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EurozoneTitle:
Weak US Jobs Data, Fresh Greece Concerns
U.S. Dollar Trading (USD) the USD was strong against all major except the other safe haven Yen with stock markets crashing on Friday and then again on Monday morning Asia. The main concern on Friday was weaker than expected NonFarm Payrolls from the US in April at +115k vs. 173k forecast. Looking ahead, March Consumer Credit forecast at 9.5bn vs. 8.73bn previously.
The Euro (EUR) the EUR/USD was under pressure Asia breaking below 1.3000 and then falling to 1.2960 as French and Greece elections over the weekend created fresh risks to the Eurozone. The new French President has stated he wants to focus on growth and not austerity going forward. The Greece elections resulted in anti EU politicians gaining favor with their platform of anti-bailout and austerity measures. The Sterling (GBP) the ...
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Forex Exchange Morning Report
Market wrap
A disappointing US payrolls report hurt sentiment, pushing equities, risky currencies, commodities and interest rates lower. Only 115,000 jobs were added in April versus 160,000 expected. There were, however, positive back revisions and the unemployment rate fell from 8.2% to 8.1%, initially causing some confusion in markets before judgement was passed it was a weak outcome. Also reported was lower Eurozone manufacturing activity, adding to the negative market tone. The S&P500 closed down 1.6% and the CRB commodities index fell 1.4%. US 10yr treasury yields closed 5bp lower at 1.88%, earlier making a 3 Feb low at 1.87%. Australian 3yr bond yields fell 6bp. A few hours ago, results from European elections were announced. France has a new (socialist) president, and Greece's two ...
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Gloom builds for euro zone, United States
(Reuters) - The euro zone economy worsened markedly last month and U.S. employers cut back on hiring, according to two reports on Friday that dampened hopes for gradual recovery on either side of the Atlantic.
In Europe, the purchasing managers indexes (PMIs), which primarily cover services, suggested a recession across the continent's currency union could now extend to mid-year and be deeper than previously thought.
The gloomy surveys clashed with the picture painted by European Central Bank President Mario Draghi, who on Thursday spoke of a gradual recovery taking place in the euro zone during the course of the year - although he did speak about risks.
In the United States, a government report showed employers added a disappointing 115,000 workers to payrolls last month and, ...
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Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 04/05/2012
U.S. Review
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
- The underlying tone of the recent economic reports remains consistent with modest economic growth. Consumer spending ended the first quarter on a solid note and spending is now on track to grow at a 2 percent pace in the second quarter.
- Reports from the regional manufacturing surveys showed some weakness but the National ISM report came in stronger than expected. The nonmanufacturing survey, however, came in below expectations.
- Nonfarm employment rose by 115,000 jobs in April and the unemployment rate fell 0.1 percent to 8.1 percent.
Modest Growth on a Broadening Base
This week's ISM report came in better than expected, rising 1.4 points to 54.8 in April, which greatly relieves fears built up from the weaker factory orders ...
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The Weekly Bottom Line : 04/05/2012
The Weekly Bottom Line
HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK
United States
- U.S. job creation may have weakened in the last few months, but the grounds for sustaining stronger employment growth are more fertile now than have been since the economic recovery began. Europe's labor market, by contrast, is likely to deteriorate further before it gets better.
- Europe's (nonfinancial) corporate sector is highly leveraged. As balance sheet adjustments are made, Europe risks further decreases in investment, higher layoffs, and lower economic growth. These effects are compounded by deleveraging in the public sector.
- U.S. corporations, by contrast, are more profitable and liquid than they have ever been. At some point some of these funds will be unleashed towards new investment, creating a positive ...
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When Will Volatility Pick Up
The Week Ahead
Highlights
When will volatility pick up
Digesting payrolls
Will there be more QE for the UK?
Data Watch
When will volatility pick up?
Volatility in US Treasuries is at its lowest level since 2007, so too is volatility in the FX options market for short-term EURUSD products and the Vix has fallen sharply since peaking in autumn 2011. Yet Europe's sovereign stresses remain as strong as ever, Spain and Italy are struggling to sell their sovereign debt to anyone bar their domestic banking sectors and election risks are enormous as Greece and France go to the polls on Sunday.
So why is volatility so low? The answer lies with central banks and fairly tight FX ranges. When central banks come in and pledge that interest rates will remain extremely low until 2014, ...
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Oil dives three percent, set for biggest 3-day rout since August
(Reuters) - Oil plunged more than 3 percent on Friday, with U.S. crude below $100 a barrel for the first time since February, as an abrupt slow-down in U.S. hiring soured economic sentiment weighed and technical triggers intensified selling.
Brent's nearly $4-a-barrel slide took three-day losses to more than 6 percent, the deepest sell-off since August, rattling traders who had been lulled by low volatility this year.
While a downbeat U.S. jobs report weighed, traders said a combination of less definitive factors -- from confusion over margin changes to the breach of Brent's 200-day moving average -- had compounded selling, reminding some dealers of the abrupt $10 collapse in prices on May 5 last year.
"We have broken through key technical levels here after a disappointing employment ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
German DAX index edged lower on Friday as investors awaited for US jobs data amid dropping commodity prices. Moreover European investors stayed cautious ahead of elections in Germany, Italy, France and Greece this weekend. At the moment of writing DAX index is 0.53% or 36.65 points down at 6,657.64.
USD
Crude oil futures moved higher during Asian session on Friday amid broadly weaker US Dollar. The greenback's index that measures its performance against six main currencies declined by 0.05% to 79.24 US Dollars. Meanwhile, light, sweet crude oil futures for delivery in June traded at 102.67 Us Dollars per barrel on the New York Mercantile Exchange, advancing by 0.13%.
GBP
Royal Bank of Scotland Group said on Friday its loss for the first three months of 2012 ...
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Japanese Yen Mixed in Forex Trading
Japanese yen is mixed in forex trading today as traders look for direction. Earlier, yen was higher against its counterparts, but now the currency seems to be pulling back — at least against the US dollar and the Great Britain pound. Yen still remains slightly higher than the euro.
The financial markets continue to fluctuate between confidence and uncertainty. With some signs of economic improvement, there is a measure of confidence. On the other hand, though, improvements aren’t as solid as expected, and there are a number of uncertainties ahead. Earlier, yen was higher across the board, but now the dollar and the pound of erased their losses.
Euro, however, is still struggling against the yen. With elections coming up in France and Greece this weekend, there is a lot of uncertainty ...
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