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Expectation The Euro ContinuesTitle:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64.
USD
Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%.
GBP
Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 ...
Title:
Euro Declines on Downbeat Services Data, Eyes Still on U.S. Jobs Report
As this week comes to an end, markets are standing still awaiting the performance of the labor market in the world's largest economy for more details regarding the pace of recovery; however, markets retreated slightly against the low yielding U.S. dollar after the downbeat performance of the European services sectors which contracted significantly in April, raising fears of recession and deep contraction.
Investors are demanding more of the low yielding U.S. dollar in order to avert as much risk as possible, especially as this week comes to an end, where investors remain in the market awaiting the U.S. jobs report; however, at the same time they tend to avert risk therefore holding the U.S. dollar is the best choice, especially with speculation the jobs report will show improvement in the ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Technically, easier monetary policy conditions should be currency negative."
- Jane Foley, analyst at Rabobank
The European Central Bank held key rate at 1 per cent on Thursday and told it expects a gradual economic recovery this year.
USD
"Labor market conditions have improved in recent months."
- Federal Open Market Committee
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits tumbled to 365,000 in the week ended April 28 from 392,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"The service sector started the second quarter on a weaker note than in the first quarter, but continued to grow at a reasonable pace."
- Chris Williamson, chief economist at Markit
U.K. service sector growth slowed in April, Markit Economics data showed on ...
Title:
RBA still dovish
FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400)
WORLD
The RBA’s quarterly Statement on Monetary Policy provided further colour on the decision to cut the cash rate by 50 bp on Tuesday. End-2012 forecasts for both core inflation and GDP were modestly downgraded. This came as a minor relief to FX investors, some of whom had feared such a large rate reduction might need substantial forecast downgrades in order to justify it. AUDUSD climbed 20 pips afterwards but eventually gave back all gains. Our analysts team note though that the bank’s assessment of domestic growth now appears to be much less upbeat. They also expect next week’s budget to confirm suspicions that a very significant amount of fiscal drag is in the pipeline over the coming 12 months. Consequently they now expect another 50 bp ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index climbed on Thursday lifted as ECB decided to keep its benchmark rate unchanged and Spain successfully auctioned bonds. Index was supported with positive news from US as data showed jobless claims fell more than expected last week. BMW AG rallied 2.72% after German car maker reported its EBIT jumped 19% in 1st quarter.
USD
Timothy Geithner, US Treasury Secretary, said that China has to alter its polices tied to exports and focus on stimulating domestic consumption. Such change is vital for sustaining China's economic expansion. Currently, China is exploring the ways for new economic reforms as the country recognized the risks of overreliance on exports, Timothy Geithner added.
GBP
Average house prices in the UK declined by 0.2% last month, ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 03/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The grim unemployment figures for March will likely encourage talk about a long overdue ‘growth pact’ for the euro zone"
- Martin van Vliet, an economist at ING Group
Euro area unemployment rose to the highest level since 1997 in March and manufacturing contracted in April, adding to signs the economy is still far from out of the woods.
USD
"Employment growth is slowing"
- David Sloan, an economist at 4Cast Inc.
The number of Americans, who have found a job in the private sector fell to 119,000 in April from a revised 201,000 in March, the ADP Employer Services said on Wednesday.
GBP
" points to clear, decent construction expansion in April"
- Howard Archer, chief UK economist at IHS Global Insight
U.K. construction sector expanded slower in April, compared ...
Title:
Awful EMU PMI Data Hit The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: German yields set record lows
- Depressing April PMI's and unemployment data in the EMU set the tone for a risk off session. Core bonds surged higher and the German Bund future reached a new record high. In the US session, US equities rebounded and triggered profit taking in US treasuries. German bonds stayed near the highs however.
- Currencies: Awful EMU PMI data hit the euro
- The focus in currency trading shifted from the US to Europe. On Tuesday, EUR/USD declined due to dollar strength in the wake of the ISM release. On Wednesday, an awful set of EMU data triggered a next selling wave. EUR/GBP continues to set new lows, too. We doubt that the Draghi press conference will be able to change the course of events
The Sunrise ...
Title:
A Busy Day for Europe, Eyes on ECB Rate Decision, Spanish Auction and Firms' Results
The countdown has finally come to an end, where markets have been waiting this busy session since the start of this week, and now eyes will be focused on the European Central Bank rate decision, Draghi press conference, the Spanish bond sale and finally the financial results of several major firms across Europe.
The European common currency declined sharply yesterday after the flow of downbeat fundamentals from Europe and the world's largest economy, where the downbeat manufacturing data and unemployment from Europe triggered sharp pessimism that spread across markets, dampening demand for high yielding currencies including the euro, the sterling pound and the Australian dollar.
The euro continues the downside movement today ahead of the critical events awaited mainly from Spain, where ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 02/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German jobless rate unexpectedly climbed first time in last six months as debt turmoil curbed economic growth. The number of unemployed people increased by 19 000, reaching 2.87 million, compared to an expected drop by 10 000 people. The adjusted unemployment rate was 6.8%.
USD
Mitt Romney announced that Yuan's 23% appreciation versus U.S. Dollar in last five years is not enough and branded world's second largest economy as currency manipulator. Romney promised in his campaigns to put more pressure on China as he claimed Obama hasn't done enough to boost stronger Yuan. Economists questioned by Bloomberg expected Yuan to climb versus greenback to CHY 6.15 by the end of 2012.
GBP
FTSE 100 index traded lower on Wednesday as record high unemployment level and ...
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