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Market Drivers - Currencies : 25/05/2012
Market Drivers - Currencies
Today's Comment
As there are no major items on today's agenda, the markedly weaker-than-expected PMI data from Europe and China (as well as lower-than-expected IFO figures from Germany) published yesterday will undoubtedly show repercussions in Friday's market. Ironically, the equity market and commodity market did not show any considerable negative reactions to the news yesterday. The reason for this is most likely a fairly simple one – the weak economic indicators will increase the likelihood of a central bank intervention – lower interest rates – more QE, fiscal stimuli from China, etc. – and that will be to the liking of risky assets as they have become almost dependent on such measures to maintain the current levels. The poor PMI data signal that the ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 25/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The euro zone is being buffeted by major headwinds."
- Howard Archer, chief European economist at IHS Global Insight
European manufacturing and services industries contracted in May. A composite index based on a survey of purchasing managers in manufacturing and services sectors declined to 45.9 from 46.7 in April, said the Markit Economics on Thursday.
USD
"It looks more and more like businesses are hesitating to invest in the face of worsening uncertainties in the and global economy."
- Pierre Ellis, a senior economist at Decision Economics
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined slightly by 2,000 to a seasonally adjusted 370,000 in the week ended May 19 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
" ...
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Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
MORNING BRIEFING: Negative outlook in EU sends EUR/USD to new 2012 lows
What’s new:
Asia: Japanese CPI in line with expectations. Risk mixed overnight. EUR/JPY consolidates below 100.
United States: Soft core durables send GDP forecasts down. USD gaining against most peers
Europe: Decent indices, but Euro selling off. Still focus on Greece and the lack of progress.
Rates in Asia and Indices:
EUR/USD 1.2519 1.2561 0.21 %
USD/CHF 0.9567 0.9606 0.16 %
GBP/USD 1.5648 1.5676 -0.00 %
USD/JPY 79.54 79.82 -0.06 %
EUR/CHF 1.2012 1.20375 -0.03 %
EUR/JPY 99.73 100.06 -0.25 %
Dow Jones 12419.63 12539.59 0.26 %
Nasdaq 2512.35 2554.2 ...
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Technical analysis of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the XAU/USD (Gold) pair:
The pair XAU/USD made a pullback yesterday on 1580 points and just felt on the support at 1550 points.
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1580 is resistance.
The breakout of 1540 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1500 points.
In case of return above 1580 points, we will wait the breakout of 1600 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the XAU/USD pair of May 24th, 2012
XAU/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD made yesterday a pullback on 0.98 as resistance.
The pair is still moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.9850 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.97 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.96.
In case of return above 0.9850, we will wait the breakout of 0.9950 to advise long positons.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of May 24th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the EUR/CHF pair on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/CHF pair:
The pair EUR/CHF has faked yesterday the start of a strong bullish rally.
The pair is back on the same levels before the intervention of the BNS (above 1.2010).
Indicators are neutral.
We now advise to trade only long positions as far as 1.2010 is support.
The breakout of 1.2030 and 1.2050 will both give a new buy signal.
In case of return below 1.2010, we will wait the breakout of 1.20 to advise short positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/CHF pair of May 24th, 2012
EUR/CHF Analysis
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Technical analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/GBP pair:
The pair EUR/GBP continues to move on the support at 0.80 and also on the second line of its bearish channel (overlaid purple lines).
Indicators are globaly bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8075 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.80 will give a new sell siganl and open the way towards 0.7950.
In case of return above 0.8075, we will wait the breakout of 0.81 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP pair of May 24th, 2012
EUR/GBP Analysis
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Technical analysis of the EUR/JPY pair on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/JPY pair :
The pair EUR/JPY is still moving around 100.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is moving below the lower band of its bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 101 is resistance.
The breakout of 100 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 99.50 and 99.
In case of return above 101, we will wait the breakout of 102 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/JPY pair of May 24th, 2012
EUR/JPY Analysis
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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on May 25th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/USD pair :
The pair EUR/USD made a pullback yesterday on the resistance at 1.26 and is currently moving between this level and the support at 1.25.
The pair is still moving below a paralell of its bearish channel (lows of March 14th).
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.2650 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.25 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.2450.
In case of return above 1.2650, we will then wait the breakout of 1.2750 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair of May 24th, 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
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