Forecasts The Weakest Growth

(Reuters) - Copper firmed a little on Thursday after sinking to a 4-1/2 month low in the previous session but remained under pressure as downbeat data from the European Union raised worries that global economic weakness will hit demand for industrial metals. Benchmark copper on the London Metal Exchange was trading at $7,589.50 a tonne by 0939 GMT, 0.8 percent up from a close at $7,531 on Wednesday. The metal, used in power and construction, has dropped on risk aversion triggered by worries about Greece's possible exit from the euro zone. Business surveys showed Germany's manufacturing sector has been shrinking at the fastest rate in three years in May and the euro zone's private sector has sunk further into the doldrums this month as new orders shrivel, forcing firms to run down ...

Euro hits fresh 2012 lows ahead of informal summit; More reports of an ECB contingency plan in the works Economic Data (GR) Greece Mar Current Account: -€2.1B v €1.1B prior (NL) Netherlands Mar Consumer Spending Y/Y: % v -1.3% prior (SE) Sweden Apr Unemployment Rate: % v 7.8%e (EU) Euro Zone Apr Current Account: +€7.5B v -€5.6B prior; Current Account Seasonally Adj: +€7.5B v -€1.2B prior (IT) Italy May Consumer Confidence: 86.5 v 89.5e (lowest reading on record after series began in 1996)) (ZA) South Africa Apr CPI (all items) M/M: 0.4% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: % v 6.2%e (TW) Taiwan Apr Industrial Production Y/Y: -2.3% v -1.7%e; Commercial Sales Y/Y: -2.4% v -0.9% prior (UK) Apr Retail Sales Ex Auto Fuel M/M: -1.0% v -0.7%e; Y/Y: -0.3% v +0.7%e (UK) Apr Retail Sales with Auto Fuel M/M: -0.8% ...

Brent crude oil edged up on Tuesday on as the euro zone narrowly avoided recession and as better-than-forecast German first-quarter GDP data raised hopes that Germany would steer the way through the European debt crisis. The euro zone economy stagnated with zero growth, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday, going against expectations of a recession. The results were more positive than forecast, boosting riskier assets, and counterbalancing Greek political woes and a strengthening dollar. However, analysts believe the downward trend will ultimately prevail. Brent crude rose by 53 cents to $112.10 a barrel by 1454 GMT and erasing the previous session's losses, when prices slid to $110.04, the lowest intraday price since January 25. U.S. crude fell 3 cents to $94.75 a ...

Brent crude oil futures gained on Tuesday, as the euro zone narrowly avoided recession and as better-than-forecast German first quarter GDP data raised hopes that Germany will steer the way through the European debt crisis. The euro zone economy stagnated, with zero growth, the EU's statistics office Eurostat said on Tuesday. The results were more positive than forecast, boosting riskier assets, but the region's debt crisis has sapped the life out of the French and Italian economies and widened a split with paymaster Germany. Brent crude rebounded from earlier losses, rising by 30 cents to $111.87 a barrel by 05:34 a.m. EDT (0934 GMT) after sliding to $110.04 on Monday, its lowest intraday price since January 25. U.S. crude dropped 22 cents to $94.56 a barrel, after Monday's fall to $ ...

U.S. consumer sentiment rose to its highest level in more than four years in early May as Americans remained upbeat about the job market, a survey released on Friday showed. Separate data earlier in the day showed U.S. producer prices unexpectedly fell in April as energy costs dropped by the most in six months, a sign of easing inflation pressures that could give the Federal Reserve more room to help the economy should growth weaken. The Thomson Reuters/University of Michigan's preliminary May reading on the overall index on consumer sentiment improved to 77.8 from 76.4 in April, topping forecasts for a small decline to 76.2. It was the highest level since January 2008. Despite the recent slowdown in job growth, nearly twice as many consumers reported hearing about new job gains than ...

Fundamental News Today’s highlights: · Halifax House Price Index (MoM) (GB, 08:00 GMT) · Retail Sales (MoM) (EUR, 10:00 GMT) · Nonfarm Payrolls + Unemployment Rate (U.S, 13:30 GMT) · Ivey PMI (CAD, 15:00 GMT) New claims for unemployment in the U.S. fell by 27,000 to a seasonally adjusted level of 365,000 and U.S worker productivity showed a 0.5 percent decline amid jump in hours worked, according to figures released Thursday by the Labor Department. The ISM said its non-manufacturing index dropped to 53.5 in April from 56.0 in March, although a reading above 50 indicates continued growth in the service sector. The ECB left its key interest rate unchanged for the fifth consecutive month in May, as expected. ECB President Mario Draghi left open the option ...

The Week Ahead Highlights US employment data in focus Bank of Japan underwhelms RBA likely to cut The SNB talks tough on the Swissie Is the UK economy really that weak? The Eurozone's growth pact US employment data in focus Earlier this week, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) held its 2-day policy meeting. The bank kept policy on hold and upgraded the economic assessment, however comments from Ben Bernanke - which did not provide any new insight in our view - kept Treasury yields low, equity markets supported, and the dollar soft with QE3 speculation back into focus. Fed projections showed upwards revision to real GDP growth with forecasts of 2.4%-2.9% for 2012 up from the prior 2.2%-2.7% estimate and the unemployment rate forecast was lowered to 7.8%-8% ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD The Australian dollar suffered after Australia‘s Q1 CPI inflation report came in much weaker than expected. Headline inflation fell sharply to +1.6% y/y (cons. 2.2%, prev. 3.1%). Market expectations had already been lowered by yesterday’s PPI report, but the scale of the miss was still surprising, and AUD promptly dropped 70pips. The rates market had previously priced in a full 25 bp cut from the RBA on May 1, but is now looking for 32bp of easing at the time of writing. Our Australia economists doubt it will come to that – instead they stick to their view that a full 50 bp of easing is indeed on the way, but will be spread evenly between the May and June RBA meetings. ECB policymakers continued to make their voices heard overnight with ...

U.S. Review Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend. Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note. Early Spring Brings Payback Period The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...