ForexTribe is a french website mainly created to share graphic analysis and trade ideas on the Forex Forum.
FormerTitle:
Analysis: China steel mills too big to fail - or succeed
(Reuters) - In a ramshackle township in northwest China's Shaanxi province, red Communist Party banners call on a nearby steel mill's workers to seek "progress" and avoid making "backward steps".
The slogans demonstrate the hybrid nature of China's floundering steel sector, which as it tries to serve the twin masters of the state and the market has seen margins plummet and racked up a mountain of debt.
Beijing's attempts to tackle the problems by forcing lumbering state-owned mills to consolidate or push up the value chain look likely to aggravate rather than solve the problems of a sector that accounts for 3-4 percent of China's GDP.
An obvious solution - to allow the worst performers to go out of business - seems unlikely in an industry identified by Chairman Mao Zedong nearly half a ...
Title:
European Market Update : 01/05/2012
UK PMI Manufacturing comes in below expectations but holds above the 50 level
Economic Data
(AU) Reserve Bank of Australia (RBA) cuts Cash Target by 50bps to 3.75%; more than expected
(PE) Peru Apr Consumer Price Index M/M: 0.5% v 0.4%e; Y/Y: 4.1% v 3.9%e
(JP) Japan Apr Vehicle Sales Y/Y: 92.0% v 78.2% prior
(IN) India Mar Trade Balance: -$13.9B v -$13.9Be; Exports Y/Y: -5.7% v + 4.3% prior; Imports Y/Y: 24.3% v 20.7% prior
(IE) Ireland Apr NCB Manufacturing PMI: 50.1 v 51.5 prior
(AU) Australia Apr RBA Commodity Price Index Au: 99.5 v 99.1 prior; Commodity Index SDR Y/Y: -4.2% v 2.1% prior
(DK) Denmark Mar Retail Sales M/M: 0.2 v 0.1% prior; Y/Y: +1.2% v -0.2% prior
(UK) Apr PMI Manufacturing: 50.5 v 51.5e (lowest since Dec 2011)
(DK) Denmark Apr PMI Survey: 61.8 v 53.0 prior (12-month ...
Title:
London Session: Another Week Another Round Of European Downgrades
Spain was in focus this morning after rating agency Standard & Poor's downgraded 11 of Spain's largest banks, which comes only a few days after the agency cut Spain's sovereign rating to BBB+ with a negative outlook. The bank/ sovereign feedback loop is getting more and more toxic for Spain. Like Ireland, bad bank debts seem to lead back to the government, while Spanish banks see their capital bases eroded when Spanish bonds weaken since they hold so much domestic sovereign debt. The only 'good' news was that Spain's official GDP figures for Q1 were slightly less bad than expected. The economy contracted by 0.3% rather than the 0.4% that was forecast by the market (and announced by the Bank of Spain 2 weeks ago). It's difficult to know why there was an improvement as the bulk of the detail ...
Title:
EUR/USD Ignored The S&P Downgrade Of Spain
Sunrise Market Commentary : 30/04/2012
- Fixed Income: new highs for Bund Future (141.38) and US Note Future (132-17)
- Core bonds set new contract highs on Friday after the Spanish rating downgrade. However, sentiment changed in the European session and led to return action. Today, trading will be thin ahead of tomorrow's Labour Day Holiday in most of Europe. Main items this week will be the ECB meeting (Thursday) and the US payrolls (Friday).
- Currencies: EUR/USD ignored the S&P downgrade of Spain.
- On Friday morning, the focus on the European markets was on the S&P downgrade of Spain. However, the reaction developed in a very orderly way. EUR/USD reversed the early losses and the dollar lost further ground after the weaker than expected US GDP. USD/JPY is testing the key ...
Title:
Asian Market Update : 30/04/2012
Yen at 2-month highs in the wake of disappointing BOJ and sluggish US GDP
Economic Data
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR PRIVATE SECTOR CREDIT M/M: 0.4% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 3.4% V 3.2%E
(AU) AUSTRALIA MAR HIA NEW HOME SALES M/M: -9.4% V +3.0% PRIOR (multi-year low)
(AU) AUSTRALIA APR TD SECURITIES INFLATION M/M: 0.3% V 0.5% PRIOR; Y/Y: 1.9% V 1.8% PRIOR
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR BUILDING PERMITS M/M: 19.8% V 6.0%E
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR NBNZ ACTIVITY OUTLOOK: 36.1 V 38.8 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: 35.8 V 33.8 PRIOR (8-month high)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND MAR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$) 134M V 417ME
(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAR INDUSTRIAL PRODUCTION M/M: -3.1% V +0.2%E; Y/Y: 0.2% V 2.2%E
(KR) SOUTH KOREA MAY BUSINESS SURVEY MANUFACTURING: 90 V 85 PRIOR; NON MANUFACTURING: 85 V 82 PRIOR
(SI) SINGAPORE Q1 UNEMPLOYMENT RATE PRELIM: 2.1% V 2. ...
Title:
Mexican Peso Erases Losses as Bank of Mexico Doesn’t Cut Interest Rates
The Mexican peso trimmed its losses versus the US dollar today after the nation’s central bank left it key overnight interbank funding rate unchanged for the 26th consecutive meeting, disappointing traders who expected an interest rate cut.
The Banco de Mexico left it main interest rate at the record low of 4.5 percent today. The Bank was keeping the target rate at this level since July 2009. Many speculators expected an interest rate cut and were frustrated as the central bank announced its decision. The peso recovered some of its losses as the cut was priced in.
The Mexican currency still doesn’t look attractive. The currency has slid 3.8 percent in the past four weeks and was the worst performer among most-traded currencies. The weakness of the peso may be one of the reasons that made ...
Title:
The Weekly Bottom Line : 27/04/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- Europe provided plenty of negative headlines this week. Both Spain and the U.K. confirmed their economies fell back in recession, while the former saw its unemployment rate jump to 24.4%.
- The Dutch government collapsed over a dispute regarding fiscal tightening measures and S&P downgraded Spain's sovereign rating by two notches to BBB+.
- Although unspectacular, things were better in the U.S. First quarter GDP growth came softer than expected. However moderate, a 2.2% q/q annualized economic expansion feels comforting against the European backdrop.
Canada
- Retail trade slid by 0.2% in February as auto sales declined following strong January results.
- Newfoundland and Labrador brought down its budget, ...
Title:
Oil report seen supporting Iran sanctions
(Reuters) - Global oil inventories grew over the last two months despite the loss of further supplies from Iran, according to a U.S. report that gave leeway for the Obama administration to press ahead with sanctions on the OPEC nation.
The Energy Information Administration report, required every 60 days by the Iran sanctions law President Barack Obama signed in December, gave a mostly positive assessment of global oil supplies, which typically build at this time of year.
World oil and motor fuel supplies exceeded demand by 500,000 barrels per day in March and April, the EIA said, allowing consumer countries to build cushions against any potential losses from U.S. and EU measures against Tehran.
Inventories were helped by strong production from Saudi Arabia, which pumped 9.8 million ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 26/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"There’s a bit of risk back on after some positive company numbers helped stocks and improved the tone of the markets"
- Eric Wand, a fixed-income strategist at Lloyds Banking Group Plc
Demand for Spanish and Italian debt rose, pushing Spanish and Italian bonds higher, as investors turned to higher-yielding assets after companies from Apple to Swedbank reported better than forecast earnings.
USD
"The committee expects economic growth to remain moderate over coming quarters and then to pick up gradually"
- Federal Open Market Committee
U.S. durable goods orders tumbled below forecast in March, a sign the manufacturing sector may be losing momentum. Bookings for long lasting goods dropped 4.2 percent, said the Commerce Department on Wednesday.
GBP
" could be ...
|