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If The Central BankTitle:
EURCHF Move Provides Temporary Excitement
Forex News and Events:
Risk appetite has recovery marginally in the Asian session as the lack of Europe-negative headlines allowed risk seekers to pick up bargains. EURUSD was able to rally off the 1.2519 lows trading up to 1.2579. One of the more tangible drivers of today’s renewed positive sentiment has been the optimistic tone out of the Iran nuclear talks. A spokesman for EU foreign policy chief Catherine Ashton, stated "there is a positive atmosphere.” Oil went bid in the European session as WTI traded swiftly to $91.31. Yesterday’s move of the day was in the EURCHF where speculation on exactly what happened is still dominating conversation. After a month of inactivity around the 1.2010 level (vols compressed to nothing), EURCHF jumped suddenly over 60 pips during the European ...
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European Market Update : 25/05/2012
Germany said to be working on growth plan for euro zone
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €3.8B borrowed in overnight loan facility vs. €3.8B prior; €760.9B parked in deposit facility v €765.9B prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 21st (RUB): 7.00T v 6.93T prior
(SG) Singapore Apr Industrial Production M/M: -3.5% v +06%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +4.1% prior
(DE) Germany Jun GfK Consumer Confidence: 5.7 v 5.6e
(FR) France May Consumer Confidence: 90 v 88e
(ES) Spain Apr Producer Prices M/M: -0.8% v 0.0%e; Y/Y: 3.1% v 2.7%e
(AT) Austria Mar Industrial Production M/M: +1.6% v -1.4% prior; Y/Y: +0.8% v -0.9% prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 Non-Farm payrolls: 4.049M v 4.044M prior
(DE) Germany May CPI Saxony M/M: -0.2%% v +0.1% prior; Y/Y: 1.9% v 2.0% prior
(IT) Italy Mar Retail Sales M/M: -0.2% V -0.2%e; Y/ ...
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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one – the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention – lower interest rates – more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. – and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds."
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
European manufacturing and services industries contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services sectors declined to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, said the Markit Economics on Thursday.
USD
"It looks more and more like businesses are hesitating to invest in the face of worsening uncertainties in the and global economy."
- Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 19 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
" ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 25/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights
- GfK German Consumer Climate (GER, 07:00 GMT)
- French Consumer Confidence (FRA, 07:45 GMT)
- Spanish PPI (YoY) (SPAIN, 08:00 GMT)
- Employment Level (SUI, 08:15 GMT)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S., 14:55 GMT)
According to the Labor Department, new unemployment claims in the U.S came in at a seasonally adjusted level of 370,000, a slight decline from the previous week's revised level of 372,000. While, U.S durable goods orders edged up by 0.2 percent in April after tumbling by 3.7 percent in March, the Commerce Department said in a report on Thursday.
According to Bloomberg, China’s biggest banks may fall short of loan targets for the first time in at least seven years as an economic slowdown crimps demand for credit, three ...
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Asian stocks drop on worries over China’s growth and the deepening debt crisis in Europe
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7% at 12:47 in Tokyo as Asian stocks are heading towards the fourth week of losses on worries China’s economy is slowing and business conditions are deteriorating while Europe’s debt crisis is deepening.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index fell 1.2% this week, heading for its longest weekly losing streak since November, mainly on fears from the impact of Greece`s possible exit from the eurozone and China’s slowing economy since it threatens Asian trade.
One day after China reported lackluster data from the manufacturing sector, three bank officials with knowledge of the matter said that China’s largest banks may miss their lending targets for the first time in seven years.
As Europe’s debt crisis curbs exports, manufacturing shrinks and demand on new homes ...
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Germany May Have No Choice But To Play Ball
Investors in Asia were not as confident as those in the US and Europe, with most equity markets in Asia trading in negative territory or flat. A lot of investors are likely choosing to stay on the sidelines with so much of their focus on the uncertainty in Europe.
Overnight, Italy’s Monti attempted to reassure the market by stating Eurobonds gained a lot of support at Wednesday’s EU summit, with the obvious exception of Germany.
Monti appears to be suggesting Germany will give in to other EU leaders. Looking at Germany’s alternatives we are inclined to agree with this assumption. The balance of power may be shifting, and Germany may have no other option than to bow to pressure from its fellow EU nations, especially when faced with the prospect of Greece leaving the Eurozone which puts ...
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Japan’s inflation target remains distant as the CPI rises 0.4%
Japan’s consumer price index rose in April by 0.4%, keeping the 1% inflation target sent by the central bank distant. BoJ expects inflation to rise 0.7% for the year starting in April 2013 while the 1% target may only be achieved in two years.
The actual reading matched analysts’ expectations by 0.4% which came lower than the previous reading of 0.5%. Meanwhile the index that excludes fresh food rose 0.2% in April, matching the previous, while the index that excludes food and energy its fell to -0.3% from -0.5% previous.
The rise in energy prices may help BoJ to control inflation, as the country became nuclear free for the first time in more than four decades after nuclear plants were shutdown after last year’s earthquake.
Moreover, this week Bank of Japan decided to keep the interest ...
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Euro wallows at 2-year lows as EU worries rattle markets
(Reuters) - The euro wallowed at two-year lows against the dollar on Friday and was poised to end the week two percent weaker, weighed down by weak German manufacturing data and worries about a messy Greek exit from the euro zone.
The risk-sensitive Australian dollar dipped 0.2 percent to $0.9741, coming close to the six-month low of $0.9690 hit on Wednesday as a sell-off in emerging market currencies picked up steam.
Rattled by worries over lack of growth in the euro area, the fragile situation of the region's banking system and a potential messy Greek exit from the single currency bloc, the euro is poised to chalk up its biggest weekly loss since the first week of April.
Macro funds and real money investors have ramped up selling of the currency, which is now down more than 5 percent ...
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