Heading Towards Parity

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing" - Ben Kwong, KGI Asia European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations. USD "If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move" - Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc. Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy. GBP "We must work together to give ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played" - Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March. USD "What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar" - Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...

The euro slipped to a near four-month low on Monday as political turmoil in Greece highlighted the risk it might exit the euro zone, while worries about slowing Chinese and global growth drove down higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven currencies, including the dollar and the Japanese yen, rose as coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday, increasing the chance of another election. Euro-zone industrial production unexpectedly fell in March, adding to signs the bloc is heading into recession, further fuelling bearish sentiment, while Spain's short-term debt costs rose at auction and its 10-year yields soared. "Beyond the ongoing turmoil in the European financial system, policymakers in Greece are certainly running out of time as they struggle to form a coalition," said David ...

The euro fell to a near four-month low on Monday as political turmoil gripped Greece, highlighting the risk the country may exit the euro zone, while worries about slowing Chinese and global growth drove down higher-yielding currencies. Safe-haven currencies including the dollar and the Japanese yen rose as coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday, increasing the chance of another election. Euro zone industrial production unexpectedly fell in March, adding to signs the bloc is heading into recession and further fuelling bearish sentiment, while Spain's short-term debt costs rose at auction and its 10-year yields soared. The common currency fell to $1.2861 on trading platform EBS, its lowest level since January 23. It has lost 2.7 percent so far this month after losing 0.8 ...

This is the fifth day without a firm government in place for Greece; if a coalition is not found soon then we could be heading back to the polls, which open up the possibility of a prolonged period of Greek political instability. There was some hope this morning of the Conservatives forming a coalition with the Socialists and other moderate pro-bailout parties that would have a mandate to govern until 2014. This helped to lift the euro from its daily lows; however for a sustained rally in risk we need to get a firm commitment that a 'moderate' pro-European government will take the reins of power in Athens. Unless that happens then the markets are likely to remain jittery. Mixed signals The markets are particularly cloudy today. Some bullish reversal patterns that formed yesterday were ...

Risk assets continue to get sold today and the back-drop remains fragile. The leader of the radical left Syrizia party in Greece has two days to try to form a government, thus expect anti-austerity/ anti bailout rhetoric to continue to come out of Athens today. It appears that Tsipars – the head of Syrizia - wants to hold new elections to try and win the premiership. This only extends the uncertainty about Greece remaining in the Eurozone, which spooked risk assets yesterday. Spanish banks That isn't the only thing that investors need to contend with. The Spanish bond market is pricing in the risk of the government needing to bail out its banking sector, hence why its bond yields are flying higher this morning. The 10-year yield has risen nearly 25 basis points so far today and is back ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR Spain faced increasing borrowing costs during successful sale of bonds with two and ten-year maturity. The country's Treasury sold 1,116 billion Euros of two-year bonds at yield of 3.463% and 1,425 billion Euros in ten-year bonds with yield of 5.743%. Demand for Spain's debt was strong as bids surpassed demand 3.3 times. USD The American session also gained from the higher-than-estimated German Ifo business climate reading released today. The increase in stocks was also accompanied by a gain in commodity prices and a decline of treasury yields. GBP British FTSE 100 index traded modestly higher on Friday as data showed UK retail sales rallied in March, reaching 1.8% growth instead of predicted 0.4% gain. IMI Plc jumped 1.8% after engineering group reported an ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The world needs a strong leadership role from Germany today, and it is Germany’s core interest to provide such a role" - Christine Lagarde, IMF managing director International Monetary Fund managing director Christine Lagarde warned on Monday that the global economy could slide into a “1930s moment” if Europe does not solve its fiscal problems, and said Europe’s largest economy must contribute more money to avert financial collapse. USD "It’s been a brisk run in risk assets this year" - Stephen Wood, chief market strategist at Russell Investments U.S. stocks closed mixed on Monday as investors debated whether a three-week rally in equities was warranted. GBP "We believe the risks to current 2012 profit forecasts are more evenly balanced than implied by ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR Germany and France are looking for the ways to relax the worldwide banks' capital rules to limit negative impact on the real economy. Finance ministers of France and Germany are going to call for special treatment for financial institutions that are involved in insurance business. Moreover, ministers will urge essential clauses of the Basel III guidelines on the basic capital requirements. Banks all over the world will be obliged to comply with Basel III requirements on disclosing the quality and size of capital buffers starting from 2013. USD Mixed sentiment was experienced by investors earlier today on speculation of further QE carried out by the Fed. S. Hoffman, PNC economist, claimed that QE3 is unnecessary, and might have a negative effect on the ...