ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
Improving Euro ZoneTitle:
Wall Street posts worst week of 2012 as job growth slows
(Reuters) - Wall Street ended its worst week this year with a sharp selloff on Friday after a slowdown in job creation in the world's top economy raised the biggest question mark yet about the prospects for U.S. growth.
Employers reduced hiring for the third straight month, adding 115,000 workers in April, well below forecasts of 170,000. Traders' expectations had fallen during the week, but the softer jobs number missed even more pessimistic forecasts.
Energy shares were the worst performers, with the S&P energy index .GSPE down 2.2 percent on fears a worsening economy would sap demand. U.S. crude oil fell 4 percent, dropping below $100 a barrel for the first time since February.
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
Title:
Asia Session: Is There Going To Be Another Rate Cut By The RBA In June?
As expected the RBA cut its growth and inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 in its quarterly statement on monetary policy, noting that earlier predictions were overly optimistic. Yet, the report was not as dovish as the market was expecting, thus the aussie jumped almost 30 pips immediately following its release.
Domestically, the report towed a familiar line in terms of a two speed economy with the mining sector on one side and the rest of the economy on the other. The bank noted that the assumed high level of AUD and a weak short-term outlook for building construction are expected to weigh on non-mining sectors of the economy. Australia's labour market is a prime example of this, with softness in most parts of the economy being somewhat offset by increases in employment in the mining ...
Title:
Weekly Focus: Europe Trailing the US and China
Market Movers ahead
- Focus at the beginning of next week is likely to centre on the outcome of this weekend's elections in Greece and France.
- We expect growth in Chinese industrial production to have accelerated in March, suggesting economic growth is now close to trend.
- Bad weather has kept vegetable prices elevated in China. Thus we only expect a marginal decline in Chinese CPI inflation for April to 3.5% y/y next week.
- We expect Norges Bank to keep the policy rate unchanged at 1.50% at its rate setting meeting on Thursday.
- Swedish industrial production is expected to have rebounded in March, while inflationary pressure will probably have decreased in April.
Global Update
- The US ISM manufacturing index surprised on the upside, rising to 54.8 in April from ...
Title:
Asia Session: NZD Is Unexpectedly Hit Hard
The kiwi took a hammering on the back of a huge surge in the NZ unemployment rate, with the rate blowing most estimates out of the water with the 6.7% print from a revised 6.4 %. Also, whist employment growth increased slightly more than expected at 0.4% q/q (exp. 0.3%) it is still a fairly soft showing, thus it highlights the problems facing the NZ labour market as the country attempts to regain its footing after the financial crisis and the earthquakes around Christchurch.
There was also a significant jump in the participation rate as workers flooded back into the labour force, both those looking for work and people currently working. Overall, we expect conditions in the labour market will improve during 2012 as a result of reconstruction efforts and a generally improving economic ...
Title:
Global shares, euro slip as data casts doubt on recovery
(Reuters) - Asian shares slipped on Thursday and the euro languished near a 2-week low after disappointing economic data from both sides of the Atlantic rekindled concerns about the strength of global growth.
Commodities and the Australian dollar - all sensitive to growth expectations - also struggled as the data put investors on the defensive and limited appetite for riskier assets.
The euro had fallen nearly 1 percent to $1.3122 on Wednesday, and European stocks also dropped, after a survey showed euro zone factories sank further into decline last month, with the downturn hitting Italy and Spain hard and appearing to take root among core members France and Germany. .EU
With recently-downgraded Spain looking to raise funds in the bond market on Thursday, the European Central Bank will ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 02/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The likelihood of inflation falling below 2 percent in the short run remains low, putting the ECB in a difficult situation."
- Peter Vanden Houte, an economist at ING
Inflation in the euro zone rose by more than expected in April, mounting pressure on the European Central Bank to take action against price pressures.
USD
"Manufacturing is still in pretty good shape."
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Manufacturing in the U.S. expanded in April at the fastest pace in 10 months, showed Institute for Supply Management data on Tuesday.
GBP
"The good news is that manufacturing clocked up a fifth straight rise, whilst cost pressures have eased a little and some firms are still recruiting."
- Lee Hopley, chief economist at EEF
U.K. ...
Title:
European Market Update : 01/05/2012
UK PMI Manufacturing comes in below expectations but holds above the 50 level
Economic Data
(AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts Cash Target by 50bps to 3.75%; more than expected
(PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e
(JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 92.0% v 78.2% prior
(IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$13.9B v -$13.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.7% v + 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.3% v 20.7% prior
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.5 prior
(AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 99.5 v 99.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -4.2% v 2.1% prior
(DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.5 v 51.5e (lowest since Dec 2011)
(DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 61.8 v 53.0 prior (12-month ...
Title:
Copper shaken from 1-month high as dollar rises
(Reuters) - Copper prices fell back from a near one-month high in European trading on Monday, with thin volumes sharpening moves, as investors swerved from supply fundamentals to focus on a stronger dollar.
Losses were limited, however, as falling stockpiles pointed to improved demand outside China, with the top consumer poised to re-export some metal to boost availability in the global market.
London Metal Exchange three-month copper was last quoted at $8,370 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) by 0952 GMT, down 0.5 percent on the day after rising to $8,496.75, its highest since April 4.
The dollar rose 0.2 percent against a basket of currencies .DXY, with signs of increasing euro zone economic gloom and hostility toward austerity keeping the single currency down and making dollar-priced ...
|