Eurozone Activity Indicators

U.S. Review To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question - Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high. - Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations. To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...

The Chilean peso rose even after Chile’s central bank refrained from increasing interest rates. Good prospects for the nation’s economy and possibility of an interest rate hike in the future may be responsible for the currency’s gains. The Central Bank of Chile decided to maintain its main interest rate at 5 percent. Analysts had different view on future monetary policy of the central bank. Some said that the bank would boost the rate in the second half of this year. Such outlook is justified by positive fundamentals in Chile. Chile’s central bank said in its statement that “domestically, economic activity grew faster in the first quarter than had been projected in the last Monetary Policy Report”. Others, though, insist that the bank would not raise borrowing costs in the foreseeable ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible. USD As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99. GBP Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Investors battered European stocks, dumped the bonds of Spain and Italy, and bid the euro down against the dollar Monday after the collapse of weekend coalition talks in Greece edged that country closer to an exit from the euro zone. USD Retail sales in the U.S. rose in April at the slowest pace of the year, showing unseasonably mild weather and pre-Easter shopping may have pulled consumers to stores the prior month. GBP Governor Mervyn King looks set to leave the door open to more support for the struggling economy when he presents the Bank of England's new economic outlook on Wednesday, which is likely to show a tricky mix of lower growth and higher inflation ahead. CHF Swiss stocks lost ground on Monday on concern Greece will exit the Eurozone. ...

Weekly Focus: The Greek Tragedy Continues ■Government formation in Greece will continue to attract attention. Also keep an eye on the Eurogroup and Ecofin meetings next week. ■Global PMI releases will be important given the current mixed signals on the state of global growth. This includes the first-ever release of the US Markit flash PMI. ■US retail sales are likely to post anaemic growth as lower gasoline prices and sluggish same-store sales are dragging down sales growth. ■GDP data is likely to show global growth accelerating in Q1. We expect strong numbers for Japan and Norway, while euro area growth is likely to remain negative. ■We expect the People's Bank of China to deliver a 50bp cut in the reserve requirement within the coming two weeks. ■In ...

The Weekly Bottom Line HIGHLIGHTS OF THE WEEK United States - U.S. job creation may have weakened in the last few months, but the grounds for sustaining stronger employment growth are more fertile now than have been since the economic recovery began. Europe's labor market, by contrast, is likely to deteriorate further before it gets better. - Europe's (nonfinancial) corporate sector is highly leveraged. As balance sheet adjustments are made, Europe risks further decreases in investment, higher layoffs, and lower economic growth. These effects are compounded by deleveraging in the public sector. - U.S. corporations, by contrast, are more profitable and liquid than they have ever been. At some point some of these funds will be unleashed towards new investment, creating a positive ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review First-Quarter GDP Growth Slows The U.S. economy grew at a 2.2 percent annual rate in the first quarter, somewhat slower than the consensus had expected. Consumption remained the primary driver of growth as business spending slowed and the government sector continued to scale back spending. In our U.S. review section this week, we discuss the GDP report in the context of the big miss in durables and consider what it means for business spending going forward. We also look at a very small change in the Fed statement this week that reflects an improving view on the troubled housing sector. Business Spending Poised for a Slowdown? Durable goods orders for March were ugly. The 4.2 percent drop was the largest decline since the U.S. ...

Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis EUR Spain faced increasing borrowing costs during successful sale of bonds with two and ten-year maturity. The country's Treasury sold 1,116 billion Euros of two-year bonds at yield of 3.463% and 1,425 billion Euros in ten-year bonds with yield of 5.743%. Demand for Spain's debt was strong as bids surpassed demand 3.3 times. USD Stock index futures indicated a lower opening on today’s USA session on the EU concerns. Additionally, news from Wal-mart on a possible bribery case had negative influence on stock indices. GBP According to experts from zifx.com, following an extensive rally of GBP/USD, the currency pair is presently overgoing a bearish correction. While the initial support and resistance levels are situated at 1.6037 and 1.6154, respectively, ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 30/03/2012 U.S. Review Mixed Signals Housing data released this week were a bit disappointing but also offered some signs of optimism. Pending home sales fell in February but remained near a one-year high. The decline in the S&P Case-Shiller Home Price Index in January was the smallest since July, although the index did reach a new cyclical low. Personal spending rose in February by the most since July, as consumers dipped into savings to spend more on services. However, consumer confidence slipped in March due to a decline in the expectations index amid rising gas prices, although purchase plans improved. Mixed Signals Housing data released this week were slightly disappointing but also provided some signs of optimism. Pending home ...