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Improving European DebtTitle:
EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
Title:
European Market Update : 23/05/2012
Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works
Economic Data
(GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior
(NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior
(SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e
(EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior
(IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996))
(ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e
(TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior
(UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e
(UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line : 19/05/2012
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- Global economic concerns ratcheted up this week. Widespread discussion of a Greek exit continued, Spanish banks faced rating downgrades and periphery sovereign debt yields moved higher.
- Financial markets have responded to these global worries with increased risk aversion. The S&P is poised to end the week 3% lower, and 10-year treasuries are yielding just 1.7%.
- U.S. economic data has proved somewhat more encouraging, but growth is still struggling to breakout beyond a moderate pace. This has kept the possibility of additional monetary stimulus alive even if the threshold remains quite high.
Canada
- Recent economic indicators are showing a resurgence of strength in the Canadian economy. Strong ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/15/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Investors battered European stocks, dumped the bonds of Spain and Italy, and bid the euro down against the dollar Monday after the collapse of weekend coalition talks in Greece edged that country closer to an exit from the euro zone.
USD
Retail sales in the U.S. rose in April at the slowest pace of the year, showing unseasonably mild weather and pre-Easter shopping may have pulled consumers to stores the prior month.
GBP
Governor Mervyn King looks set to leave the door open to more support for the struggling economy when he presents the Bank of England's new economic outlook on Wednesday, which is likely to show a tricky mix of lower growth and higher inflation ahead.
CHF
Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday on concern Greece will exit the Eurozone.
...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 15/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Industrial producion is a imely reminder that firstquarter GDP will likely show a contracion."
- Marin van Vliet, an economist at ING
Industrial producion in the Eurozone contracted unexpectedly in March, Eurostat data showed on Monday. Producion fell 0.3 per cent from February, when it rose 0.8 per cent.
USD
"The fear factor is definitely higher."
- Madelynn Matlock, a fund manager at Hunington Asset Advisor
U.S. stocks retreated on Monday on a poliical impasse in Greece.
GBP
"I can’t see even after the next Greek election a government appearing that will be able to do anything else than perhaps manage the Greek exit."
- Simon Sole, chief execuive officer of Exclusive Analysis Ltd.
U.K. stocks tumbled on Monday. The benchmark FTSE 100 Index fell 1.97%, or ...
Title:
Loonie Looks Stronger, Employment Data May Weaken Currency
The Canadian dollar gained today as Forex traders showed risk appetite on signs that the situation in Greece is improving and some positive data from the United States. The gains of the currency were limited as tomorrow’s employment data is expected to be rather poor.
European politicians confirmed that Greece is receiving a next round of bailout. There are speculations that the most-indebted European country made progress in forming a new government. US federal budged had its first surplus since 2008. Most news was good today and that translated into demand for riskier assets. Both the Standard & Poor’s 500 Index and MSCI World Index of stocks were up 0.5 percent today.
Canada’s currency profited from the general positive sentiment on the FX market, but is weighed down by poor ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 10/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- ECB Monthly Report (EUR, 09:00 GMT)
- Italian Industrial Production (MoM) (ITA, 09:00 GMT)
- Trade Balance +Manufacturing Production (MoM)+ Industrial Production (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Interest Rate Decision (GB, 12:00 GMT)
- Initial Jobless Claims + Trade Balance (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- Trade Balance (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
- Fed Chairman Bernanke Speaks (U.S, 14:30 GMT)
Wholesale inventories in the U.S. rose by 0.3% (less than expected) in the month of March, according to a report released by the Commerce Department on Wednesday. Prices for single-family homes climbed in half of U.S. cities in the first quarter as real estate markets stabilized, the National Association of Realtors said in a report yesterday.
According to Bloomberg ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/09/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks dropped for a second day, to the lowest level in almost four months, as investors awaited a resolution to the political impasse in Greece and as Spanish credit risk surged. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index (SXXP) lost 1.1 percent to 247.75 at 2:15 p.m. in London, the lowest since Jan. 13, as the euro weakened for an eighth day. The Stoxx 600 has tumbled 9 percent from this year’s high on March 16, trimming this year’s advance to 1.3 percent.
USD
U.S. stock futures retreated, indicating the Dow Jones Industrial Average will drop for a sixth straight day, as Greece’s political impasse intensified concern about a worsening of the European sovereign-debt crisis.
GBP
U.K. retail sales fell the most in more than a year last month as poor weather ...
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