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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 02/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
17-country FMs voted in favour of a firewall package adding EUR 500 billion (USD 667 billion) fresh rescue cash to EUR 300 billion already provided to bailout programs. The overall firewall size now totals USD 1 trillion plus about EUR 1 trillion ECB aid to the region's lenders. Europe has met the requirements and now awaits talks with IMF on April 20 to get more support, French FM Francois Baroin said over the weekend.
USD
US car sales are likely to have remained strong last month, say auto producers. The sales are likely to have climbed at the fastest pace in the last four years in the March quarter amid improved outlook on the US economy. Strong US sales are likely to have offset weak demand from the Euro Zone, the auto makers added.
GBP
UK home prices ...
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Heavy Volatility Predicted for Non-Farm Payrolls Week
Following a relatively mild session last week, traders can anticipate significant market activity in the coming days, as a batch of significant US news is set to be released. While the most attention will be given to Friday's Non-Farm Employment Change figure, investors will be also looking at today's ISM Manufacturing PMI and tomorrow's FOMC Meeting Minutes for clues as to the current state of the US economy. Positive news may help the dollar move up vs. its main currency rivals, including the euro and Japanese yen.
Economic News
USD - Manufacturing Data May Give USD a Boost Today
The US dollar saw a mixed day on Friday to close out last week's trading session, as positive euro-zone news generated some risk taking in the marketplace. The passage of Spain's budget gave investor ...
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Technical analysis of the AUD/USD parity on March 29th, 2012
Commentary of the AUD/USD parity:
The pair AUD/USD has continued its bearish movement yesterday and the breakout of 1.04 just gave us a new sell signal.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still moving into a bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 1.05 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.04 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 1.03.
In case of return above 1.05, we will be neutral between this level and 1.0550.
The breakout of 1.0550 will give a buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the AUD/USD parity of March 28th, 2012
AUD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CAD pair on March 29th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CAD pair :
The pair USD/CAD has continued its rebound yesterday and retraced all its last bearish movement.
The breakout of 0.9972 gave us a buy signal.
All indicators are bullish.
We now advise to trade only long positions as far as 0.9950 is support.
The breakout of 1.0020 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 1.0079.
In case of return below 0.9950, we will be neutral between this level and 0.9934.
The breakout of 0.9934 will give a sell signal.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CAD pair of March 28th, 2012
USD/CAD Analysis
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Yen firms up, but year-end support seen waning
The yen was a shade stronger across the board on Thursday but could see renewed pressure as buying linked to Japan's financial year-end looks to have peaked.
Although the last day for spot trading in the business year to March 31 was on Wednesday, real-money flows from Tokyo kept main currencies under pressure against the yen, with some exporters spotted selling the dollar in large amounts.
The yen's broad advance was driven mostly by its gains versus the biggest loser on the day, the Australian dollar, and picked up steam versus the greenback after stop-losses were triggered as the pair breached a recent support level.
"Despite the year-end deals going through and dovish comments from the Fed's Bernanke, we're seeing the dollar is resilient against the yen, said Sumino Kamei, senior ...
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Shares fall, Bunds flat amid end-Q1 jostling
European shares fell on Wednesday while core government bonds steadied, with investors trimming positions before the end of a first quarter that has seen abundant central bank liquidity and better U.S. economic data buoy a range of assets.
Such adjustment was also evident in the currency market, where a broad-based rise in the safe-haven yen was accentuated by Japanese exporters' sales of foreign currency before the March 31 end of Japan's fiscal year.
With European data thin on the ground, markets turned their focus across the Atlantic, where comments on Tuesday by Federal Reserve chief Ben Bernanke fuelled investor bets on further U.S. monetary stimulus.
"The focus remains on growth indicators," said Lauren Rosborough, currency strategist at Societe Generale.
"To the extent that ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 28/03/2012
Dukascopy Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"The euro area’s debt crisis is “almost over"
- Italian Prime Minister Mario Moni (based on Bloomberg)
The pair is attempting to advance further and it is likely to test the 7-month high at 1.3457.
EUR/JPY
"The yen move is driven by supply and demand before the final exchange-rate fixing of the fiscal year. I think we’ll start to see some rise in demand to buy JPY"
- Mizuho Corporate Bank Ltd. (based on Bloomberg)
EUR/JPY is holding bullish impetus while recovering from the 20-day average at 108.97.
GBP/USD
"Tesing that level is very much on the cards, but having said that, front-end sterling rates are pushing lower this morning and this could be having a bearing on the currency"
- Lloyds TSB (based on Reuters)
GBP/USD has successfully tested the ...
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Dukascopy Afternnon Forex Overview : 27/03/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
BMW AG, German car maker will recall 120,246 cars in China due to the difficulties with the automobile's batteries, nation's quality control agency reported on Tuesday. The recollection of the Coupe, BMW 6 Series Convertible, BMW 6 Series and BMW 5 Series, vehicles produced between year 2003 and 2010 will begin in May 10. An installation problem of the batteries can create safety risks, quality control agency claimed.
USD
US businesses project slower pace of revenue growth in China in 2012 amid rising operation costs and worries over global stagnation, according to survey of American Chamber of Commerce. About 43% of the firms surveyed expect increase in sales to approach 11% this year as compared to a 15% increase in 2011. The major contributors to ...
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