Investment Banking After A Restructuring

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Hunt for yield - Following horrible French and German PMI readings, core bonds set new highs. The German 10-yr yield set an all time low at 1.35% and this initiated for the first time a “hunt for yield” trade into Belgian, Austrian and French bonds. The trade was most visible at the longer end of the curve, resulting in a bull flattening. - Currencies: Another day, another new correction low for EUR/USD - On Thursday, the decline of EUR/USD was extended. However, given the flood of negative news, the damage could have been worse. EUR/GBP struggles to hold above the 0.8000 barrier. Today, the calendar is thin. However, one can expect investors to stay cautious going into a long weekend. This is no help for the euro The Sunrise ...

Highlights - An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone. - Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated. - However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment. - If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...

(Reuters) - Markets extended gains in Asia on Tuesday with investors hunting for bargains in shares beaten down to 2012 lows late last week, as hopes grew that Europe could agree on fresh action to tackle its debt crisis while promoting growth. A Chinese media report saying Beijing will accelerate infrastructure investments to combat slowing growth lifted Hong Kong and Chinese shares by 1.2 percent .HSI and 0.6 percent .SSEC respectively. European shares looked likely to extend gains, with financial spreadbetters predicting that major European markets .FTSE .FCHI .GDAXI would open as much as 1.0 percent higher. U.S. stock futures were up 0.1 percent. .EU .L .N MSCI's broadest index of Asia-Pacific shares outside Japan .MIAPJ0000PUS climbed 1.4 percent, having recovered on Monday from a ...

(Reuters) - On December 8 last year, Mario Draghi sat down to chair his second policy meeting as European Central Bank president. Wearing the same understated, dark blue tie he had sported when he led the ECB to a surprise interest rate cut at his first meeting as president a month earlier, Europe's most powerful banker wanted to hear his colleagues' arguments on what action to take this time. The meeting, held on the 36th floor of the ECB's glass and steel Frankfurt headquarters, opened with recommendations from veteran policymaker and chief economist Juergen Stark, a German, according to two people present. Made in the Bundesbank's inflation-fighting mould, Stark felt the Council should wait to see how price pressures developed before moving again. Inflation was running at 3 percent, ...

(Reuters) - The euro succumbed to profit taking on Friday while shares were flat after Greece as expected successfully closed a bond swap needed to avert an unruly default, with market attention turning to focus on key U.S. jobs data. Europe's FTSEurofirst 300 .FTEU3 index of blue chip shares was up 0.1 percent at 1,076 by 0943 GMT, after Greece won strong acceptance from private creditors for a bond swap that will ease its massive debt burden and clear the way for a new bailout to help it meet bond payments due later this month. "In the near term, fears of a ‘hard default' should recede, assuming parliament votes in this legislation. But Greece's political situation remains unstable," said Sarah Hewin, senior economist at Standard Chartered Bank. The FTSEurofirst index is still down ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "It is giving us an insurance policy against having any liquidity shock" - Andrea Beltratti, chairman at Intesa Sanpaolo SpA The European Central Bank Wednesday allotted 529.5 billion euros in cheap three-year loans to 800 lenders in effort to boost the euro-area economy. USD "This shows a steady improvement despite all the volatility in stock prices we had last year and shows that we are nowhere near lapsing back to recession" - Tim Ghriskey, chief investment officer at Solaris Group The U.S. economy expanded at a faster pace than expected, adding to signs the recovery is gaining steam. Gross domestic product grew three per cent in the fourth quarter, announced the Bureau of Economic Analysis on Wednesday. GBP "Despite the recent pick up, housing market ...

(Reuters) - Tortuous negotiations over a second bailout for Greece are set to come to a head on Wednesday, putting fragile market confidence to the test on the same day data is tipped to show the euro zone is entering a mild recession. U.S. retail sales and the release of minutes from the last Federal Reserve rate-setting meeting, data on UK inflation and unemployment, more corporate earnings and a Bank of Japan policy meeting also stand on the market's radar. But it is Greece and a March 20 deadline, when the country must find 14 billion euros ($18.6 billion) to meet debt repayments or face the prospect of a chaotic default, that will hold the market's attention. Euro zone officials have said February 15 marks a cutoff points for agreement on a new bailout deal, without which Greece ...

(Reuters) - Stocks edged higher on Tuesday as investors awaited the outcome of discussions on a bailout package for Greece that is critical to the country avoiding a chaotic default. Greek officials worked on the draft of a text on the 130-billion-euro bailout plan that will be put to political leaders for approval while strikers protesting against more austerity tussled with police outside parliament. A light U.S. economic calendar this week shifted investor focus back to the euro zone. With the S&P 500 up nearly 7 percent this year the market has grown hesitant before Greek leaders put pen to paper on the terms of the deal. An improving technical picture for equities, reasonable earnings, better economic data and optimism over Europe's debt crisis were all boosting stocks, said Marc ...

(Reuters) - The euro was underpinned on Tuesday by hopes a way would be found to push through a second bailout deal for Greece, though fresh signs of exposure to Europe's economic troubles among leading banks rekindled investor unease, sending shares lower. U.S. stock index futures pointed to the unresolved Greek deal weighing on Wall Street at the open, ahead of Senate testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke that may grab the spotlight at 1500 GMT (10 a.m. EST) after last week's strong jobs data. Greece's prime minister and leaders of its main political parties are set to resume talks later Tuesday on new austerity measures demanded by the EU in return for another bailout. The deal needs to be approved by February 15 if the money is to be available in time to meet a March ...