Going And Testing All Time

Fundamental Analysis EUR "The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds." - Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight European manufacturing and services industries contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services sectors declined to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, said the Markit Economics on Thursday. USD "It looks more and more like businesses are hesitating to invest in the face of worsening uncertainties in the and global economy." - Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 19 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday. GBP " ...

MORNING BRIEFING: Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows What’s new: Asia: Japanese CPI in line with expectations. Risk mixed overnight. EUR/JPY consolidates below 100. United States: Soft core durables send GDP forecasts down. USD gaining against most peers Europe: Decent indices, but Euro selling off. Still focus on Greece and the lack of progress. Rates in Asia and Indices: EUR/USD 1.2519 1.2561 0.21 % USD/CHF 0.9567 0.9606 0.16 % GBP/USD 1.5648 1.5676 -0.00 % USD/JPY 79.54 79.82 -0.06 % EUR/CHF 1.2012 1.20375 -0.03 % EUR/JPY 99.73 100.06 -0.25 % Dow Jones 12419.63 12539.59 0.26 % Nasdaq 2512.35 2554.2 ...

(Reuters) - The euro slumped to its weakest level against the dollar in nearly two years on Wednesday on doubts a meeting of European leaders would calm fears of a disorderly Greek exit from the euro zone. Investors piled money into safe-haven instruments, driving the U.S. dollar index to its strongest since September 2010. The yen, which also tends to perform well during times of stress, hit its highest level since February against the euro. Euro zone officials have told members of the currency area to prepare contingency plans in case Greece quits the bloc, an eventuality which Germany's central bank said would be testing but "manageable," three officials told Reuters. An informal summit of European Union leaders on Wednesday is expected to discuss growth-boosting measures and the ...

Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works Economic Data (GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior (SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e (EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior (IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996)) (ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e (TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior (UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e (UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone and the negative consequences from that are prevailing" - Ben Kwong, KGI Asia European stocks edged lower after Fitch downgraded Greece’s credit rating to ‘CCC’, implying that the country is vulnerable and highly dependent on favourable economic conditions to fulfill its financial obligations. USD "If there were scope to do another twist of some type it would be prudent to consider it, especially in the scenario where things are worse and the Fed feels like it needs to move" - Nathan Sheets, Citigroup Inc. Fed policymakers might potentially launch another round of Operation Twist rather than a direct asset purchases in case of increased risks or further weakening of the US economy. GBP "We must work together to give ...

Central Banks' to the Rescue? The Bank of England stole the headlines this morning as it delivered its second Inflation Report of the year. Its message was fairly grim: the UK won't regain its 2007 level of output until 2018. The biggest threat to the UK economy right now according to the bank is the impasse in the Eurozone (something the BOE can't control). The BOE: "blame the Royal Family and the Eurozone" However, the one thing it can control is QE and interest rates, and it kept the door to more QE firmly open today. It noted that Q1 GDP figures could be revised higher, however a number of "one off" factors like the Queen's Jubilee bank holiday this year could knock 0.5% from GDP. This "holiday" could have a more damaging economic effect than the Royal Wedding, according to the Bank. ...

USD is Preferred Haven USD remains firm ahead of today's FOMC minutes and amid ongoing EU concerns. UK PM Cameron put the situation in the euro area rather succinctly saying that "it either has to make up or face a potential breakup". The dollar index is continuing its ascent towards mid-January highs after breaking a medium term bear channel. Economic data due out shortly incldes April housing starts which are forecast to gain by 4.7% m/m, building permits which are anticipated to fall by -4.5% m/m, and industrial production which is expected to show growth of 0.6%. The minutes from the April 24-25 FOMC meeting will be released at 1400ET and will provide insight into the whether or not the Fed discussed additional measures. EUR is nearing the 2012 lows against the USD as the euro ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Global core bonds profit from euro debt crisis - Concerns about Greece and Spain underpinned the ongoing rally of global core bonds. The German 10-year yield fell below 1.50%. Intra-EMU yield spreads versus Germany widened substantially. Today, the eco calendar is enticing. If no euro debt crisis news acts as a circuit breaker, the eco data may for once drive the price action. - Currencies: Speculation on Grexit continues to hammer the euro. - At the start of the new trading week, the Greek crisis remained the key factor for currency trading. With no visibility on the outcome of the EMU crisis, the easiest way for the euro is south. EUR/USD set a new correction low. EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.8000. This morning, strong German ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Largely uneventful session for core bonds - Core bonds had an insignificant, technical and sentiment-driven session that left bond yields slightly higher in the close. Overnight, negative headline news on JP Morgan and Greece triggered a moderately strong opening of the Bund. Europe will be in the focus today with the publication of the Spanish banking plan and the EU spring forecasts. - Currencies: EUR/GBP testing 80.00 barrier, as BoE stops printing press - On Thursday, sentiment on risk turned slightly less negative, even without progress in the Greek debt/election crisis. Nevertheless, the decline in EUR/USD slowed. EUR/GBP reached a minor low just below 0.8000 as the BoE halted its program of asset purchases. For now, we see no ...