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EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
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Jobless claims hold steady at 370,000
New claims for unemployment benefits were unchanged last week, according to government data on Thursday that will do little to ease concerns about a recent slowdown in jobs growth.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits held steady at a seasonally adjusted 370,000, the Labor Department said.
The prior week's figure was revised up to 370,000 from the previously reported 367,000.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims falling to 365,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a better measure of labor market trends, fell 4,750 to 375,000.
The data comes on the heels of three straight months of slowing employment gains. Companies added 115,000 new jobs to their payrolls in April, the fewest in six months.
Thursday's report on claims covered ...
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Central Banks' to the Rescue?
Central Banks' to the Rescue?
The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control).
The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone"
However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...
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Jobless claims fall, trade gap widens
The number of Americans submitting new applications for jobless benefits edged down last week, easing concerns the labor market was deteriorating after April's weak employment growth.
While the claims data indicated the economy remained on a moderate growth path, a report from the Commerce Department showing a widening in the trade deficit in March suggested economic growth was much slower in the first quarter than initially believed.
New claims for state unemployment benefits slipped 1,000 to a seasonally adjusted 367,000, the Labor Department said on Thursday. The prior week's figure was revised up to 368,000 from the previously reported 365,000.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims inching up to 369,000 last week. The four-week moving average for new claims, considered a ...
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All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64.
USD
Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%.
GBP
Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 ...
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Major Currency Cross Rates Little Changed Ahead Of The Payrolls
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income ECB can't move global bonds
- Global core bonds ended the session unchanged, as initial disappointment that the ECB wasn't more dovish dissipated fast. Today's payrolls are key and might decide whether the 6-week rally is over or has one more leg.
Currencies: Major currency cross rates little changed ahead of the payrolls
- EUR/USD gained temporarily during the ECB press conference as Draghi was less dovish than some in the market had expected. However, the move was technically insignificant as sentiment on risk remained fragile. Today, the payrolls are the key factor for (currency) trading. Investors might stay cautions on the euro to avoid this weekend's political event risk.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities dropped for a ...
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Oil drops two percent on economic woes, awaits U.S. jobs data
(Reuters) - Crude oil futures tumbled 2 percent on Thursday as more signs of slowing U.S. economic growth encouraged investors to book profits on prices that had hit near the top of the current range, and as markets awaited a key U.S. jobs report on Friday.
The U.S. jobs market likely rebounded in April with hirings forecast to have increased, but optimism about that outlook was dented after data showed a slower-than-expected expansion in the vast service sector and retail sales fell.
Adding to bearish sentiment, an OPEC official said the producers' group was working hard to bring down oil prices to prevent demand from sliding and that total OPEC output was far in excess of its official target.
"Crude prices hit the top of their trading range recently and so people are selling and are ...
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Oil tumbles as economy, OPEC weigh
(Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Thursday after OPEC said it was unhappy with high prices and disappointing economic data helped paint a gloomy outlook for the world economy, reviving concerns about a drop in demand.
Brent crude futures dropped below their 100-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since January, while U.S. crude fell by $2 during the session.
Worries about the euro zone also increased after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, while its president cautioned that the outlook for the region was subject to downside risks.
Unemployment in the euro zone is at a record 15-year high, according to the EU's statistics office.
"I think Europe is flooded with crude and funds are liquidating their positions," said an oil trader with a European oil ...
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