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Brent hits 2012 low on Europe turmoil, weak U.S. data
Brent crude slipped below $107 per barrel on Friday to its lowest in 2012 as a worsening euro zone crisis and weak U.S. economic data raised fears of a global slowdown that could dent oil demand.
Worries about the euro zone, already roiled by Greek political chaos, mounted as Spain slipped into a recession, pushing the euro to a four-month low while sluggish data out of the United States sent worrisome signs about a still-fragile recovery at the world's largest economy and top oil consumer.
Brent crude was down 64 cents to $106.85 by 2:47 a.m. EDT after slipping to its lowest level for the year at $106.40. Front-month Brent is on track to post its largest three-week fall since May 2011.
U.S. crude was down 58 cents to $91.98, heading for its largest three-week fall since August 2011.
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Downgrades Day
Forex News and Events:
In a race for downgrades, rating agencies took action targeting the two most burdened countries in the EMU. Moody’s confirmed today a rumor about the downgrade of 16 Spanish banks after having downgraded four Spanish regions, which added more pressure to the the Spanish economy. The increase in risk was reflected by 4-year Spanish Bonos yields, higher at 5.106% against a previous 4.319%. Fitch took over the Greek front by downgrading the country to CCC, adding that all EU countries would be on “Rating Watch Negative” if no pro-bailout government were formed following the elections on June 17. What’s more, while Greek banks are struggling for liquidity from EUR 700mn withdrawals since the elections and Greek central bank governor Provopoulos expecting EUR 100mn more, ...
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Euro at four month low against dollar as crisis spins
The euro hit a four-month low against the dollar and 3-1/2 month trough versus the yen on Friday as concerns about a chaotic Greek exit from the euro zone and instability in the Spanish banking system fuelled demand for safer currencies.
Investors were reluctant to buy riskier assets after Moody's cut the credit ratings of 16 Spanish banks on Thursday. Fellow ratings agency Fitch downgraded Greece deeper into junk territory.
The euro tumbled to $1.2642, within sight its 2012 low of $1.2624. It has shed 4.1 percent against the dollar so far in May, while demand for the highly liquid dollar pushed it up 0.3 percent against a basket of currency .DXY on the day to a four-month peak of 81.758.
Against the yen, the euro fell to 100.219 yen, its lowest level since early February.
Many ...
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EU, ECB working on Greece exit contingency: report
The European Commission and the European Central Bank are working on an emergency scenario in case Greece has to leave the euro zone, EU trade commissioner Karel De Gucht said in an interview published on Friday.
The comments would appear to be the first time that an EU official has confirmed the existence of contingencies being taken for a possible Greek exit from the currency bloc. Speculation has been rife about such plans, but their existence has not been confirmed.
"A year and a half ago there may have been the danger of a domino effect," he said in an interview with the Belgium's Dutch-language newspaper De Standaard.
"But today there are, both within the European Central Bank and the European Commission, services that are working on emergency scenarios in case Greece doesn't make ...
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Gold erases early gains as euro weakens
Gold reversed course and edged down on Friday after posting its biggest daily rise in more than three months the previous session, as the euro weakened on mounting worries over the euro zone debt crisis.
The single currency dropped to a four-month low against the dollar as investors fretted about the possibility of Greece's exit from the euro zone and about Spain's banking sector after Moody's downgraded 16 Spanish banks.
Gold eased $1.45 to $1,571.80 an ounce by 0653 GMT, on course for a weekly fall of 0.6 percent - its third losing week in a row.
Gold rallied more than 2 percent on Thursday, its biggest one-day rise since January, supported by a decline in regional U.S. factory activity that fueled hope for more monetary stimulus.
U.S. gold for June delivery edged down 0.2 percent to ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Spain, once again, is where the confidence game is played"
- Sebastian Paris Horvitz, strategist at HSBC Private Bank Suisse
Spain sold the maximum targeted amount of debt, 2.5 billion euros, during yesterday’s auction with spiking borrowing costs. The interest rate of three-year bonds rose to 4.373% from April’s figure of 2.89% while interest rate of five-year bonds surged to 5.106% from 3.374 in March.
USD
"What we’re seeing in foreign-exchange markets is strong demand for the U.S. dollar"
- Steven Saywell, head of foreign-exchange strategy for Europe at BNP Paribas SA
Latest US initial unemployment claim data was released yesterday – 370 000 Americans demanded their jobless benefits last week versus a 368 000 consensus forecast. The Labor Department revised ...
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YouTradeFX Weekly Market Analysis : 05/18/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
· German PPI (MoM) (GER, 07:00 GMT)
· Italian Industrial Sales (MoM) (ITA, 09:00 GMT)
· Spanish Trade Balance (SPAIN, 11:30 GMT)
· Core CPI (MoM) (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
· ECRI Weekly Annualized (WoW) ( U.S, 15:30 GMT)
The Philly Fed Index tumbled to a negative 5.8 in May from a positive 8.5 in April and Conference Board's leading economic index edged down by 0.1 percent in April following a 0.3 percent increase in March, according to an official report released yesterday. While, the Labor Department figures said that the unemployment claims was at a seasonally adjusted level of 370,000 for the week, unchanged from the previous week's revised figure.
Greece’s credit rating was downgraded one level by Fitch ...
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EUR/USD closes in on key support at 1.2625
MORNING BRIEFING: EUR/USD closes in on key support at 1.2625
What’s new:
Asia: Risk aversion continues overnight in Asia on back of global concerns. EUR/JPY approaching 100 and MSCI Asia Pacific has erased its 2012 gains.
United States: Philly Fed showed a massive negative surprise, increasing speculation for QE. USD continues to be bid. EUR/USD closing in on key support. S&P 500 in 4-month lows.
Europe: Indices all in negative as EU debt crisis and Spanish rates escalates. Greece downgraded by Fitch and Moody’s downgraded 16 Spanish banks.
Comments:
The Euro continued on the offer for the ninth day in a row against the USD as the worries of a Greek exit from the Euro zone is increasing. Since the beginning of May, the EUR/USD has fallen more than 4% and should the trend continue, we ...
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EUR Avoids New 4-Month Low
While the euro remained bearish against its main currency rivals throughout yesterday's trading session, it avoided falling to a new four-month low against the US dollar. The marketplace was unusually calm, as a bank holiday in Europe resulted in limited movements among the most traded currency pairs. As we close out the week, traders will want to note that another slow news day may result in low liquidity in the marketplace. Typically, low liquidity situations can result in exaggerated movements among currency pairs and commodities for seemingly no reason. Any mention of additional euro-zone worries may result in a significant drop for the euro.
Economic News
USD - Manufacturing Data Causes USD to Tumble
The US dollar tumbled vs. the Japanese yen during the afternoon session yesterday, ...
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