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German Trade BalanceTitle:
Anti-austerity votes press euro lower
The euro fell heavily across the board on Monday after Greek and French elections cast doubt on politicians' commitment to austerity plans aimed at tackling the euro zone debt crisis.
Traders said the euro, which hit a three-month low against the dollar, its lowest in 3-1/2 years against the British pound and a 2-1/2 month trough versus the yen, was likely to suffer further losses in coming days.
In the biggest blow to the common currency, the failure of Greece's two main parties supporting the country's international bailout to secure a parliamentary majority threw into question the future of the program and potentially the country's membership of the euro.
In France, Socialist Francois Hollande, who has pledged to balance the budget but more slowly than his opponent, ousted centre- ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 07/05/2012
Fundamental News
The new Euro-zone politics will dominate markets throughout this week, as anti-austerity political parties take hold in Europe. The confirmation of Hollandes victory in France marks the end of the Merkel-Sarkozy dominance at the political heart of Europe. Investors are acutely aware of the new leader's distain for austerity measures and some elements of the EU's new fiscal treaty. Mr Hollande has vowed not to ratify the new EU treaty unless new growth promoting measures are added, which is going to significantly draw-out the process of fiscal integration, if not stop it altogether. While in Athens, both mainstream political parties saw a dramatic collapse in support with anti-austerity groups seizing the opportunity to bolster their support. The head of the Syriza party, ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 04/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- U.S. job creation may have weakened in the last few months, but the grounds for sustaining stronger employment growth are more fertile now than have been since the economic recovery began. Europe's labor market, by contrast, is likely to deteriorate further before it gets better.
- Europe's (nonfinancial) corporate sector is highly leveraged. As balance sheet adjustments are made, Europe risks further decreases in investment, higher layoffs, and lower economic growth. These effects are compounded by deleveraging in the public sector.
- U.S. corporations, by contrast, are more profitable and liquid than they have ever been. At some point some of these funds will be unleashed towards new investment, creating a positive ...
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When Will Volatility Pick Up
The Week Ahead
Highlights
When will volatility pick up
Digesting payrolls
Will there be more QE for the UK?
Data Watch
When will volatility pick up?
Volatility in US Treasuries is at its lowest level since 2007, so too is volatility in the FX options market for short-term EURUSD products and the Vix has fallen sharply since peaking in autumn 2011. Yet Europe's sovereign stresses remain as strong as ever, Spain and Italy are struggling to sell their sovereign debt to anyone bar their domestic banking sectors and election risks are enormous as Greece and France go to the polls on Sunday.
So why is volatility so low? The answer lies with central banks and fairly tight FX ranges. When central banks come in and pledge that interest rates will remain extremely low until 2014, ...
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European Market Update : 04/05/2012
Major European Services PMI again disappoints; Focus now on US April Non-Farm Payroll report
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: 983M borrowed in overnight loan facility v 638M prior; 805.7B parked in deposit facility v 803.1B prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply (RUB): 6.90T v 6.91T prior
(SE) Sweden Apr Services PMI: 48.6 v 52.6 prior (First contraction since Nov)
(ES) Spain Apr Net Unemployment M/M: -6.6K v -15.0Ke
(UK) Apr Halifax House Prices M/M: -2.4% v -0.8%e; 3M/Y: -0.5% v +0.4%e
(ES) Spain Apr Services PMI: 42.1 v 45.4e (10th straight of contraction)
(CH) Swiss Mar Real Retail Sales Y/Y: 4.2% v 1.1%e
(SE) Sweden Mar Service Production M/M: 0.9% v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 2.8% v 1.5%e
(IT) Italy Apr PMI Services: 42.3 v 43.7e
(FR) France Apr Final PMI Services: 45.2 v 46.4e
(DE) ...
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European Market Update : 03/05/2012
Markets focus to see whether the ECB paves the way for further easing
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e Apr 27th: $523.3B v $519.5B prior
(IN) India Apr Markit Services PMI: 52.8 v 52.3 prior
(UK) Apr Nationwide House Prices M/M: -0.2% v +0.5%e; Y/Y: -0.9% v -0.3%e
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Services PMI: 52.2 v 52.1 prior
(CH) Swiss Q1 UBS Real Estate Bubble Index: 0.95 v 0.80 prior
(HU) Hungary Feb Final Trade Balance: 691.2M v 690.1M prelim
(TR) Turkey Apr Consumer Prices M/M: 1.5% v 1.4%e; Y/Y: 11.1% v 11.0%e; Core CPI Y/Y: 0.1% v 7.9% prior
(TR) Turkey Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.1 v 0.4% prior; Y/Y: 7.7% v 8.2% prior
(BR) Brazil Apr FIPE CPI: 0.5% v 0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Services: 53.3 v 54.1e
(HK) Hong Kong Mar Retail Sales Value Y/Y: 17.3% v 14.0%e; Retail Sales ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 02/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German jobless rate unexpectedly climbed first time in last six months as debt turmoil curbed economic growth. The number of unemployed people increased by 19 000, reaching 2.87 million, compared to an expected drop by 10 000 people. The adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8%.
USD
Mitt Romney announced that Yuan's 23% appreciation versus U.S. Dollar in last five years is not enough and branded world's second largest economy as currency manipulator. Romney promised in his campaigns to put more pressure on China as he claimed Obama hasn't done enough to boost stronger Yuan. Economists questioned by Bloomberg expected Yuan to climb versus greenback to CHY 6.15 by the end of 2012.
GBP
FTSE 100 index traded lower on Wednesday as record high unemployment level and ...
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Is Germany Starting To Crack?
The European morning session has been fairly volatile for FX markets, with the euro starting off looking fairly well supported at 1.32 and then falling through the floor on the back of some weak Eurozone economic data. The first blow to the single currency came from Germany where it was reported that the unemployment rate jumped by 19,000 in April and the unemployment rate had been revised up to 6.8% from 6.7% for March, which is where it remained last month. This is the largest increase in German unemployment for three years. Although a German labour market official said the decline could be down to the timing of Easter, it was enough to spook the markets.
Not such a two-speed economy?
The other blow to hit the market was the fall in the German manufacturing PMI survey to 46.2, the ...
Title:
European Market Update : 02/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data disappoints; Weak German jobs data blamed on Easter holiday
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: 606M borrowed in overnight loan facility v 619M prior; 789.3B parked in deposit facility v 794.0B prior (Monday)
(IN) India Apr Markit Manufacturing PMI: 54.9 v 54.7 prior
(DE) Germany Mar ILO Employment (Seasonally Adj): 41.459 v 41.406M prior; Unemployment Rate: 5.6% v 5.6% prior
(SE) Sweden Apr Swedbank PMI Survey: 50.2 v 50.5e
(PL) Poland Apr Manufacturing PMI: 49.2 v 49.5e
(HU) Hungary Mar Producer Prices M/M: +0.2% v -1.3% prior; Y/Y: 6.4% v 6.7%e
(NO) Norway Apr PMI: 53.7 v 57.0e
(TR) Turkey Apr Manufacturing PMI: 52.3 v 49.6 prior
(ES) Spain Apr Manufacturing PMI: 43.5 v 43.6e (three-year low)
(TH) Thailand Central Bank leaves Benchmark Interest Rate ...
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