Inevitable Market Correction

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Global core bonds take a breather - Investors remained mostly sidelined in an uneventful session on Friday. The G-8 meeting stressed the need for growth, besides fiscal consolidation and sees Greece staying inside EMU. This shouldn’t surprise markets today. With a razor thin calendar, trading might start the week in a lackluster mode. - Currencies: Euro succeeds short squeeze - On Friday, the decline of the euro halted and EUR/USD succeeded a cautious rebound, even as uncertainty on the EMU debt crisis persisted. Technical considerations will also dominate trading today as the G8 meeting provided no high profile measures to address the debt crisis. The Sunrise Headlines - US Equities rose for a second consecutive session on ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Core bonds higher at first, but gave back gains in US session - Fears about Greece and Spain continued to boost core bonds, but a rumours, later confirmed, that the EFSF would today disburse a tranche of the Greek bail-out loan triggered some correction and erased part of the German bond gains and almost all of the US ones. Today, the BoE decision on QE may affect overall bond markets. - Currencies: euro extends its trip South as speculation on Greek exit is growing - On Wednesday, trading on global markets was still dominated by negative headlines on Europe. This weighed on the euro. After all, the decline of EUR/USD developed in an orderly way even as several EMU policymakers pondered the option of a Greek exit. Today, the BoE holds ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "We won’t get an economic improvement anytime soon in Europe" - Alexander Krueger, chief economist at Bankhaus Lampe KG Euro area manufacturing contracted for a seventh consecutive month, said the Institute for Supply Management on Thursday. An index measuring manufacturing activity rose to 49 in February from 48.8 in January. USD "The economy is expanding, but the data is choppy and somewhat inconsistent" - John Herrmann, president of Herrmann Forecasting LLC The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly to 351 thousand in the week ended February 25 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday. GBP "U.K. manufacturers continued to raise production and employment in February, building on the solid foundation ...

Last week came and went. As near as we could tell, nothing was settled. The trends in motion stayed in motion… No end in sight. On Friday, Americans were still convinced that they were never going broke. The Europeans were still squabbling about how they were going to keep from going broke And the Japanese were telling each other that going broke wouldn’t be so bad. For the United States of America, the road to hell has never been so smooth. The country has been borrowing its way to ruin for many years. But now, the skids are greased. The wheels are oiled. Strap on your seat belt. Whee! Lenders practically insist that the US government take their money. Reuters reports: The US government may ask investors to pay for the privilege and safety of holding short-term debt issued by its ...

Fundamental News: Today’s highlights: GDP (QoQ) (EUR, 09:00 GMT) Trade Balance (GB, 09:30 GMT) U.S. wholesale inventories came out at a seasonally adjusted level of $468.9 billion, up 0.1 percent from revised October levels, according to figures released Tuesday by the Commerce Department. Most economists had predicted a larger increase in inventories of roughly 0.5 percent. In addition, Consumer confidence in the U.S. rose more-than-expected in January, improving for the fifth consecutive month, industry data showed on Tuesday. In a report, Investor's Business Daily and TechnoMetrica Market Intelligence said their IBD/TIPP Economic Optimism Index rose by 4.7 points to 47.5 in January from December’s reading of 42.8. Japan's leading index, that indicates the direction of the ...

(IFR) - When we first walked in this morning, with Dow futures up over 100, we thought the window for corporate issuance might be open despite continued massive Greece uncertainty and the fact that issuers typically avoid FOMC statement day. Since then, bad PMI data out of Europe and news that the EFSF 10yr issue is going to be postponed until after the G20 meeting, has helped the market re-focus on the negative. Risk is flat, which is a lot better than yesterday, but does still does not make the most ideal backdrop for new issues. MARKETS - PMI AND EFSF REVERSE CORRECTION After the bloodbath in credit and peripheral markets yesterday that caused the second biggest rise ever in the iTraxx Main index -- the biggest rise of 25bp came just prior to the first Greek bailout in May last year -- ...

Last time we looked, yesterday, stocks were falling. We’re on a plane bound for Madrid this morning. So, we’re just going to forget the markets and move directly to the economy that supports them. Both The International Herald Tribune and The Financial Times signal that the American economy has hit a bad patch. Both refer to consumer confidence as a cause of the problem. Consumers aren’t willing to borrow or spend…say the papers…because they lack confidence. What they really lack, of course, is money. They don’t have enough money to continue spending at the bubble era rate…and they have little hope of getting any. “Gloom holds back the US economy,” says the FT. The Conference Board does an index of consumer sentiment. It’s at its lowest point in 40 years. And no wonder. More Americans ...

“Adjusting for slippage.” That’s how Greek Finance Minister, Evangelos Venizelos, characterized his nation’s downwardly revised budget deficit forecast. The deficit that was supposed to total a hefty 7.6% of GDP for the 2011-12 fiscal year will now total an even heftier 8.5%, at least until the next adjustment for slippage. To be fair, the Greek government is not alone in “adjusting for slippage.” Many governments’ deficits around the world have been adjusting upwards because economic growth has been adjusting downwards. Not surprisingly, stock markets around the world have been slipping on the adjustments. Numerous factors are to blame for bringing global growth to its knees. But the sovereign debt crisis in Europe is certainly high on the list. This unfolding crisis does not merely ...

www.sunbirdfx.com The Financial markets are backed to to the extreme hysteria that they had just two months ago. The past week was the worst in Wall Street since 2008 and it looks like that the economic situation of many countries is even worse than it was on the subprime crisis. The world has accepted the fact the bankrupt of Greece is inevitable and analysts are trying to estimate how the "day-after" will be. The S&P 500 was closed on Friday near the support of the round number 1100 points, but it looks like that nothing can prevent it from breaking this support down. When it breaks, many automatic orders will be triggered and it might fall sharply to the next support at 1000 points, which is a number with a psychological meaning to the markets. Investors will wait for Bernanke's ...