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Far As The Price Is AboveTitle:
Asia Session: Is There Going To Be Another Rate Cut By The RBA In June?
As expected the RBA cut its growth and inflation forecasts for 2012 and 2013 in its quarterly statement on monetary policy, noting that earlier predictions were overly optimistic. Yet, the report was not as dovish as the market was expecting, thus the aussie jumped almost 30 pips immediately following its release.
Domestically, the report towed a familiar line in terms of a two speed economy with the mining sector on one side and the rest of the economy on the other. The bank noted that the assumed high level of AUD and a weak short-term outlook for building construction are expected to weigh on non-mining sectors of the economy. Australia's labour market is a prime example of this, with softness in most parts of the economy being somewhat offset by increases in employment in the mining ...
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Gold falls 1 percent, U.S. nonfarm payrolls eyed
(Reuters) - Gold fell 1 percent on Thursday as tumbling crude oil prices and weak U.S. service-sector data sent bullion prices to their biggest one-day drop in a month ahead of a key U.S. nonfarm payrolls report.
The metal, which for most of the year has tracked the performance of riskier assets, accelerated losses after data showed the ISM services index fell to 53.5 last month from 56.0 in March, while the employment gauge slipped to the lowest level since December.
Analysts said the weak ISM data, however, was not enough to change the view that the Federal Reserve might hold off on additional quantitative easing, or government bond purchases, following a recent string of strong U.S. economic indicators.
Some investors reduced their bullish bets in gold as hopes for U.S. monetary ...
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Oil drops sharply on U.S. economic data, technicals
(Reuters) - Crude oil futures dropped for a second straight day on Thursday as more signs of slowing U.S. economic growth and swelling U.S. inventories sparked a wave of selling that sent prices crashing through key support levels.
U.S. crude ended 2.6 percent lower, the biggest one-day percentage loss since December 14, while Brent crude finished down 1.8 percent, racking up a 3 percent loss in two straight days, its biggest two-day percentage loss since February 28.
Slower-than-expected growth in the massive U.S. service sector dragged on markets as traders awaited the April U.S. payrolls data on Friday. Oil markets have been balancing supply concerns stemming from a string of disruptions across the globe and the potential loss of Iranian crude due to Western sanctions against fuel ...
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Federal Reserve officials at odds on jobs view
(Reuters) - The economy will likely grow at a moderate pace, inflation will stay low, and unemployment will fall, three top U.S. Federal Reserve officials on Thursday said in remarks prepared for delivery to an economic outlook summit.
But their conflicting views on the workings of the labor market suggested they will continue to spar on policy, as the U.S. central bank decides the path of interest rates that have been held near zero for more than three years.
Two of the Fed's more dovish policymakers - San Francisco Fed President John Williams and Atlanta Fed President Dennis Lockhart - blamed high employment on sluggish demand and far-from-blistering economic growth. If joblessness stems from low growth, the reasoning goes, continued easy monetary policy can help boost employment.
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Oil drops two percent on economic woes, awaits U.S. jobs data
(Reuters) - Crude oil futures tumbled 2 percent on Thursday as more signs of slowing U.S. economic growth encouraged investors to book profits on prices that had hit near the top of the current range, and as markets awaited a key U.S. jobs report on Friday.
The U.S. jobs market likely rebounded in April with hirings forecast to have increased, but optimism about that outlook was dented after data showed a slower-than-expected expansion in the vast service sector and retail sales fell.
Adding to bearish sentiment, an OPEC official said the producers' group was working hard to bring down oil prices to prevent demand from sliding and that total OPEC output was far in excess of its official target.
"Crude prices hit the top of their trading range recently and so people are selling and are ...
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U.S. Non-Manufacturing Sector Continued to Expand in April but at a Slower Pace
- The ISM non-manufacturing index dropped to 53.5 in April 2012 from 56.0 in the previous month.
- The drop in the headline measure in April was the result of less robust growth in most of the index's sub-components, with readings for "business activity," "new orders," and "employment" moving lower. The only component that saw an increase was "supplier deliveries."
- Today's report indicated that economic activity in non-manufacturing industries continued to expand during April, although at a slightly slower pace than in March. In terms of the details of the report, the decline in the employment index is somewhat discouraging; however, as this component saw one of its stronger quarterly readings ever in the first quarter of 2012 (possibly supported by unusually warm winter weather) ...
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USD Higher ahead of Labor Data, ECB Press Conference
USD drifting higher ahead of the ECB press conference and weekly initial jobless claims which are expected to decline to 379k from the prior week’s 388k. Risk sentiment is broadly higher with European bourses and US stock futures trading to the upside while UST yields are slightly higher. Of the G10 currencies, the buck is strongest against the NZD after an unexpected jump in NZ unemployment. The dollar index is firmly above the 79.00 figure and being supported by the daily Tenkan line, however it faces the convergence of the Kijun line and cloud base around the 79.40 area as near term resistance. On the data front, weekly jobless claims, 1Q nonfarm productivity, and unit labor costs are due at 0830ET while the ISM services report for April is due at 1000ET. Fed speakers today include ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The grim unemployment figures for March will likely encourage talk about a long overdue ‘growth pact’ for the euro zone"
- Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group
Euro area unemployment rose to the highest level since 1997 in March and manufacturing contracted in April, adding to signs the economy is still far from out of the woods.
USD
"Employment growth is slowing"
- David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector fell to 119,000 in April from a revised 201,000 in March, the ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
GBP
" points to clear, decent construction expansion in April"
- Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. construction sector expanded slower in April, compared ...
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SunBirdFX Daily Market Analysis : 05/03/2012
www.sunbirdfx.com
The ADP Non-Farm Employment Change significantly missed the analysts' expectations yesterday and this might suggest on the official NFP data on Friday. However, in spite the disappointing data, the US indices managed to close on mixed territory as they made long tails candlestick, which indicated for the strength of the buyers. The S&P 500 gets a strong support at 1395 points and as long as it stays above this level, it will have an upside.
EUR/USD
Before the most important data is published tomorrow, the investors will focus on the ECB press conference today, in which the interest rate level is expected to remain at 1.0%. We analyzed the pair on the beginning of the week and mentioned that it was moving in an uptrend channel and expected it to move between the support ...
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