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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 19/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
France and Spain plan to assemble EUR 13.5 billion (USD 17.6 billion) in bill auction today as Spanish PM Rajoy struggles to reduce budget deficit and presidential elections in the France drive yields up. France is issuing 2017 bills and 2018 inflation linked notes, a maximum target of EUR 11 billion while Spain is planning to raise EUR 2.5 billion in 2-year and 10-year bonds.
USD
The IMF announced that it has secured 320 billion US Dollars in drive for increasing the fund's lending capacity. Switzerland and Poland have already contributed to the fund expansion. The IMF hopes to raise about 400 billion US Dollars in commitments from countries around the world. The move followed surging borrowing costs of Italy and Spain that escalated concerns over the Euro ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 19/04/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
Initial Jobless Claims (U.S. 12:30 GMT)
Existing Home Sales (U.S. 14:00 GMT)
BoC Gov Carney Speaks (CAD, 11:10 GMT)
Spanish 10-Year Obligation Auction (Spain, 08:30 GMT)
In the week ending at April 13, crude oil stocks in the US rose by 3.856M, almost the triple of general consensus of 1.363M. The week before, oil stocks had grown by 2.791M. Moreover, US mortgage applications increased by 6.9% in the week ending at April 13, after dropping by -2.4% in the previous week. According to an article published by Bloomberg, Sales of previously owned U.S. homes probably increased in March as a drop in mortgage rates propelled demand to its strongest quarter in almost two years. Purchases climbed 0.7 percent to a 4.62 million annual rate from ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 19/04/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
The Riksbank maintained its interest rate and hence it surprised quite a few investors who had expected some easing. Our macroeconomists expect that Sweden has seen the lows for the interest rate in this interest-rate cycle. Jyske Bank expects that the Riksbank will initiate a rising interest-rate cycle as of the H2 2013. After the interest-rate announcement, EURSEK fell by four figures and, furthermore, it put NOKSEK under pressure; this latter cross rate was the one that saw the strongest reaction (fell by about 1%). We expect that from now on NOKSEK will continue the uptrend after this brief correction phase.
Surprisingly, the minutes from the Bank of England showed a change in the distribution of the votes of the central bank members. The ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 19/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis is far from over still and I think Spain will be worse before it gets better"
- Henrik Drusebjerg, a senior equity strategist at Nordea Bank AB
The seasonally adjusted current account of the euro zone swung a deficit of €1.3 billion in February from a surplus of €3.7 billion in January, said the European Central Bank on Wednesday.
USD
"We got used to companies beating estimates by a pretty good margin"
- Burt White, chief investment officer at LPL Financial Corp.
U.S. stocks fell after Intel Corp. and International Business Machines Corp. disappointed market participants with their quarterly results.
GBP
"… the monetary policy committee is likely to remain on hold on the stock of asset purchases at its May meeting"
- Mauro Giorgio Marrano, an ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 18/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index fell on Wednesday after Spain reported its proportion of non-performing loans versus total lending rallied to 7.91% January, the highest figure since 1994 raising doubts about nation's ability prevent debt turmoil.
USD
The IMF expects the overall economic growth to accelerate this year as the Euro Zone started to show signs of recovery after severe debt crisis. Moreover, US economic performance also improved. The IMF predicted the global economy to grow by 3.5% in 2012 as compared to the previous expectation for a 3.3% expansion.
GBP
Despite unexpected drop in nation's unemployment, Brtish FTSE 100 index traded modestly lower on Wednesday weighed down by banking stocks as Adam Posen, policy maker at the Bank of England ended his support for ...
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Crude Oil Gains Risk Derailing Global Recovery, Eyes on Inventory Data for Signs of Decline
Oil prices are fundamentally determined by the level of inventories according to the supply/demand factor like any other good and service, but as the year progresses, oil price seem to be further contaminated with fears about slowing global growth - possibly crimping demand for crude.
As a matter of fact, the Chinese economy cooled in the first quarter with a drag from external demand, the euro zone economy is struggling to rebound from recession and increasing debt woes, while the world's largest economy is seemingly getting a grip amid signs of recovery.
Household spending in the United States continued to show moderate improvement in the face of rising fuel prices; however the Federal Reserve last week signaled the long-term outlook of the biggest part of the economy may be smudged by ...
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Euro Fails To Profit From Risk Rally
Sunrise Market Commentary
Fixed Income: Core bonds off resistance levels
A technically inspired correction was supported by positive headlines after the Spanish bill auction (although far less important than tomorrows bond auctions) and strong ZEW data. The Spanish 10-yr yield dropped back below the psychological 6% mark but the threat is far from over.
Currencies: euro fails to profit from risk rally
On Tuesday, sentiment on global market changed for the better and intra-EMU spreads narrowed. However, EUR/GBP and EUR/USD failed to profit. This suggests that underlying euro weakness persists. Key support levels are still within striking distance. This is especially the case for EUR/GBP. Watch out for the Minutes of the April BoE meeting.
The Sunrise Headlines
US ...
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Brent stable at $118 as euro zone concerns ease
(Reuters) - Brent crude futures held steady above $118 on Wednesday as concerns on the euro zone crisis eased after a successful Spanish debt auction and a better growth forecast from the International Monetary Fund.
The IMF offered a cautiously optimistic view on global growth, which it said is slowly improving as the U.S. recovery gains traction and dangers from Europe recede.
While the euro zone will suffer a mild recession, the IMF said it would be less severe than feared after moves to calm markets at the turn of the year.
Brent June crude slipped one cent to $118.77 a barrel by 2:34 a.m. EDT, after settling higher at $118.78 in the previous session.
U.S. May crude gained 25 cents to $104.45, after settling at its highest close since April 2. The May contract expires on Friday.
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Analysis: Spluttering economies to curtail earnings horizon
(Reuters) - Exuberant global markets have taken a reality check this month on chronic U.S., Chinese and European growth concerns, and investors should hold companies' relatively rosy profit outlooks up for scrutiny too.
"Cheap" valuations based on historical price/earnings ratios have kept many investors bullish on world equities over the past three years despite what now appears to be routine economic disappointment and seemingly shorter business and profit cycles.
But there is growing anxiety that temporary sentiment and stock price boosts related to central bank money printing and emergency lending bear little relation to the long-term profit outlook, among non-financial firms at least.
Even though 12-month forward price/earnings ratios for world equity look good value, periodic pops ...
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