Keep The Fed’s Key

Forex News and Events: Yesterday’s European session was a breather for the Euro area as German GDP came in much better than expected at 0.5% q-o-q. The strength of Germany’s numbers pulled EU’s GDP higher to 0.0% against a forecast -0.2%, avoiding a technical recession after last quarter’s -0.3% GDP. Nevertheless, both German and Euro zone economic sentiments were lower, underscoring a fading institutional optimism over economic health. GDP for the biggest European economies after Germany were worrisome, with France generating no growth in the first quarter of 2012 while Italy and Spain’s economies contracted by 0.8% and 0.3% respectively over the same period. The situation in Greece is still moving towards a new round of elections with Independent Greeks party leader Kammemos announcing ...

Consumer sentiment in the U.S. rose to 77.8 in May from the final April reading of 76.4, according to a report released by Reuters and the University of Michigan on Friday. While, the Labor Department said on Friday that its producer price index fell by 0.2 percent in April. According to Bloomberg news, Sales at U.S. retailers probably slowed in April as the weather turned more seasonable and consumers took a breather following a pre-Easter holiday buying spree, economists said before a report this week. The projected 0.2 percent gain in purchases would follow a 0.8 percent advance in March, according to the median forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures on May 15. Events in the U.S, likely to affect the markets this week are: Monday; a ...

Fundamental News G20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors reached an agreement to lift the funding resources of the International Monetary Fund by over $430 billion as the Eurozone debt crisis dent global growth. “This is the result of a broad international cooperative effort that includes a significant number of countries," the International Monetary and Financial Committee and the Group of 20 Finance Ministers and Central Bank Governors said in a joint statement issued in Washington late Friday. Bloomberg news reported that, the biggest gain in consumer spending in a year probably helped the U.S. economy keep expanding in the first quarter even as fuel costs climbed, economists said before a report this week. Gross domestic product, the value of all goods and services the ...

Currency weakness remains firmly in fashion as policy-makers continue to adjust to the perverse post-crash environment. Although notionally committed to inflation targets, central banks increasingly have effectively been mandated to seek weaker currencies rather than price stability. The Federal Reserve is likely to keep the quantitative easing carrot within peripheral vision which will also act as an important constraint to dollar gains even with a slightly more confident statement. The Fed will stay on guard and be ready to stamp down on any signs of excessive dollar bullishness. The global policy risks still make buying US currency dips remains the best strategy, but patience will certainly be required. The Bank of Japan and Finance Ministry will act to block any appreciation of the ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Magyar Nemzeti Bank may keep its benchmark interest rate unchanged at 7% for a third straight month, analysts said on Tuesday. The central bank is likely to stick to highest interest rate in European Union due to a delay in receiving IMF loan. The Forint strengthened 0.3% versus Euro to HUF 290. USD US February core durable goods orders reading was in line with the forecast at 1.6%, after a sharp fall of 3.0% in January. Durable goods orders rose by 2.2% last month, underperforming versus the forecast of 3.0%. GBP British FTSE 100 declined on Wednesday as data showed the revised British GDP in the 4th quarter declined 0.3% compared to previous estimate of 0.2%. Banks and miners drove the index lower with Barclays PLC and Lloyds Banking Group PLC each ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD Ranges were broadly flat overnight but the dollar has checked some of its advance amid fears that data is still not strong enough in theUSfor the Fed to continue allowing the market to price out expectations for monetary easing. On Friday theUniversityofMichiganconsumer sentiment index slipped to 74.3 in early March from 75.3 in February; industrial production was unchanged m/m in February; and the y/y reading for core consumer prices slowed to 2.2% in February from 2.3% in January. Yet, this should not mask the positive momentum in theUSeconomy, as theUniversityofMichiganreport included key improvements in labour market assessments, while manufacturing production was up 0.3% m/m in February. Moreover, at a 1.9% annual rate in the past ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR The eurozone crisis appears to have "taken a pause for breath" - Wolfgang Franz, ZEW president An index of German investor confidence rose to 22.3 in March, the highest level in more than 20 months, from 5.4 in February, said the ZEW Centre for European Economic Research on Tuesday. ZEW sentiment is based on a survey conducted among 350 German investors and analysts, who are asked to assess the six-month economic outlook. USD "The economy is moving towards a self-sustaining recovery" - Jeffrey Saut, chief investment strategist at Raymond James & Associates U.S. month on month retail sales grew at a fastest pace in five months in February, suggesting the worlds largest economy is gaining steam even despite rising gasoline prices, said the Census Bureau on ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR European governments urged Spain to implement larger budged deficit cuts to prevent debt crisis from returning to the region. 10 days ago Spanish PM Rajoy unilaterally increased Spain's deficit target to 5.8% of GDP for year 2012 and claimed the country will aim to attain region's common target of maximum 3% in 2013. The announcement was not praised by region's officials who recently signed fiscal discipline treaty. USD US federal budget deficit widened more than expected in February, reported Department of the Treasury. The US federal budget balance declined to minus 231.7 billion US Dollars on a seasonally adjusted basis in February as compared to minus 27.4 billion US Dollars in January. Experts predicted the deficit to attain 229.3 billion US ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD The dollar-positive afterglow from Friday’s strong US payrolls report lasted into the Asia session on Monday. EURUSD is now firmly back on the 1.30 handle, and both AUD and NZD are struggling. This is partly due to the absence of overnight drivers given the empty calendar. But there are forces at work too – it is becoming increasingly clear that the psychology around the US dollar is changing. The dollar no longer strengthens only in the presence of risk aversion and now stronger US economic data is just as likely to do the trick. This change in character paves the way for further dollar gains over the coming months as market expectations for further Fed easing recede. Friday’s IMM positioning data shows that a longer term structural ...