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German Trade BalanceTitle:
Australian employment report stronger than expected
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
A much stronger than expected Australian employment report gave AUDUSD 70 pips of upside overnight. 44k new jobs were created against expectations of only 6.5k, and the unemployment rate held steady at 5.2% despite fears it would tick higher. Our analysts team sound a note of caution though – they point out that when averaged across several months jobs growth is still relatively soft and not strong enough to keep the unemployment rate as low as it currently is. The team sticks to its view that the RBA will cut 25 bp at each of its May and June meetings, thanks to what is expected to be a low enough CPI reading for Q1.
Fed Vice-Chair Yellen’s much anticipated speech provided a fairly balanced assessment of where Fed policy is headed. She ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 11/04/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
German 10-Year Bund Auction (GER, 09:30 GMT)
Housing Starts (CAD, 12:15 GMT)
Import Price Index (MoM) (U.S, 12: 30 GMT)
10-Year Note Auction + Beige Book + Federal Budget Balance (U.S, 18:00 GMT)
U.S. wholesale inventories rose by more than expected in the month of February. The level of inventories for wholesalers was at a seasonally adjusted level of $478.9 billion in February, reflecting a 0.9 percent increase from January levels, according to figures released Tuesday by the Department of Commerce.
A leading indicator of economic performance in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area increased for the fourth straight month in February. The composite leading indicator, which is designed to anticipate ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 10/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Spanish banks are likely to need additional funds as economic state of the country has continued to deteriorate, announced Miguel Angel Fernandez Ordonez from bank of Spain. Spanish banks are facing next round of increase in bad loans as country enters the second wave of crisis in the last three years. Experts predict Spain to apply for a new bailout in the nearest future.
USD
US wholesalers outperformed their sale forecasts in February, as they tried to keep up with the growing demand. Wholesale inventories rose 0.9% - slightly higher than the 0.5% forecast. The Sales grew by 1.2%, unchanged from January.
GBP
Bank of England reported that recent monetary policy easing by the ECB is not expected to improve the labour market in the region. The rate of ...
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Traders Watching Spanish Yields Nervously
Forex News and Events:
Today traders will be watching development in Europe as Spanish yields continue to rise and investors remain skeptical that Prime Minister Rajoy can bring the nations deficit under control. Rajoy was quoted as saying “Spain is in an emergency situation.” Yields on Spanish 10 year sovereign debt rose to 5.79%. In addition, there is regional contagion worries as concerns are also spilling over into Italian debt (5yr +17bps today). And despite strong rhetoric, investors have not ruled out Spain joining Greece, Portugal and Ireland in seeking an international bailout. No helping to ease concern, Spanish economic minister Guindo declined to rule out a possible need for a rescue. Although he did go on to mention that Spain had covered almost 50% of 2012 financing needs. ...
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Asian stocks drop on China and Japan
As volumes returned to normal on Tuesday, stocks in Asia dropped, with the MSCI Asia Pacific Index falling 0.4% at 13:28 in Tokyo, after BoJ kept interest rates unchanged, while China witnessed an unexpected trade surplus.
BoJ kept the key interest rate unchanged between 0.0% and 0.10% and held back from additional easing measures; meanwhile no policymaker proposed additional stimulus after the economy has shown some signs of recovery.
This increased the appeal of the yen as a safe haven investment, adding to the downside pressures on equities, as it could damage demand on exports and lower the outlook for earnings.
Meanwhile, China reported an unexpected trade surplus in March after import growth eased from a 13-month high. This data along with Monday’s jump in inflation is damping ...
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Calm week for Europe with lack of major fundamentals and events
A new week has just started at the old continent, but European markets are still closed as Europeans are still enjoying the Easter; however, we can see that the European common currency is moving sharply driven by the U.S. dollar which continues to gain momentum after the Feds dismissed any near-time chances of quantitative easing.
The euro returns to decline after the correctional upside move seen on Friday, where the world's largest economy on Friday released the closely watched jobs report, reflecting fears that mixed with hopes as the economy added less than expected jobs in March, yet unemployment fell unexpectedly to 8.2%.
The effect of the jobs report was mixed yet temporary affecting the U.S. dollar negatively, where the greenback declined cutting some of the gains recorded in ...
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QE or not QE?
The Week Ahead
Highlights
QE or not QE?
BOJ under pressure to ease
No more support from the ECB
Will the UK avoid a recession?
Market Moves: Key Levels
QE or not QE?
The release of the FOMC minutes earlier this week and speeches by Fed officials have resulted in markets reducing their expectations of additional easing. However, today's disappointing jobs figures (120K in headline NFP vs. cons. 205K) have brought the speculation of more stimulus back into focus. To illustrate the extent of the negative surprise in the NFP print, the lowest estimate was for the addition of 175K payrolls out of the 80 economists surveyed by Bloomberg. QE3 chatter is making its rounds again in the markets and the US dollar has tumbled against most of the majors as heightened speculation ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 06/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks fluctuated between gains and losses on Thursday as region's debt worries were partly offset by small improvement in Wall Street. Stoxx Europe 600 index added 0.1%, Italian FTSE MIB index slipped 0.2% while Spanish IBEX 35 traded flat. UK FTSE 100 index advanced 0.4% whereas German DAX lost 0.1%. French CAC 40 index improved 0.2%.
USD
The US applications for jobless benefits dropped less than predicted for the week ended in March 31, Labor Department reported on Thursday. According to data 357 000 people submitted new claims last week. Economists earlier predicted the number of applications to reach 355 000. The US unemployment level was 8.3% in February.
GBP
UK manufacturing fell for the second consecutive month in February, signalling the ...
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Weak U.S. jobs figures could hit world equities
World stock markets look poised to fall early next week and safe-haven government debt prices could rally after U.S. employment figures fell short of expectations on Friday.
The MSCI All-County World Index .MIWD00000PUS has dipped 2.9 percent after hitting an eight-month high on March 27. Concerns about slower growth in the United States and China, along with a revival of worries about the euro-zone debt crisis, have reduced appetite for stocks.
"I think the market will grind higher, but it will be at a much slower pace," said Jack Ablin, chief investment officer at Harris Private Bank. "Earnings and jobs aren't helping."
The focus next week is likely to be on several key economic releases from China and the beginning of U.S. earnings season.
U.S. stock futures fell more than 1 percent ...
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