While the effects of the recession that began in 2007 were nearly uniform across the ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 23/03/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Housing Indicators Pulled Back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week, the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. While housing indicators painted somewhat of a mixed picture, with nearly all housing market indicators unexpectedly declining on the month, we continue to see real improvement. That said, much of the pullback was due to the mild winter, which likely exacerbated the seasonal adjustment process.
Housing starts unexpectedly fell 1.1 percent to a 698,000-unit pace in February. January starts, however, were upwardly revised to a 706,000-unit pace, the highest level since October 2008.
Housing Indicators Pulled back, but Don't Be Alarmed
This week the economic calendar was chock-full of housing market data. ...
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Investors to cash in Q1 chips, future more opaque
(Reuters) - Investors who have not already done so will cash in their first-quarter chips next week and turn their attention to the next three months, during which they will have to do without central bank bellows to blow stocks effortlessly higher.
World shares as measured by the MSCI index .MIWD00000PUS are up more than 10 percent since January, after the European Central Bank turned its liquidity taps on full, while Italian and Spanish 10-year borrowing costs have plunged from around 7 percent to 5, though they are now picking up again.
The ECB has played the critical part, creating more than a trillion euros of three-year money for banks to feast on, some of which has leached into stock and bond markets. But it is highly unlikely to repeat the process.
Other major central banks seem ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 23/03/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Figures clearly show that the recession in the euro zone is far from over"
- Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING Group
Euro area services and manufacturing output fell by more than expected this month, a sign the economy has slipped into recession.
USD
"Decline in unemployment claims is another indication that the labor market is healing. That's good news for the March payroll report"
- Gus Faucher, a senior economist at PNC Financial Services
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 348 thousand in the week ended March 17 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"The data puts a real dent in hopes that the consumer may be perking up appreciably"
- Howard Archer, an economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. ...
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