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Looking Beyond Debt, Growth is Stalling
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Looking beyond debt, growth is stalling
US debt debate unresolved
Europe Reaches the Summit
New Zealand recovery and Kiwi flying higher
Key data and events to watch next week
Looking beyond debt, growth is stalling
The European debt crisis and the US debt ceiling debate have dominated headlines and driven market action in recent weeks, but we think the real story unfolding is that of slowing growth in major economies. Just in the past week, the Eurozone ZEW survey, Eurozone consumer confidence, and Eurozone composite PMI's all fell by more than expected. In Germany, the manufacturing PMI new orders index fell to 47.6, indicating contraction ahead in the core's growth engine. In China, the MNI July flash manufacturing PMI survey dropped from ...
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Jobless rates jump in 28 states in June
(Reuters) - Jobless rates jumped in June from the month before in more than half of the U.S. states as sinking public employment reversed the trend of steadily improving labor conditions in the first half of 2011, Labor Department data released on Friday showed.
Altogether, 28 states and the District of Columbia registered unemployment rate increases from the month before and eight states had rate decreases. From a year before, the rates dropped in 39 states and rose in eight states and the District of Columbia, Labor Department data showed.
In May, only 13 states and the District registered increases over the month and only four states had increases over the year.
The unemployment rate in Nevada rose to 12.4 percent from 12.1 percent in May, in the first rise this year. The state ...
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Euro surges post-summit
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
EURUSD staged a fierce three big-figure rally heading into the North America close as the details of the Eurozone Summit agreement were first leaked and then announced. Apart from an increase in EFSF flexibility, more measures such as a “Marshall Plan” for Greece and other countries and credit enhancement for collateral to guarantee continued financing for Greek banks from the ECB were agreed upon. Overall, Greece hoped to achieve a 20% reduction in the net present value of its debt burden using maturity extensions, interest rate reductions and also private sector participation, in a comprehensive package worth EUR160 bn. There are many areas where more details are needed, such as private sector participation and how it would be viewed by the ...
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Regional factory rebound, jobless claims up
(Reuters) - Factory activity in the Mid-Atlantic region bounced back in July, lifting hopes of a pick-up in economic growth in the third quarter.
However, a rise in the number of Americans filing new claims for unemployment benefits suggested the reacceleration in output would not be as strong as had previously anticipated.
The Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank said its business activity index rose to 3.2 from minus 7.7 in June, which was the lowest since July 2009. The rise beat economists' expectations for a reading of 2.0.
A reading above zero indicates expansion in the region's manufacturing.
"It does lend support to the view that the economy, or at least the industrial sector, may be pulling out of its recent soft patch," said Peter Buchanan, an economist at CIBC World Markets in ...
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US Philadelphia Fed rose this month significantly and above the market forecast
Despite the gloomy jobless claims data released today by the country's labor department, some optimism returned back as soon as this month survey conducted by the Philadelphia Federal Reserve Bank questioning manufacturers in the Third Federal Reserve District on general business conditions; Philadelphia Fed, inclined considerably and above market projections.
If truth be told the world's leading economy Philadelphia Fed of this month climbed up to 3.2 percent from a prior reading of actually -7.7 percent while that the market projected only an incline of 2.0 percent; indicating a positive outlook from manufacturers and suggesting therefore a recent increased production which will of course support the current slowed down revival of the country and contribute to some economic growth.
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The U.S jobless claims came out gloomy and even worse than forecasts…
Certainly the U.S ongoing deteriorated labor market showed and continues on showing slender signs of improvement as already attested by the Fed and FOMC members but overall activities of the crucial sector remain on struggling strongly to entirely recover and permit accordingly a full revival of the superpower to watch today worse-than forecasted inclined jobless claims reported once again.
In fact the US Labor Department released today on one hand the initial jobless claims of July 16 that came in at 418 thousand; worse than the projected 410 thousand and in fact higher and worse than a prior reading of 405 thousand while that on the other hand the continuing claims for July 09 came in lower at 3698 thousand, which is lower this time than the market forecasts of 3705 thousand with the 4- ...
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Jobless claims rise above expectations
New claims for unemployment benefits rose more than expected last week, a government report showed on Thursday, pointing to a labor market that is struggling to regain momentum after job growth faltered in the last two months.
Initial claims for state unemployment benefits increased 10,000 to a seasonally adjusted 418,000, the Labor Department said.
Economists polled by Reuters had forecast claims rising to 410,000. The prior week's figure was revised up to 408,000 from the previously reported 405,000.
The claims data covered the survey period for the closely watched nonfarm payrolls count for July. Initial claims dropped 11,000 between the June and July survey periods, suggesting a modest improvement in payrolls after June's paltry 18,000 gain.
A rise in layoffs held back payroll ...
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Euro declines as Junker says Greek default is a possibility
The European common currency fell against its major counterparts with the start of the euro leaders Summit at 11:00 GMT in Brussels, where the leader of the European Finance Ministers, Jean-Claude Junker, said the possibility that Greece faces a selective default can not be avoided.
Today, the leaders seek to pass a second rescue fund for Greece in addition to introducing measures that prevent the spread of contagion to other highly-indebted nations in the region, especially Italy and Spain.
The euro pared its earlier advance when it rose after Merkel and Sarkozy announced that they agreed on measures, which they said will be announced in the meeting, to pass a second bailout for the debt-strapped Greece.
However, the euro retreated after the release of downbeat data that showed that ...
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The superpower's jobless claims could have slightly rose
The superpower's jobless claims could have slightly rose while that its business conditions may have enhanced considerably
So far recent economic data and crucial federal statements all confirming one idea; a slower revival of the superpower with today the country's jobless claims forecasted to gloomily rise faintly to the upside while that the manufacturing and business conditions could have strongly enhanced this month.
If truth be told the unremitting deteriorated labor market remains on weighting down on overall consumption all over the U.S soil and overall economic activities of the several sectors while that this past month retail sales were for the most part supported by a higher and increase demand on automobiles as auto sales.
Accordingly today the country's labor department ...
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