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Far As The Price Is AboveTitle:
Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
Dutch Fears Trump French Elections
If you looked at the headlines from the weekend you may have thought that risk was poised to rally today. The first round of the French Presidential election was a tighter race than expected. Socialist Hollande won 27.1% of the vote while Sarkozy was not that far behind with 26.7%. The French left, which has called for ECB rate cuts and a re-negotiation of the EU's Fiscal Pact, did less well than expected, which should have calmed markets this morning. However, weak economic data out of the currency bloc combined with fears about the Dutch triple A credit rating has caused risk aversion to grip the markets at the start of this week.
Dutch budget wrangling hurts risk sentiment
The Netherlands has overtaken France as the largest political risk this week ...
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German manufacturing shrinks at fastest pace since 2009: PMI
(Reuters) - Germany's manufacturing sector unexpectedly shrank at the fastest pace in nearly three years in April, denting hopes it can drive growth in the euro zone and casting a shadow over upbeat business sentiment surveys.
Markit's manufacturing Purchasing Mangers Index (PMI) fell sharply to 46.3 from March's 48.4, according to a flash estimate released on Monday, well below the 50 mark which would sign al growth in activity.
It marked the fastest rate of contraction since July 2009 in the sector, which has been hit by a decline in some exports as the debt crisis in the euro zone has choked demand from
key trading partners.
Reports are that sales to southern Europe are particularly weak, so there is some evidence of troubles in the periphery (of the euro zone) spilling over to the ...
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EUR/USD Fails To Take Out First Resistance At 1.3213
Sunrise Market Commentary
Fixed Income: Political developments supportive for core EMU bonds
Political developments over the weekend are supportive for global core bonds, but strong technical resistance (contract high; inverted channel) come into play. In France, presidential candidate Hollande beat current president Sarkozy in the 1st round of the French election and in the Netherlands, the government fell as Dutch budget talks collapsed.
Currencies: EUR/USD fails to take out first resistance at 1.3213
On Friday, the euro was rather well bid. EUR/USD tested the 1.3213 resistance but failed to sustain above this level. EUR/GBP stayed below the 0.8222 previous range bottom, confirming the break of earlier last week. Cautious sentiment on risk will probably cap the topside ...
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Asian Market Update : 23/04/2012
China HSBC flash PMI recovers but still in contraction; Weak Aussie PPI points to rate cut; Dutch govt collapses
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA APR HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 49.1 V 48.3 PRIOR (6th month of contraction)
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 PRODUCER PRICE INDEX (PPI) Q/Q: -0.3% V +0.5%E (first decline since Q4 of 2009); Y/Y: 1.4% V 2.2%E (lowest since Q2 of 2010)
(SG) SINGAPORE MAR CPI M/M: 0.8% V 0.3%E; Y/Y: 5.2% V 4.7%E
(JP) JAPAN MAR NATIONWIDE SUPERMARKET SALES Y/Y: -2.4% V +0.3% PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN FEB FINAL LEADING INDEX: 96.3 V 96.6 PRELIM; COINCIDENT INDEX: 95.0 V 93.7 PRELIM
(HU) HUNGARY APR ECONOMIC SENTIMENT: -19.3 V -19.0 PRIOR; BUSINESS CONFIDENCE: -9.0 V -8.1 PRIOR; CONSUMER CONFIDENCE: -48.8 V -49.9 PRIOR
Markets Snapshot (as of 04:30GMT)
Nikkei225 -0.1%
S&P/ASX -0.2%
Kospi -1.2%
...
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Euro retreats as IMF provides little boost
(Reuters) - The euro retreated from two-week highs against the dollar on Monday, pausing after its best weekly performance since February and drawing limited support from the weekend decision to double the International Monetary Fund's war chest.
Worries about upcoming debt auctions in Italy and the Netherlands and concerns about a possible political backlash against austerity measures could keep the single currency in check in coming days, traders said.
The Australian dollar slid after local producer price data cemented expectations of a rate cut by the Reserve Bank of Australia next week while sterling clung to its newfound market-darling status in the wake of upbeat UK retail sales data.
"The increase in the IMF is just a safety net. That alone is not enough to boost risk assets," ...
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Awash in money and piles of debt
(Reuters) - The amount of money thrown at rescuing the world economy since the Great Recession began is truly staggering, probably more than $14 trillion, and the financial spigots are still open.
Industrialized and emerging nations pledged another $430 billion to boost the International Monetary Fund's lending power this weekend, doubling the size of its crisis-fighting war chest in case Europe's problems worsen and engulf more countries.
Three weeks earlier, European Union leaders set aside $1 trillion for Europe's bailout fund creating a firewall to prevent the euro zone's sovereign debt woes from spreading.
Major central banks haven't finished pumping money into the global economy either.
The Federal Reserve meets on Tuesday and Wednesday and the Bank of Japan meets on Friday, and ...
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First positive week in April for Wall Street; euro up too
(Reuters) - Strong corporate earnings gave Wall Street its first positive week for April with a gain on Friday, while the euro and oil prices rose as worries about Europe ebbed.
Reduced concerns about Spain's debt worries and a surprisingly strong reading on German business sentiment supported government debt prices as investors looked to the outcome of policymakers' meetings this weekend and early next week.
However, some wariness over Chinese manufacturing crept into the market late in the session to curtail stocks' gains.
On Wall Street, the S&P 500 finished up 0.1 percent, its first higher close in three days. The index rose 0.6 percent on the week, after losses in the two previous weeks.
The 10-year Treasury note was little changed as caution prevailed ahead of Sunday's French ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 20/04/2012
U.S. Review
Look Past the Monthly Volatility and See the Trend
This week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy that is growing at a modest pace. The milder-than-usual winter likely brought some activity forward and below-consensus readings are due in part to payback. Housing starts, existing home sales and industrial production all posted disappointing readings in March that are likely not indicative of the underlying trend.
Headline retail sales, however, came in more than double the consensus estimate in March, ending the first quarter on a positive note.
Early Spring Brings Payback Period
The full week of economic releases painted a somewhat mixed picture, but the underlying trend still reflects an economy ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 20/04/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The debt crisis is far from over still and I think Spain will be worse before it gets better"
- Henrik Drusebjerg, a senior equity strategist at Nordea Bank AB
Spain sold 2.54 billion euros of debt dated 2014 and 2022 on Thursday, above the target range of 1.5 to 2.5 billion euros for the auction.
USD
"Progress in the labor market is not quite as strong as people had hoped, but we are still on a recovery track here"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits declined by 2,000 to 386,000 in the week ended April 14 from the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Economic data does look like it is showing some stabilization"
- Samantha Fitzpatrick, senior ...
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