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Expectation The Euro ContinuesTitle:
Risk Retreat Continues, May Accelerate
The Week Ahead
Highlights
Risk retreat continues, may accelerate
The ECB gives the market a reality check
Germany risks raising ECB's ire
Slim chance of a rate hike from the BOE
No major changes expected from Bank of Japan
Crude oil searching for direction
Key data and events to watch next week
Risk retreat continues, may accelerate
Risk assets (stocks and commodities) continue to slide lower after topping out in early May on signs the global recovery was losing steam. Incoming data continues to highlight a slowdown in major developed economies, and the main question is whether this is only a temporary soft patch or the start of a more ominous deceleration in growth. Optimists can point to temporary factors, like the surge in energy prices, as the cause for ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 10/06/2011
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary
U.S. Review
Coming to Grips With Core Issues
Now that the era of stimulus is coming to an end, decision makers must come to grips with the economy that we have—not the one some commentators dream up. First, the housing sector continues to work through its issues, which means sustained subpar housing starts for several years in several metropolitan areas.
Second, the pattern of fiscal deficits (top graph) remains higher than in earlier economic recoveries. Forty years of promises for entitlements now face the reality of limited revenue growth at the federal and state level. The time of smoke and mirrors has passed.
Playing With the Hand You Are Dealt
Economic growth is just not as fast as many had hoped or had forecasted—so let’s deal ...
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The Persistence of a Global Slowdown
Economic Data Analysis
The Persistence of a Global Slowdown
Subdued sentiment continues in absence of economic guidance. US 10-year yield remains below 3%.
Key US surveys provide greater steer for markets this week. Retail sales expected to maintain resilience.
Lower oil prices ease immediate inflation pressure, but base effects over summer to push annual rates higher.
Firmer activity prospects and renewed upward trend in inflation could revive expectations for tighter monetary policy.
Domestically, retail sales likely to drop in wake of April's bank holiday spree.
Notwithstanding the fact that both the ECB and MPC left policy unchanged (the former signalling a near-term intent to tighten policy), last week saw little to guide markets on how key global economies were ...
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The dollar gave back some of yesterday’s gains against the euro
USD
The dollar gave back some of yesterday’s gains against the euro, but losses were most pronounced against the New Zealand dollar. Although the RBNZ kept policy unchanged, the policy statement contained a reference to future rate hikes, which propelled NZDUSD about 80 pips higher. EURUSD traded 1.4564-1.4632, USDJPY 79.79-80.30. US Yields remain soft and equities ended the day lower across the board. The Beige Book, which covered activity through May 27, according to our economists offered a very marginally softer tone than the prior report. However, “labour market conditions continued to improve gradually,” another sign that at present growth moderation rather than outright economic contraction is the main theme for the US. Today, the ECB and BoE are due to hold policy meetings, and ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 09/06/2011
www.youtradefx.fr
DAX :
Negative sentiments continue to cloud the financial markets in general and the German index in particular which closed yesterday with falling exchange rates. However, during the day the index did manage to recover and reach the strong support level of 7000 and then shot up to levels of 7038 euro. In the short term, there is a relatively high possibility for a short wave of increases to the resistance level of 7250 euro.
On the other hand, the continued negative momentum in the financial markets could neutralize the expected correction and lead the German DAX straight towards the low support levels at around 6675 euro and possibly even lower towards the previous, significant low point of around 6500 euro. As a trigger for the continued downwards movement, we can ...
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Eyes on ECB and BoE rate decisions with "vigilance" for Trichet
The long awaited day is finally upon us dear reader, with the BoE expected to hold its silence and the ECB speculated to signal a rate hike, both under strong review and many expect a new surprise!
Investors have been focusing on the European Central Bank lately with the approaching rate decision and the easing debt woes in the last two weeks that support the euro to rise about 5.0%, nevertheless, as the decision grew closer, many have raised doubts that Trichet might indeed delay another rate hike expected for July.
With the focus on Trichet, the market is rather taking the Bank of England for granted to keep the current monetary policy unchanged as the split among members continues to be devastating for any future hopes for sterling.
The decision day will indeed start with the BoE and ...
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Sterling Volatile after Moody's Comments, Yen on the Rise
The dollar was gaining versus the majors as Europe absorbed Ben Bernanke's comments from yesterday. The Aussie dollar is the weakest against the USD with sterling not too far behind. A lack of data releases on the economic calendar today will have traders keying in on the upcoming central bank meetings, the most heavily scrutinized will be that of the ECB.
Sterling was down on the day against the dollar after the wires showed a Moody's official saying Britain's top credit rating could come under review if economic growth continues to deteriorate and if the fiscal program goals fall short. While this isn't much different from the rating agency's previous stance that was proclaimed in March, the sharp drop in cable shows how sensitive the forex trading market has become to the rating ...
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Forex - FX Traders Waiting for Tomorrows ECB Meeting
Forex News and Events:
It seems the summer FX trading season is now in full swing, with participants focusing on scheduled events in-between lots of directionless, choppy trading. Unfortunately for us, the next major event is tomorrow’s ECB rate decision and accompanying press conference. Yes, today’s German Industrial production, US beige book and a host of EU speakers will be monitored for any surprise developments (don’t expect any) but these will provide merely short-term volatility. Worries continue to linger over EU peripheral debt problems, and the US sliding further toward the economic abyss will provide pundits with plenty of fodder, but at the end of the day it’s all about interest rate differentials right now.
As expectations for Trichet to signal a rate hike builds and ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 07/06/2011
Previous session overview
The Euro advanced to a fresh monthly high of USD1.4680 on Tuesday, but the single-currency may struggle to maintain the rebound carried over from the previous month as the European Central Bank looks to carry its wait-and-see approach into the second-half of the year.
Indeed, the rebound in European retail sales paired with the larger-than-expected expansion in German factory orders helped to prop up the EURUSD.
The British Pound pared the overnight advance to USD1.6466 to hold the narrow range from the end of the previous week, and the exchange rate may continue to trade sideways in the days ahead as the Bank of England is widely expected to maintain its current policy in June.
The Canadian dollar was stronger early Tuesday, after broad weakness in the U.S. ...
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