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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 27/04/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
First-Quarter GDP Growth Slows
The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, somewhat slower than the consensus had expected. Consumption remained the primary driver of growth as business spending slowed and the government sector continued to scale back spending.
In our U.S. review section this week, we discuss the GDP report in the context of the big miss in durables and consider what it means for business spending going forward. We also look at a very small change in the Fed statement this week that reflects an improving view on the troubled housing sector.
Business Spending Poised for a Slowdown?
Durable goods orders for March were ugly. The 4.2 percent drop was the largest decline since the U.S. ...
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US Employment Data in Focus
The Week Ahead
Highlights
US employment data in focus
Bank of Japan underwhelms
RBA likely to cut
The SNB talks tough on the Swissie
Is the UK economy really that weak?
The Eurozone's growth pact
US employment data in focus
Earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its 2-day policy meeting. The bank kept policy on hold and upgraded the economic assessment, however comments from Ben Bernanke - which did not provide any new insight in our view - kept Treasury yields low, equity markets supported, and the dollar soft with QE3 speculation back into focus.
Fed projections showed upwards revision to real GDP growth with forecasts of 2.4%-2.9% for 2012 up from the prior 2.2%-2.7% estimate and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 7.8%-8% ...
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US growth remains spotted but is forecasted to show a slight weakening
So far growth remain clearly spotted in the superpower and its economy is expanding only moderately as attested by the FOMC members and the Federal Reserve, watching a gradual recovery taking place successfully but remaining on being insufficient on truly decreasing jobless levels of the country to boost an accurate stronger growth.
If truth be told the Bureau of Economic Analysis from the U.S. Commerce Department is highly projected to show that the country's growth rate for the first quarter could have shown a weaker narrowed rate of 2.5 percent from 3.0 percent as a result of the current global and local unending toughened economic conditions shown mainly within the labor and housing markets despite signs of enhancement seen recently in these sectors.
In fact the country's key sector; ...
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The U.S market expects today cheerful labor and housing data
The world's leading economy continues on "expanding moderately" as attested once again by the Federal Open Market Committee along with an official affirmation that clear signs of enhancement are witnessed throughout the country's labor and housing sectors, which will most probably be shown today as well, yet the overall recovery of these activities remains gradual and insufficient to boost strong growth.
In fact on one hand the country's key sector; the labor market, has improved clearly this past period and throughout the recent months as shown by several data released mainly, yet it remains acknowledged that the enhancement pace of this sector remains slow and insufficient as overall jobless levels remain elevated at 8.2 percent.
Never less later on today further cheerful data may be ...
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Once again the Fed kept its rates unchanged and spot only moderate growth…
Today the Federal Open Market Committee decided as accustomed and as already forecasted to keep its Federal Fund target interest rates intact, as expected by the markets, at its historical low of 0.00 percent to 0.25 percent, and attesting once again that the country's economic momentum during this past period was "expanding moderately".
In fact we should not forget that the FOMC members pledged to keep exceptionally low through at least late 2014 to maintain a stronger economic growth and fulfilling a "highly accommodative" monetary policy, the decision that only Jeffery Lacker disagreed on.
As for the country's key sector; the labor market, it has improved clearly this past period and throughout the recent months as shown by several data released mainly from the Commerce Department yet ...
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A slight weaker consumer confidence but better new home sales for the U.S…
Although this overall past period and present economical conjuncture showed enhancement in most of the superpower's sectors activities yet confidence lost some strength mainly as the present growth is not fast enough to reduce unemployment while that the weak housing sector showed better-than-projected data today.
In fact on one hand we watch the world's leading economy consumer confidence of this month, which as we know is released on a monthly basis and assesses consumers' sentiment regarding business conditions, employment and personal income, shed and plunge to 69.2; worse and lower than the prior reading of 70.2 and the market projections of 69.7.
This slight weakening of the confidence of Americans is mainly explained by the recent slow gradual growth expansion that is considered ...
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A bad week for the U.S busineses activities
Although it is crystal clear so far that overall business conditions of the superpower continue on supporting the moderate revival of the country and its growth as shown throughout a variety of better-than forecasted economical data reported and strong cheerful earnings posted by huge local corporations, yet it seems also clear that these conditions weakened unexpectedly this month.
In fact this week showed us on one hand that the manufacturing in the New York region eased significantly showing a lower and much slower expansion throughout this month with in fact the empire manufacturing of this month, which as we know is a monthly survey by the New York Fed over the manufacturing activity in New York State, fell actually to a weak unexpected expansion of 6.56.
While that on the other ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 20/04/2012
U.S. Review
Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend
This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend.
Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note.
Early Spring Brings Payback Period
The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 20/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis is far from over still and I think Spain will be worse before it gets better"
- Henrik Drusebjerg, a senior equity strategist at Nordea Bank AB
Spain sold 2.54 billion euros of debt dated 2014 and 2022 on Thursday, above the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros for the auction.
USD
"Progress in the labor market is not quite as strong as people had hoped, but we are still on a recovery track here"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Economic data does look like it is showing some stabilization"
- Samantha Fitzpatrick, senior ...
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