Extension Lowest Of July

This week, the main highlight was not on data from the euro zone as investors were focusing on European leaders waiting for final decision for Greece's second bailout. The week started and ended with mounting tensions as European leaders failed to reach an agreement over the second bailout for the debt-laden nation. Still, European officials could not bridge the difference between them to reach a unanimous decision as while Germany is in favor of letting private creditors to participate in the Greek bailout, the IMF in addition to Spain, Italy and Belgium are opposing it. German Chancellor Angela Merkel and the French President Nicolas Sarkozy agreed in their meeting in Berlin last week to allow private sector investors to have a role in the second bailout for Greece. However, the EU ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review "Tis the Season to be Jolly…" * This week's busy schedule of economic reports brought mostly good news. Revisions to third quarter GDP were slightly stronger than originally reported with real GDP growing at a 2.6 percent annualized pace. Recently released data on consumer spending along with trade suggests the economy likely expanded at around a 3.5 to 4.0 percent annualized pace in the fourth quarter. * Sales of both new and existing homes have improved in recent months, but growing from historically depressed levels. The rise in housing demand is not likely the start of a genuine housing recovery, however. Fourth Quarter Real GDP Outlook - "Fa La La La La…" This week's busy schedule of economic reports brought mostly good ...

USD Dollar performance was somewhat mixed during the Asia session. Modest gains were made against the euro, but the yen continued to strengthen with USDJPY breaking below the Sept 15 pre-intervention low to new 15-year lows without a response from the BoJ. The AUD stole the show after a stellar employment report that sent AUDUSD much higher until it bounced off the July 2008 high. Friday's payrolls report is already coming into focus after a disappointing ADP data print encouraged investors to continue to price in easing expectations. Gold made another new high at $1355.85/oz. EURUSD traded 1.3898-1.3940, USDJPY 82.82-83.07. The ADP estimate of private payrolls was -39k versus consensus +20k and the report suggests some downside risk to September payrolls. However, ADP has recently been ...

(Reuters) - New home sales slumped to the slowest pace on record in July and orders for costly durable goods were weak, heightening fears the economy was at risk of another downturn. The reports on Wednesday from the Commerce Department suggested growth could slow materially without government support and some economists saw the risk of a contraction in output in the third quarter. "If you don't get a pick-up in the next couple of months, it sure looks like it's possible the economy could contract in the third quarter," said Keith Hembre, chief economist at First American Funds in Minneapolis, Minnesota. The unrelenting flood of negative economic data is also bad news for the Obama administration, only months ahead of congressional elections in November, when Democrats risk losing a ...

(Reuters) - The euro stayed under broad pressure on Monday, hurt by concerns over the euro zone economy which have seen short positions in the single currency extended. The Australian dollar was dented by political uncertainty after an inconclusive general election. The latest Commodity Futures Trading Commission data showed an extension in euro short positions in the week ended August 17 as focus shifted away from specific concerns about the U.S. economy and back on to the euro zone. "There's a rotation going on and focus has shifted to conditions in the euro zone again. The market is trying to capitalize on it," said Paul Mackel, director of currency strategy at HSBC. Purchasing manager surveys were under scrutiny, with Germany's manufacturing sector expanding at its slowest pace in ...

The fulcrum of the American trading week and the view of the US economy shifted down, and the dollar future rose with the weekly jobless claims on Thursday. Behind the employment concerns lies the health and postponed recovery of the housing market. Without jobs the housing sector cannot recover and begin to add to GDP. New jobless claims for the week of August 14th increased 12,000 to 500,000. It is the largest weekly total since November 13th last year and it is the first 500,000 print this year. Economists had predicted a drop of 6,000 to 478,000. The prior week was revised up 4,000 to 488,000 from 484,000. The four-week moving average rose 8,000 to 482,500 from 474,500 the previous week. The average has gained almost 30,000 (29,250) in the past month. This is the highest monthly ...

Commentary of the EUR/GBP parity: The parity fake a return above 0.84. The price is now on its lowest of mid july below 0.8350. We maintain to trade only short positions as far as the price is below 0.84. The breakout of 0.8350 will give a new sell signal (0.8320 in extension). See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP parity of July 27th, 2010

Commentary of the EUR/GBP parity: The parity just got out of its range 0.8450/0.84. The breakout of 0.84 gave us a sell signal. All indicators are getting bearish. The price is currently testing 0.8350 (0.8317 in extension : lowest of July 13-14-15-23) We advise to trade only short positions as far as 0.84 is resistance. The breakout of 0.8350 will give a new sell signal and also the breakout of 0.83. As long as 0.83 is support, a pullback on 0.84 is possible. See the previous analysis of the EUR/GBP parity of July 23th, 2010

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review Home Is Where the Economy's Heart Is * Housing starts and existing home sales declined in June, reflecting the winding down of homebuyer tax credits. * Building confidence fell to 14 in July, and June's numbers were revised down slightly. * The effect from the unwinding of various economic stimulus programs is evident in other data, with the leading indicators declining 0.2 percent and weekly firsttime unemployment claims bouncing back to 464,000. * Bernanke's midyear report to Congress outlined possible future steps the Fed may take to boost economic growth. We Have Got to Get in Shape If the state of the nation's housing market is at the center of the economy's near-term prospects, then we have got to get in shape. ...