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EurozoneTitle:
Weekly Focus: The Greek Tragedy Continues
Weekly Focus: The Greek Tragedy Continues
■Government formation in Greece will continue to attract attention. Also keep an eye on the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings next week.
■Global PMI releases will be important given the current mixed signals on the state of global growth. This includes the first-ever release of the US Markit flash PMI.
■US retail sales are likely to post anaemic growth as lower gasoline prices and sluggish same-store sales are dragging down sales growth.
■GDP data is likely to show global growth accelerating in Q1. We expect strong numbers for Japan and Norway, while euro area growth is likely to remain negative.
■We expect the People's Bank of China to deliver a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement within the coming two weeks.
■In ...
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Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 04/11/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks declined as company earnings missed estimates, talks on forming a Greek government entered a fifth day and JPMorgan Chase & Co. posted a $2 billion trading loss. Asian shares and U.S. futures fell.
USD
Wholesale prices in the U.S. fell in April for the first time in four months, led by a decline in fuel costs that signals inflation may cool. The producer price index dropped 0.2 percent after no change in March, Labor Department figures showed today in Washington.
GBP
Britons turned gloomier last month as a slump in construction pointed to an even deeper recession and producers ramped up prices, highlighting the long and difficult road back to economic health.
CHF
Swiss stocks fell for the seventh day, heading for the biggest weekly ...
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Crude drops on China’s downbeat data and worries over Europe
As demand on oil is seen dropping since the global recovery is at risk amid the uncertainties over Europe and China’s slowing economy, crude resumed its drop heading for a second weekly decline.
Risk appetite remained subdued on Friday as China’s moderating inflation signaled slower consumption while Greece’s political turmoil fuel concerns over Europe’s growth, keeping the dollar index above the 80.20 today.
Crude fell today from the highest $96.75 to the lowest $95.60, and as of this writing is trading around the $96.10 as the Chinese data show the economy is weaker than previously thought. Brent dropped 0.85% trading around $111.77.
In China, consumer prices rose slower than expected, indicating that domestic consumption is falling in the world’s second oil consumer, while retail ...
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Euro Falls as Greece Continues to Wrangle
Greek political leaders continue to wrangle in an effort to form a government, and that is weighing on the euro, especially against the US dollar. Yesterday, the euro showed some spunk, and riskier assets received a bit of a boost. Today, though, risk aversion is back in full force over Greece, and over the latest news from JP Morgan Chase.
In Greece, the political wrangling continues. Political leaders differ on what they think will happen, with some insisting that a government can be formed, while others say that it’s likely that Greek citizens will be headed back to the polls. The uncertainty about what is happening in Greece — and whether or not the eurozone will be able to overcome its woes — once again weighs on the euro.
Also contributing to a climate of risk aversion today is the ...
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Germany To The Rescue?
This is the fifth day without a firm government in place for Greece; if a coalition is not found soon then we could be heading back to the polls, which open up the possibility of a prolonged period of Greek political instability. There was some hope this morning of the Conservatives forming a coalition with the Socialists and other moderate pro-bailout parties that would have a mandate to govern until 2014. This helped to lift the euro from its daily lows; however for a sustained rally in risk we need to get a firm commitment that a 'moderate' pro-European government will take the reins of power in Athens. Unless that happens then the markets are likely to remain jittery.
Mixed signals
The markets are particularly cloudy today. Some bullish reversal patterns that formed yesterday were ...
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YouTradeFX Daily Market Analysis : 11/05/2012
Fundamental News
Today’s highlights:
- PPI Input (MoM) (GB, 09:30 GMT)
- Core PPI (YoY) (U.S, 13:30 GMT)
- Unemployment Rate (CAD, 13:30 GMT)
- Michigan Consumer Sentiment (U.S. 14:55 GMT)
The U.S. Department of Labor revealed that initial jobless claims came in at 367,000 for the week ended May 5. This was down 1,000 from the previous week's revised figure of 368,000. The Commerce Department released a report on Thursday showing that the U.S. trade deficit widened to $51.8 billion in March from a revised $45.4 billion in February.
Inflation in China eased in April, fueling expectations that the People's Bank of China may ease policy further amid slowing economic activity. The National Bureau of Statistics reported Friday that inflation eased to 3.4 percent in April from 3. ...
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Asian stocks drop on JP Morgan, Greece and China’s slower inflation
Asian stocks are heading towards their steepest weekly fall since November as China’s moderating inflation signaled slower consumption while Greece’s political turmoil fuel concerns over Europe’s growth, keeping risk appetite subdued.
The MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 0.7% at 12:53 in Tokyo, as Europe’s debt crisis seem to be deepening with the political deadlock in Greece, which puts the eurozone unity at risk especially after the political changes seen in France.
Greek Socialist leader Evangelos Venizelos will meet again with conservative leaders later today in an attempt to form a coalition government, while Spain is expected to announce further measures aimed to reform its banks
Moreover, only one day after China’s slowing growth was confirmed due to the steep drop in exports, ...
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Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 11/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The overall manufacturing trend remains weak."
- Pierre-Olivier Beffy, chief economist at Exane BNP Paribas
French industrial production fell in March, said the national statistics office Insee on Thursday. Output contracted 0.9 per cent from February, when it gained 0.2 per cent.
USD
"It’s hard to get nervous that imports are rising."
- Dean Maki, chief U.S. economist at Barclays Capital Inc.
The number of Americans claiming for unemployment benefits fell to 367,000 in the week ended May 5 from 368,000 the week before, said the Department of Labor on Thursday.
GBP
"Our forecast is that they are done with QE, but you can’t rule out more later this year."
- Ross Walker, an economist at Royal Bank of Scotland Group Plc
The Bank of England kept rates on hold ...
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Euro Finds Support in Forex Trading
Euro is finding some support in Forex trading today, heading a little bit higher. Even though there are still concerns about what is happening in Europe, traders are looking for a little bit of respite from the risk aversion and gloom. So, the euro is a little bit higher right now, and other high beta currencies are seeing some success as well.
Euro is slightly higher against the US dollar right now. Spain has all but nationalized its fourth-largest bank, and is taking aggressive steps to shore up its financial sector. While this may not solve Spain’s problems, it’s at least an attempt, and one that many are viewing favorably. Additionally, UK pound, another high beta currency, is seeing success against the US dollar. The Bank of England is keeping quantitative easing on hold, and that ...
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