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This Week In The USD: Sales, Manufacturing, And Inflation Data On Tap
This Week In The USD: Sales, Manufacturing, And Inflation Data On Tap
Following a week where there was a dearth of US releases, this week we have plenty. We open the week with several speeches, mainly from dovish FOMC members. On Tuesday, we focus on the trade balance data which is expected to show a narrowing deficit in February, and import prices - expected to surge 2.1% in March.
Wednesday, we shift to consumer spending as we get March's retail sales figures. At 0.6%, it's expected to come in a bit slower than February's 1.0%, but that is still modest strength in the US consumer right now. Wednesday afternoon we get the Beige Book, data about the country from the Fed regional banks. A good way to see the data that the FOMC is looking at.
The end of the week will give us fresh data on ...
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Gold hits record, silver soars on dollar decline
(Reuters) - Gold rose to a record high for a fourth straight day and silver surged on Friday, as a weaker dollar, the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown and inflation worries lifted precious metals in a broad commodities rally.
Gold notched its biggest weekly gain in four months, drawing support from renewed euro zone sovereign debt fears amid Portugal's financial crisis and inflation jitters as crude oil and corn hit new highs this week.
Bullion broke above key resistance on technical charts and could target above $1,500 an ounce. The metal has risen more than 10 percent since late January when political unrest began to flare in the Middle East and North Africa.
"With the expected future inflation being higher in this low interest rate environment, investors are more inclined to ...
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Analysis: Current commodity rally more selective than in 2008
(Reuters) - It's simple enough to see that many of the world's key commodities have surpassed their peaks from 2008, including gold, corn, and copper; others are still well behind, oil and wheat to name but two.
But the common theme is elusive: robust Chinese growth can help explain copper's buoyancy, but is irrelevant for coffee; loose money policy has clearly aided gold, but done less for oil; the tightest stocks since the Great Depression have fueled corn, while wheat is far from its peaks.
The deviation suggests investors may have grown more selective than three years ago, focusing on market-specific fundamentals over a broad desire for diversified exposure to the sector. The fear, of course, is a return of the herd mentality behind the historic ride -- and crash -- of 2008.
These ...
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May Rate Fears Ease, But Decision Still Finely Balanced
Economic Data Analysis
May Rate Fears Ease, But Decision Still Finely Balanced
* The surprise weakness of UK construction output in February raises downside risks to Q1 GDP growth, taking some of the heat out of the May interest rate debate. The market now attaches a sub-50% probability to a rate rise in May.
* UK CPI figures in the coming week could prove mildly supportive, with CPI inflation forecast to remain at 4.4%, with a downside risk. UK employment figures also due.
* An important week for the US with CPI and retail sales, the Fed's Beige Book and several speakers, and the start of the Q1 earnings season.
* After having stolen the spotlight with the Portugal bailout, this week's Euro area calendar looks thin on the ground. German ZEW, however, is likely to be ...
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Yen Under Pressure
FX Briefing
Highlights
* Yen continues to fall; EUR-USD on 15-month high
* ECB raises refi rate to 1.25%
* Portugal requests EU/IMF financial aid, Spanish credit risk premia keep falling
* Surge in German industrial production and new orders in February
Yen Under Pressure
Investors are continuing to favour currencies which stand to benefit from robust global economic growth and monetary policy tightening. Like last week, the European currencies and the Aussie (AUD), the Kiwi (NZD) and the Loonie (CAD) strengthened significantly. The Japanese yen was the weakest currency by far: whereas EUR-USD rose by 1.8% to 1.44, EUR-JPY gained 3.7%. USD-JPY increased by almost 2% to over 85.
The current movements in the forex market seem to be stemming from a reassessment of the yen. ...
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Euro climbs to 15-month high vs dlr on rate outlook
(Reuters) - The euro rose to a 15-month high against the dollar on Friday, supported by expectations of more euro zone interest rate increases, while the prospect of a U.S. government shutdown pushed the dollar broadly lower.
The euro was also helped by reported Middle East sovereign demand.
The dollar was pressured as the White House and Congress worked frantically to break a U.S. budget deadlock by the end of the day in order to avoid a government shutdown.
A shutdown will be far reaching, since among other actions it will stop the payment of government suppliers and possibly close private enterprises reliant on government operations.
The lost wages and spending will ripple through to other areas of the economy at a time of uncertain economic growth, though some analysts noted that ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview: 08/04/2011
Previous session overview
EURUSD has eliminated the USD1.4430 barriers in the latest push higher, though with further (Asian) intervention USD's to go today, the market had plenty of ammunition with which to do this. Estimates range between USD5-7bln of USD's having gone through - Bank of Korea has been active in USDKRW through the week. The next level through USD1.4430 now lies at just above USD1.4450, representing near term channel resistance. As the market has had to throw some real weight behind the USD1.4430 removal, this may prove a 'bridge too far' this side of the weekend.
USDCHF continues a broad down trend, though the recent price action has been hovering in a 20 pip range. It remains a key funding currency for carry trades and there certainly has not been much resolution ...
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US Budget on focus
USD
Risk sentiment has been supported overnight, mainly in response to the confirmation that the Fukushima nuclear plant has not suffered damage on the back of yesterday’s sizeable aftershock in northeast Japan. Hence most Asian stock market indices are trading firmly in the black. Elsewhere, US President Obama and Congressional leaders have so far failed to reach a budget deal to avoid a government shutdown. President Obama said less than 30 hours are left to reach an agreement, though he added that an agreement is still expected during the day. EURUSD traded 1.4292-1.4405 and USDJPY traded 84.97-85.39.
EUR
The ECB hiked the refinancing rate by 25bp as expected but the tone of the press conference was not enough to push market participants’ expectations too far in either direction. ...
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Forex - AUDUSD Hits New Highs As Risk Assets Rally
Forex News and Events:
Markets are breathing a collective sigh of relief this morning as the impact of the latest earthquake to hit Japan’s Fukushima nuclear plant appears to be negligible. Asian stock markets were quick to reflect the news with gains across the board, and risk currencies have been buoyed higher – most notably AUDUSD hit new all-time highs of 1.0538. Of course, the impressive gains in risk assets have also been fuelled by broad-based USD weakness as the prospect of US government shutdown looms large. Thus far, President Obama and Congressional leaders have failed to reach an agreement on a budget deal, and the clock is ticking down before a shutdown is enforced. Obama has stated he is still looking for an agreement to be reached before this final day is out; and if he is ...
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