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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds."
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
European manufacturing and services industries contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services sectors declined to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, said the Markit Economics on Thursday.
USD
"It looks more and more like businesses are hesitating to invest in the face of worsening uncertainties in the and global economy."
- Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 19 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
" ...
Title:
EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
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Natural gas futures end up for second day
(Reuters) - Natural gas futures ended higher on Wednesday for a second straight day, as tighter supply-demand fundamentals and forecasts for warm weather offset early selling on the milder outlook for late next week.
Gas prices, which rallied 9 percent last week, are nearly flat so far this week, with investors cautious about prices near 3-1/2 month highs ahead of a three-day weekend.
NYMEX floor trading will be closed on Monday for the U.S. Memorial Day holiday.
Since posting a 10-year low of $1.90 per million British thermal units in April, nearby futures are up nearly 44 percent amid signs that record production was finally slowing while demand was picking up as more electric utilities switch from coal to cheaper gas for power generation.
Technical traders had been expecting Monday' ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 05/18/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· German PPI (MoM) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
· Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (ITA, 09:00 GMT)
· Spanish Trade Balance (SPAIN, 11:30 GMT)
· Core CPI (MoM) (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
· ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW) ( U.S, 15:30 GMT)
The Philly Fed Index tumbled to a negative 5.8 in May from a positive 8.5 in April and Conference Board's leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a 0.3 percent increase in March, according to an official report released yesterday. While, the Labor Department figures said that the unemployment claims was at a seasonally adjusted level of 370,000 for the week, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure.
Greece’s credit rating was downgraded one level by Fitch ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Stoxx Europe 600 index have dropped for third consecutive day and reached the lowest level since the start of this year as specialists speculate that elections in Greece could take place as early as 10 of June. The index lost 0.5% of its value by noon in London and around 10% from its peak this year in mid-March.
USD
Facebook increases the share offering by 25% to 421.2M shares to collect near $16B. At the offering's price of $34-$38 per share Facebook is rushing towards the largest technology IPO in the history. Production of utilities, mines and factory's in the U.S. surpassed expected 0.6% level and increased by 1.1% in April.
GBP
The number of unemployed people for January-March decreased to 2.63 million, 45,000 down on the quarter, the Office for ...
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Oil eases to around $113 on weak Chinese data
(Reuters) - Oil fell to around $113 per barrel on Thursday as weaker-than-expected Chinese trade data highlighted concerns over energy demand in the world's second-largest oil consumer.
Downbeat comments by the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries also weighed on the market. The group's monthly report said oil supply was plentiful and in excess of market requirements.
Brent crude oil futures for June lost 10 cents to $113.10 a barrel by 07.06 a.m. EDT after settling at $113.20 on Wednesday, up 47 cents. U.S. crude fell 40 cents to $96.41 per barrel.
Brent has fallen sharply from highs of around $126 per barrel in April due to worries about political turmoil in Europe and a growing conviction that the market is well supplied.
Analysts remained downbeat about prospects for ...
Title:
Oil reverses losses on unexpected U.S. product draws
Brent crude futures trimmed earlier losses, popping above $112 on Wednesday, supported by a larger than expected drop in U.S. gasoline inventories.
Any bounce was capped, however, by political turmoil in the debt-laden euro zone and a jump in U.S. crude stocks to the highest level since 1990.
Brent crude was up 5 cents to $112.78 a barrel by 1551 GMT, having fallen to as low as $113.31 earlier. Brent had been dropping for a sixth straight session, its longest losing streak since the middle of 2010.
U.S. crude was at $96.54 down 47 cents.
The official weekly inventory data from the U.S. Energy Information Administration (EIA) showed gasoline inventories dropped by 2.61 million barrels in the week to May 4, compared with analysts' forecast for a 100,000 barrel draw.
The data also showed ...
Title:
Euro Testing Key Support Levels
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income Weak US payrolls push core bonds higher again
- On Friday, it was weaker US payrolls that helped core bonds eke out more gains, but non-core bonds held up quite well. Spreads even narrowed in the intra-EMU bond markets. We fear that this won't be the case today, as French and Greek election results inject uncertainty into markets.
- Currencies: Euro testing key support levels
- On Friday, trading in the major euro cross rate was rather calm, but the pressure remained to the downside. The US payrolls were unable to change this pattern. This morning, EUR/USD is testing the key 1.2974 support while EUR/GBP is trading south of the 0.8068 level. A sustained break below these levels would raise a red alert for the single currency.
The ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 04/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- U.S. job creation may have weakened in the last few months, but the grounds for sustaining stronger employment growth are more fertile now than have been since the economic recovery began. Europe's labor market, by contrast, is likely to deteriorate further before it gets better.
- Europe's (nonfinancial) corporate sector is highly leveraged. As balance sheet adjustments are made, Europe risks further decreases in investment, higher layoffs, and lower economic growth. These effects are compounded by deleveraging in the public sector.
- U.S. corporations, by contrast, are more profitable and liquid than they have ever been. At some point some of these funds will be unleashed towards new investment, creating a positive ...
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