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China’s growth engine cooling down
Forex News and Events:
As anticipated in Friday’s newsletter, China cut its Reserve Requirement Ratio for the second time this year. Shielded by easing inflation, Chinese authorities relaxed their grip on banks’ cash reserves parked at the PBoC through a 50 basis point cut effective starting May 18. This measure will allow the RRR to drop to 20% for the main national financial institutions and will release an estimated CNY 400bn in capital into the market. The move came after the publication of a weaker-than-expected Chinese Trade balance on Thursday, indicating exports and imports grew by 4.9% and 0.3% y-o-y respectively, a far cry from the 10 and 11 percent goals for the year. The near-zero import growth could be explained by the piling up of metal domestic inventories and might affect ...
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Stock index futures signal lower start
U.S. stock index futures pointed to a lower open on Wall Street on Monday, with S&P 500 futures down 1 percent and contracts for the Dow Jones and Nasdaq 100 down 0.9 percent at 04:53 a.m. EDT (0853 GMT).
European shares hit new four-month lows on Monday as Greece's failure to form a government heightened fears it could quit the euro zone, while signs that China was struggling to shore up its economy cast a shadow on global growth prospects.
Japan's Nikkei .N225 share average inched higher on Monday to end a three-day losing streak.
JPMorgan Chase & Co (JPM.N) lost $15 billion in market value and a notch in its credit ratings on Friday while a chorus of regulators and politicians reacted to its surprise $2 billion trading loss by demanding stiffer oversight for the banking industry.
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Greek woes drag euro to near 4-months lows; Aussie dips
The euro fell to a near four-month low on Monday as political uncertainty in Greece deepened, keeping alive the risk of the country exiting the euro zone while worries about slowing Chinese and global growth drove down higher-yielding currencies.
Safe-haven currencies like the U.S. dollar and the Japanese yen advanced as coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday and Greece's radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of talks on Monday, all but ensuring another election next month.
Adding to the bearish tone, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday in an election in Germany's most populous state, a result which could embolden the left opposition to step up attacks on her European austerity ...
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Gold ticks up on bargain hunting; off 4-month low
Gold edged up on Monday as bargain hunters lifted prices from four-month lows, but gains were capped as an inconclusive Greek election raised the risk the country could exit the euro zone and fanned fears of a worsening debt crisis in the region.
Gold has moved in tandem with riskier assets this year as the turmoil in Europe sent the euro to multi-month lows and investors turned to the safety of the dollar, analysts said.
The U.S. dollar has also been supported by optimism that more positive labor market numbers will be seen soon.
Gold hit an intraday high at $1,585.39 an ounce and was barely changed at $1,578.45 by 0615 GMT. Bullion had tumbled to a low of around $1,573 on Friday, its weakest since early January, on fears that the debt crisis in Europe will hurt global economic growth.
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Euro hits 4-months low on Greece jitters; Aussie dips
The euro hit its lowest level in nearly four months on Monday after Greek political leaders failed in their latest efforts to form a ruling coalition, keeping investors on edge over the risk of the country exiting the euro zone.
Coalition talks in Greece hit an impasse on Sunday and Greece's radical leftist leader spurned an invitation from the president for a final round of talks on Monday, all but ensuring a new election.
Adding to the negative tone, German Chancellor Angela Merkel's conservatives suffered a crushing defeat on Sunday in an election in Germany's most populous state, a result which could embolden the left opposition to step up attacks on her European austerity policies.
The euro seems likely to head lower in coming weeks, especially since the European Central Bank may ...
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Technical analysis of the EUR/GBP pair on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/GBP pair:
The pair EUR/GBP made a pullback last friday on the resistance at 0.8050.
The bearish gap which ocurred at the opening is still not filled in.
All indicators are bearish.
The pair is still moving into a bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.8075 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.80 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.7950.
In case of return above 0.8075, we will be neutral between this level and 0.81.
The breakout of 0.81 will give a buy signal.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP pair of May 11th, 2012
EUR/GBP Analysis
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Technical analysis of the EUR/USD pair on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the EUR/USD pair :
The pair EUR/USD made last friday a pullback on the lower band of its medium term bearish channel (purple lines).
The pair has opened the week on a bearish gap and has validated the breakout of the support at 1.29.
The bearish gap is still not filled in.
All indicators are bearish.
We continue to advise short positons as far as 1.30 is resistance.
The breakout of 1.2850 and 1.28 will both give a new sell signal.
In case of return above 1.30, we will wait the breakout of 1.3063 to advise long positions.
See the previous analysis of the EUR/USD pair of May 11th, 2012
EUR/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the NZD/USD pair on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the NZD/USD pair :
The pair NZD/USD has continued its bearish movement and opened on a bearish gap below the support at 0.7838 (new sell signal).
The gap is still not filled in.
All indiactors are bullish.
The pair is moving into its former bearish channel (purple lines).
We continue to advise short positions as far as 0.7950 is resistance.
The breakout of 0.78 will give a new sell signal and open the way towards 0.7754.
In case of return above 0.7950, we will be neutral between this level and 0.80.
See the previous analysis of the NZD/USD pair of May 11th, 2012
NZD/USD Analysis
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Technical analysis of the USD/CHF pair on May 14th, 2012
Commentary of the USD/CHF pair :
The pair USD/CHF has continued its bullish movement by opening the week on a bullish gap, leading to the breakout of the resistance at 0.93 (new buy signal).
The opening gap is still not filled in.
All indicators are bullish.
We continue to advise long positons as far as 0.9250 is support.
The breakout of 0.9350 will give a new buy signal and open the way towards 0.94.
In case of return below 0.9250, we will be neutral between this level and 0.92.
See the previous analysis of the USD/CHF pair of May 11th, 2012
USD/CHF Analysis
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