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Debt Woes in a Cosmic Bear Market
Ursa Major in the sky
Time to sell stocks is nigh
Last night was bright and clear in France. We could see the Milky Way stretched out against the dark background.
And there was the bear…Ursa Major.
Last week, stocks got hammered…mauled…beaten up…
Market veterans said they had never seen the buy/sell ratio more lopsided towards selling.
But why?
In the past couple of weeks we’ve seen zombies rising up and markets crashing down. Not the way we usually like it. But interesting…no?
In the weekend news comes word that the Social Security Disability program is almost broke – thanks to so many claims.
And California’s official joblessness figure is at 12%.
Want more bad news? What’s wrong with you, dear reader? Do you get a thrill from the suffering of others?
Of course not! You just ...
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Slowing GDP and Fragile Sentiments Remain the Focus of the World’s Leading Economy
The Superpower returns with a new week, following in fact a busy week that dominated global sentiments, pointing the coming week should be addressed as the “GDP Week” as investors are impatiently anticipating the gross Domestic Product report next Friday along with further manufacturing and housing data due this week.
If truth be told, Most of the economic releases we saw throughout the past week confirmed the downside pressures that seems to be choking the revival of the United States economy and the global economy as well, and thereby fueling speculations the Federal Reserve could actually run new stimulus by the end of the this year, that unless the economy returns on the right track of revival.
The week will start with housing data, having new homes sales index for the month of July, ...
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Obama accuses Congress of holding back recovery
(Reuters) - A vacationing President Barack Obama accused Congress on Saturday of holding back the economic recovery by blocking "common sense" measures he said would create jobs and help growth.
In remarks recorded on Wednesday on his campaign-style bus tour in Illinois and aired during his holiday in Martha's Vineyard, Massachusetts, Obama said the stalled construction, trade and payroll tax bills could give a boost to the economy.
"The only thing preventing us from passing these bills is the refusal by some in Congress to put country ahead of party. That's the problem right now. That's what's holding this country back," the president said in his weekly radio address, which is also transmitted on the Internet.
Wall Street stocks have suffered four weeks of losses because of investor ...
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Risk Sentiment Stumbles Again, Waiting for Jackson Hole
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Risk sentiment stumbles again
Waiting for Jackson Hole
Are 'safe-havens' due for a short-term pullback?
SNB intervention risk is here to stay
The ECB calms sovereign debt markets
Key data and events to watch next week
Risk sentiment stumbles again
Risk assets (stocks, commodities, JPY- and CHF-crosses, and commodity currencies) stabilized further to start this past week, but suffered what seems likely to be the first in a series of periodic relapses, as market conviction remains extremely low. We remain cautiously optimistic that the sell-off in the first half of August marked the low point in the current risk retrenchment, but we are keenly aware that risks remain skewed to the downside. In support of the view that a medium-term bottom ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 20/08/2011
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
With German growth slowing to a crawl, Europe's economy is sputtering as its ability to solve its fiscal woes is increasingly being called into question.
The U.S. economy is also showing continued signs of weakness, raising the sobering prospect that the uncertainties of the last month may have begun bleeding into the real economy.
The risk of a shallow recession is rising. However, we still feel that marginally positive growth is the more likely scenario. Once August data begins trickling in next month, we will have a better sense of the real economic damage wrought by this month's financial upheavals.
Canada
Bank of Canada Governor Mark Carney and Finance Minister Jim Flaherty were called to testify on the ...
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Analysis: Growth takes back seat as markets bay for budget cuts
The odds on a new recession are shortening, but don't expect governments to swap the hair shirt of fiscal austerity for something more comfortable.
Financial markets, worried though they are about anemic growth, simply will not let them -- even if the outcome is an even slower rate of expansion that risks driving debt-to-GDP levels higher, prompting more anxiety that, in a vicious circle, further undermines growth.
"At the moment, the markets have priced in a very slow growth environment for the foreseeable future but have not yet priced in recession," said Andrew Milligan, head of global strategy at Standard Life Investments in Edinburgh.
"They would welcome measures that even moderately raised that slow growth path for the next few years. But markets would react very poorly if they ...
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Philadelphia Fed index slumps, home sales fall
(Reuters) - Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region plummeted in August, falling to the lowest level since March 2009, while existing home sales unexpectedly dropped in July, tempering hopes for a revival of economic recovery.
The number of Americans claiming new jobless benefits rose last week also and consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in four months in July, highlighting the challenges facing the Federal Reserve.
"Obviously, a very sharp contraction in orders is bad news (in the Philadelphia Fed index), " said Pierre Ellis, senior economist at Decision Economics in New York.
"It may be tied to the financial markets since the survey overlaps the last couple weeks of financial market volatility. It may have impacted corporate sentiment.
"It's hard to squeeze any good ...
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Core CPI Inflation Rises at the Fastest Pace since December 2009
Core CPI Inflation Rises at the Fastest Pace since December 2009, while Jobless Claims Rise above 400K
Data from the United States signaled price pressures increased in July, as the consumer price index confirmed yesterday’s PPI, which showed that headline inflation rates increased in July, while the jobless claims signaled that the labor market is still suffering from weakness, as employers are still reluctant to add new jobs amid the huge uncertainty that continues to surround the outlook for growth.
The consumer price index was released by the U.S. Commerce Department for the month of July, where CPI increased by 0.5% above median estimates of 0.2% and the prior drop of 0.2%, while compared with a year earlier, CPI increased by 3.6% in line with the prior rise and above median ...
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Jobless claims up, gasoline lifts consumer prices
(Reuters) - The number of Americans claiming new jobless benefits rose last week and consumer prices increased at the fastest pace in four months in July, highlighting the challenges facing the Federal Reserve.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 9,000 to a seasonally adjusted 408,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday, above economists' expectations for a rise to 400,000.
Another report from the Labor Department showed the Consumer Price Index increased 0.5 percent in July, the largest gain since March, after falling 0.2 percent in June. That was above economists' expectations for a 0.2 percent gain.
Gasoline, which rose 4.7 percent after falling 6.8 percent the prior month, accounted for about half of the rise in CPI last month.
But core CPI -- excluding food ...
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