ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Job News SuggestsTitle:
EURCHF Move Provides Temporary Excitement
Forex News and Events:
Risk appetite has recovery marginally in the Asian session as the lack of Europe-negative headlines allowed risk seekers to pick up bargains. EURUSD was able to rally off the 1.2519 lows trading up to 1.2579. One of the more tangible drivers of today’s renewed positive sentiment has been the optimistic tone out of the Iran nuclear talks. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, stated "there is a positive atmosphere.” Oil went bid in the European session as WTI traded swiftly to $91.31. Yesterday’s move of the day was in the EURCHF where speculation on exactly what happened is still dominating conversation. After a month of inactivity around the 1.2010 level (vols compressed to nothing), EURCHF jumped suddenly over 60 pips during the European ...
Title:
Markets vs. Technocrats
Forex News and Events:
Over the past few days, the media has been relaying comments suggesting leaders are backing the stay of Greece in the EMU. For starters the G8 stressed the importance for Greece to remain in the monetary union regardless of the discord over how to best tackle the crisis. During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, former Greek PM insisted that an exit would yield “catastrophic” consequences for the country itself and “far reaching” implications for the EU. During yesterday’s European session however, EU officials stated they have agreed over a teleconference call with Eurogroup Work Group (EWG) that each nation in the EMU must prepare an individual contingency plan in case of an exit. The EUR sank against the USD to its lowest level since July 2010 at 1.2544, down 5. ...
Title:
Euro Succeeds Short Squeeze
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather
- Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode.
- Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze
- On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis.
The Sunrise Headlines
- US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...
Title:
Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
Title:
Euro Sell-Off Accelerates As Greece Will Hold Now Elections
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Fresh elections in Greece further support core bonds
- German bund came off the contract highs at the start of the session on better German Q1 GDP data. The move didn't last long however and the announcement of fresh Greek elections marked an intraday U-turn. This morning, the German Bund future and US Note future once again reach new contract highs.
- Currencies: euro sell-off accelerates as Greece will hold now elections.
- On Tuesday morning it looked temporary that the euro might enjoy some breathing space as the German Q1 growth was much stronger than expected. However, the rebound had no momentum at all. The euro was again hammered as talks on the formation of the Greek government collapsed. Is the euro heading for a free fall? ...
Title:
EUR/GBP Testing 80.00 Barrier, As BoE Stops Printing Press
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Largely uneventful session for core bonds
- Core bonds had an insignificant, technical and sentiment-driven session that left bond yields slightly higher in the close. Overnight, negative headline news on JP Morgan and Greece triggered a moderately strong opening of the Bund. Europe will be in the focus today with the publication of the Spanish banking plan and the EU spring forecasts.
- Currencies: EUR/GBP testing 80.00 barrier, as BoE stops printing press
- On Thursday, sentiment on risk turned slightly less negative, even without progress in the Greek debt/election crisis. Nevertheless, the decline in EUR/USD slowed. EUR/GBP reached a minor low just below 0.8000 as the BoE halted its program of asset purchases. For now, we see no ...
Title:
All Eyes on BoE
Forex News and Events:
Bank of England stands to make a crucial decision today as turmoil hinders most of its peer Euro Zone economies. UK’s GDP contracted in the last quarter of 2011 by a revised 0.3%, and inflation remained higher than the 2% average target set by the BoE. During the last weeks, economic data in services and manufacturing were mainly affected by rising petroleum prices and austerity budget cuts biting deep into consumer / household spending. But MPC member Adam Posen, hitherto a fervent supporter of QE stated: “My own personal view is that I think the economy is stronger than what data is going to show”. The central bank last increased its asset purchase program target by 18% in February to GBP325bn as the money supply gauge M4 dipped heavily, suggesting a tightening of ...
Title:
Euro Testing Key Support Levels
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income Weak US payrolls push core bonds higher again
- On Friday, it was weaker US payrolls that helped core bonds eke out more gains, but non-core bonds held up quite well. Spreads even narrowed in the intra-EMU bond markets. We fear that this won't be the case today, as French and Greek election results inject uncertainty into markets.
- Currencies: Euro testing key support levels
- On Friday, trading in the major euro cross rate was rather calm, but the pressure remained to the downside. The US payrolls were unable to change this pattern. This morning, EUR/USD is testing the key 1.2974 support while EUR/GBP is trading south of the 0.8068 level. A sustained break below these levels would raise a red alert for the single currency.
The ...
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
|