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If A PullbackTitle:
Spanish Auction a Minor Success
Forex News and Events:
Chatter of a possible Moody's downgrade of France soveriegn rating tonight has pushed EURUSD and risk appitite lower. Yesterday, Thomas Jordon was named president of the SNB and was quick to reiterate his unwavering support of the EURCHF 1.2000 “floor”. EURCHF rallied marginally but has since fallen back. We wouldn’t expected much more upside bounce in EURCHF (which was more a function of rumors swirling and the SNB asking about forward prices then it was about the new board) and we dont anticpate a higher repeg. First of all, Jordon becoming SNB president was pretty much a “sure thing” and well priced in. Secondly, while there is greater certainty in policy continuation, it doesn’t change the macro fundamentals at play, mean that storm clouds are again forming ...
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 04/19/2012
EUR – USD
Market should hold major support at 1.3061 before rising towards 1.3157 or even 1.3191 limit.
USD – CHF
Resistances lie around 0.9185 and 0.9198. It should test lower towards 0.9132 zone. A clear break of 0.9123 would be bearish.
GBP – USD
Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.6062 or 1.6078 if support around 1.5987 hold. After which a pullback to 1.5987 - 1.5959 zone is possible.
USD – JPY
One move lower to 80.87 or 80.49 is anticipated while below 81.41 - 81.60 area. Stop loss above 81.94 zone.
USD – CAD
It should try higher up to 0.9918 - 0.9930. Entry point 0.9906 or 0.9897. After this rise, a correction is expected.
NZD – USD
Market should not go lower than 0.8153 - 0.8129. After this move down it ...
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April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China
April Fears Ahead of Fed, Spain & China
Forced Liquidation or Improved Sentiment?
Recent intermittent bounces in EURUSD in the face of surging Eurozone spreads are said to be reflecting possible liquidation by European banks unloading US assets to relieve an ensuing shortage of US dollars. Other explanations were attributed to the IMF buying Irish and Portuguese bailout tranches during the late European trading hours, taking advantage of cheaper levels (lowest since Feb 15). But as long as traders find no confidence in battling the coordinated efforts of asset-buying central banks and the Fed produces no new dissenters to the ultra low rates til 2014 mantra, risk currencies may be assured to find support.
Spanish government bonds are now the latest victim of bond traders typical one- ...
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Analysis: Spluttering economies to curtail earnings horizon
(Reuters) - Exuberant global markets have taken a reality check this month on chronic U.S., Chinese and European growth concerns, and investors should hold companies' relatively rosy profit outlooks up for scrutiny too.
"Cheap" valuations based on historical price/earnings ratios have kept many investors bullish on world equities over the past three years despite what now appears to be routine economic disappointment and seemingly shorter business and profit cycles.
But there is growing anxiety that temporary sentiment and stock price boosts related to central bank money printing and emergency lending bear little relation to the long-term profit outlook, among non-financial firms at least.
Even though 12-month forward price/earnings ratios for world equity look good value, periodic pops ...
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Housing Starts Fall Well Below Estimates in March
Housing Starts Fall Well Below Estimates in March
Housing starts posted another disappointing pullback in March, falling 5.8 percent. Much of the decline was in the volatile multifamily component, which dropped 16.9 percent. Weather may also still have had an effect.
Two Disappointing Monthly Reports - Transitory or Trend?
The key spring selling season got off to a disappointing start in March, with housing starts dropping 5.8 percent on the month. The decline in starts was largely concentrated in the volatile multifamily component. Multifamily starts fell 16.9 percent on the month, but the decline is likely due to payback. That said, multifamily starts are up 34.6 percent on a year-ago basis, which is more indicative of the solid underlying trend.
With two consecutive monthly declines, ...
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Dollar off highs after data
The U.S. dollar was under pressure after U.S. Data, retail sales headline showed slight slowdown to 0.8% from the revised down 1.0% in February however gained more than market expectations of 0.3%, while the core reading which excludes automobiles sales expanded at the same rate at 0.8% above market consensus of 0.6% and excluding gas and auto it showed a strong 0.7% gain. On the manufacturing front; the empire state manufacturing index slumped to 6.6 from 20.2 in February way below expectations; as market were pointing towards 18.1, meanwhile TIC long-term flows were sharply down printing a 10.1 in February billion from 102.4 billion January however the total TIC flows were still a strong 107.7 billion from a revised 3.1 billion.
Although retails sales figure came slightly better than ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 13/04/2012
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
A Rough Start To April
Another week of softer U.S. economic data weighed on market sentiment this week. More hints of slower economic growth are appearing in the data, consistent with our forecast that U.S. GDP growth slows to a 2.8 percent annualized pace in the first quarter and continues slowing to a sub 2 percent annualized pace in the second.
Initial jobless claims jumped by 13,000 in the first week of April. February imports plunged 2.7 percent, small business confidence fell in March for the first time in seven months and core inflation is on the rise.
A Rough Start to April
United States economic data releases so far this month have not been kind to the bulls on Wall Street. The poor March payroll report rattled some ...
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RTFX Daily Forex Market comments : 04/11/2012
EUR – USD
Prefer a fall to 1.3068 or 1.3043. Then a correction to 1.3113 is anticipated. A clear break of 1.3004 is again bearish.
USD – CHF
Current upmove should continue up to 0.9245. Supports at 0.9181 and 0.9166. Stop Loss below 0.9151 limit.
GBP – USD
Market should pop up towards 1.5897 or 1.5926 this bullish scenario would be damaged if 1.5836 - 1.5804 zone is broken, a severe break down could then occur.
USD – JPY
There is bearish potential for a fall to 80.66 - 80.26 while 81.06 - 81.27 resist. After this fall a recovery up to 81.27 or 81.48 is expected.
USD – CAD
Uptrend is still intact in a triangle configuration. It should continue to rally to 1.0046 or 1.0076 if support around 1.0014 hold. After which a pullback to 1.0014 - 0.9998 zone is possible.
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Dow, S&P fall for fifth day, but Alcoa up late
The selloff in U.S. stocks accelerated on Tuesday, as the Dow and S&P 500 dropped for a fifth day, with the pullback coming on the cusp of earnings season.
The slide marked the S&P 500's worst day since December 8. The declines were the largest losses this year in terms of both points and percentage drops for each of the three major U.S. stock indexes.
All S&P 500 sectors ended solidly lower, with industrial and materials names suffering the biggest drops. About 80 percent of shares listed on the New York Stock Exchange and the Nasdaq Stock Market ended lower.
The major U.S. stock indexes each fell more than 1.5 percent, pushing the S&P 500 below its 50-day moving average of 1,372.30, an area viewed as a significant support level that will make or break the current uptrend.
"Dropping ...
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