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German And Eurozone ActivityTitle:
EU Data Deteriorates
The euro remained under pressure against most of the majors after disappointing economic data and as the EU summit concluded without giving markets any indication of significant progress. European leaders debated the topic of eurobonds and whether or not it would contribute to growth. Germany remaining firmly opposed to the joint bonds saying that it would give countries with already large deficits incentive to continue to spend.
Economic data out of Europe added to the deterioration in sentiment as German, French, and Eurozone May PMI figures printed below expectations. Manufacturing PMI's in Germany, France, and the EZ fell to 44.4 (cons. 47.0), 45.0 (cons. 46.8), and 45.0 (cons. 46.0) respectively. The below 50 readings indicated ongoing contractions in manufacturing. Furthermore, ...
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Asian stocks driven lower by downgrades in China, Japan ahead of EU summit
Ahead of a meeting of European leaders, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.5% at 12:31 in Tokyo after investors lost their appetite for risk after they were spooked by the mounting worries over Greece exiting the eurozone, while BoJ held its monetary policy unchanged although growth is slowing.
Greece’s former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said yesterday that while it is unlikely that the nation will leave the eurozone, the risks are still high. And if this would prove to be the case, other countries may follow, warned Jin Liqun, chairman of China Investment Corp.
Meanwhile, one day after Fitch cut the Japan’s rating by one notch to A-plus from AA with negative outlook, citing “high and rising public debt” burden, Japan showed a slowdown in its exports during April, adding to ...
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Safe-Haven Dollar
Forex News and Events:
Friday’s trading session was mostly uneventful with all the focus shifted to Facebook’s IPO. Many markets that had been freefalling these last two weeks caught a breather, with gold, silver, and the EUR gaining 1.12%, 2.57% and 0.63% respectively against the USD. The reversal has been attributed to a weak Philly Fed reading on economic activity in a sign that the world’s reserve currency is riskier than panicked markets are pricing. The weak number raised speculation over a new round of interventions from the part of the Fed in order to boost its economy. WTI however, was not able to profit from this reversal as it dropped to a six-month low before closing at 91.33. A 22-year high in inventory levels for the US could explain the decoupling of oil from the rest of ...
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Asian Market Update : 21/05/2012
Equities and risky FX bounce after G8 commitment to Greece and China hints of easing
Economic Data
(JP) JAPAN MAR ALL INDUSTRY ACTIVITY INDEX M/M: -0.3% V -0.1%E (3rd consecutive decline)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR NET MIGRATION: -850 V 230 PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR CREDIT CARD SPENDING M/M: 0.2% V 0.4% PRIOR; Y/Y: 3.7% V 5.3% PRIOR
(TH) THAILAND Q1 GDP Q/Q: 11.0% V 10.0%E; Y/Y: +0.3% V -0.5%E
(UK) UK MAY RIGHTMOVE HOUSE PRICE M/M: 0.0% V 2.9% PRIOR (4-month low); Y/Y: 2.0% V 3.4% PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 +0.7%
S&P/ASX +0.3%
Kospi +0.9%
Shanghai Composite +0.2%
Hang Seng -0.1%
Jun S&P Futures +0.5% at 1,297
June gold +0.4% at $1,599/oz
June Crude +0.5% at $91.90
Overview/Top Headlines
Asian equity markets, commodities, and risk-on FX opened the new week ...
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Asia Session: Wen Steals The Spotlight From The G8 Summit
The dollar and the yen were lower across the board as Chinese Premier Wen spurred hopes of more growth stimulating measures from Beijing. At the same time, equity markets were lifted by the risk-on sentiment, but gains were limited by lingering fears about a possible Greek exit from the euro.
Furthermore, the G8 summit over the weekend failed to provide any guidance for investors, with those in attendance simply repeating well used comments about keeping the Eurozone intact and ensuring Greece doesn’t fall off a cliff. It now appears the countries in attendance are renewing calls for the larger and healthier Eurozone nations, like Germany, to assist their struggling neighbour countries, which comes at a time when debt markets appear to be questioning the health of Italy and Spain. Yet, ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
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Europe Steps Closer to the Cliff Edge
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
Can the USD extend its rally?
Bank of Japan may extend maturity of its bond buys
Pricing in more QE from the Bank of England
Europe steps closer to the cliff edge
It was a pivotal week for the Eurozone after Greece announced that it was heading back to the polls after the top three parities failed to form a coalition government. So now Greece is leaderless, there is a caretaker government in place but it won't be able to enforce the austerity required to get the next tranche of bailout funds necessary for Greece to avoid running out of money in July. So as time runs out for Greece the European authorities have been clear: the upcoming election is a referendum on euro-membership. Either vote for pro bailout ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible.
USD
As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99.
GBP
Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 14/05/2012
Consumer sentiment in the U.S. rose to 77.8 in May from the final April reading of 76.4, according to a report released by Reuters and the University of Michigan on Friday. While, the Labor Department said on Friday that its producer price index fell by 0.2 percent in April. According to Bloomberg news, Sales at U.S. retailers probably slowed in April as the weather turned more seasonable and consumers took a breather following a pre-Easter holiday buying spree, economists said before a report this week. The projected 0.2 percent gain in purchases would follow a 0.8 percent advance in March, according to the median forecast of 68 economists surveyed by Bloomberg News ahead of Commerce Department figures on May 15. Events in the U.S, likely to affect the markets this week are: Monday; a ...
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