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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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Global Markets Weekahead: Euro zone policy action becoming critical
The now familiar European cycle of crisis followed by political action, temporary respite, then another crisis enters that crucial second stage next week when leaders of the 27-member European Union seek solutions in Brussels.
Investors will also be concerned with how hard the crisis is hitting the euro economy, with flash estimates of business activity due from the latest purchasing managers' surveys, and with the view from Bank of Japan policymakers meeting in Tokyo.
The potential for a Greek euro exit and the deteriorating health of the Spanish banking system have fueled a growing sense among investors that the crisis in the 17-member currency bloc is nearing new heights.
"This whole European situation has been managed via crisis," said Didier Saint-Georges, a member of the ...
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Euro comes off 4-month low but worries remain
The euro rose from a four-month low against the dollar on Friday as investors pared bets against the single currency after a 4 percent drop this month but concerns about Greece and Spain were likely to keep it under pressure.
Technical support also helped, traders said, as the euro approached its January low of $1.2623. A break beneath that would opened the door to a slide toward the 2010 lows around $1.1875.
Despite Friday's gains, investors preferred the relative safety of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen as worries about Europe persisted after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday.
Some traders had earlier said the euro's recent decline could slow, given investors may be wary of holding positions over the weekend when leaders of the G8 major industrial ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible.
USD
As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99.
GBP
Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...
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Euro rallies from 4-month low but crisis remains
The euro rose from a four-month low against the dollar on Friday as investors pared bets against the single currency after a 4 percent drop this month, but concerns about Greece and Spain were likely to keep it under pressure.
Despite Friday's gains, investors preferred the relative safety of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen. They were reluctant to increase risk exposure after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday.
With no U.S. data to drive foreign exchange markets, investors are most likely to consolidate positions ahead of the weekend following days of euro losses.
"The biggest risk today is position squaring into the weekend; however there appears to be increasing evidence that the euro is likely to move lower in the days ahead," said Camilla Sutton, ...
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Euro hovers near 4-month low as crisis brews
The euro lifted off a four-month low against the dollar on Friday, as investors pared bearish bets after earlier falls but concerns about a Greek euro exit and instability in the Spanish banking system were likely to keep it under pressure.
Investors preferred the relative safety of the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen and were reluctant to buy riskier assets after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday.
The euro tumbled to $1.2642, not far from its lowest of the year, before recovering to trade 0.2 percent higher at $1.2715. Traders cited large option expiries at $1.2700 which were likely to cap gains.
Some traders said the euro's recent decline could slow, given investors may be wary of holding positions over the weekend when leaders of the G8 major industrial ...
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Oil hits 2012 low under $107 on euro zone turmoil
Oil prices slipped below $107 a barrel on Friday and hit a 2012 low as investors fought shy of riskier, growth-oriented assets on fears that Greece would leave the euro, and after a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks by Moody's added to the contagion gloom.
Brent crude was down 51 cents to $106.98 a barrel by 1122 GMT after earlier slipping to its lowest level for the year at $106.40. U.S. crude was up 16 cents to $92.72.
"The driving factor is still what is going on in Europe with the downgrades of the Spanish banks and very negative sentiment towards risk investments," said Eugen Weinberg, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. "It's not surprising to see further falls in Brent today."
The euro fell to fresh four-month lows as the dollar strengthened .DXY, putting commodities priced in ...
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Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
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Euro at four month low against dollar as crisis spins
The euro hit a four-month low against the dollar and 3-1/2 month trough versus the yen on Friday as concerns about a chaotic Greek exit from the euro zone and instability in the Spanish banking system fuelled demand for safer currencies.
Investors were reluctant to buy riskier assets after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday. Fellow ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece deeper into junk territory.
The euro tumbled to $1.2642, within sight its 2012 low of $1.2624. It has shed 4.1 percent against the dollar so far in May, while demand for the highly liquid dollar pushed it up 0.3 percent against a basket of currency .DXY on the day to a four-month peak of 81.758.
Against the yen, the euro fell to 100.219 yen, its lowest level since early February.
Many ...
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