Europe Ahead Papademos

Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months Economic Data (RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior (DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e (DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e (CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior (FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior (FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows - Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today. - Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support - On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation. The Sunrise Headlines - In the final hour of trading, US ...

We have heard conflicting information about Greece over the last 24 hours: first we heard that Greece was making plans to leave the Eurozone from former Prime Minister Papademos, which was denied. Then this morning reports from a German newspaper suggested that the ECB had set up a task force (tucked away in a bunker) working on the potential fallout from a Greek exit. It's likely that we will get these conflicting headlines between now and the end of the EU summit, which starts this evening at 1800 BST. The markets' seemed to like the idea of an Avengers - style ECB working to combat the negative effects if Athens goes to the wall, and the euro bounced from its lowest level since 2010 earlier. But the real test will be the outcome of today's summit. So what should we expect and, ...

Sunrise Market Commentary - Fixed Income: Profit taking continued, but now concluded? - The profit taking on global core bond markets continued in the run-up to tonight's informal EU-Summit. Spanish and Italian spreads decreased significantly but yields remain at elevated levels. Today, the eco calendar is again thin and trading will again be driven by sentiment. - Currencies: Euro rebound short-lived On - Tuesday, the euro came again under pressure even as the global context was not that negative. Sentiment on risk was constructive and intra-EMU spreads narrowed, but all this didn't prevent investors to use any upticks in the single currency to further reduce exposure. The key 1.2642/24 support is again coming within reach. The Sunrise Headlines - In the final hour of ...

(Reuters) - The euro hit a 21-month low against the dollar on Wednesday ahead of an EU meeting later, with investors doubtful that leaders would come up with measures to stem the euro zone debt crisis. An informal EU summit is expected to discuss growth-boosting measures but was not expected to produce any plan that would restore optimism among investors, especially given Germany remains strongly opposed to joint euro bonds. The euro fell to $1.2615, dropping below the 2012 low of $1.2624 set in January to mark its lowest since August 2010. Fears that Greece may have to leave the euro grew after Dow Jones earlier quoted former prime minister Lucas Papademos as saying Greece had no choice but to stick with a painful austerity program or face a damaging exit from the euro zone. However, ...

Fundamental News Today’s highlights: BoJ Press Conference (JAP, Tentative) Retail Sales (MoM) + MPC Meeting Minutes (GB, 09.30 GMT) Industrial New Orders (MoM) (EUR, Tentative) CBI Industrial Trends Orders (GB, 11:00 GMT) Core Retail Sales (MoM) (CAD, 13:30 GMT) New Home Sales (U.S., 15:00 GMT) The National Association of Realtors released a report on Tuesday showing a rebound in U.S. existing home sales in the month of April following a decrease in the previous month, sales rose by less than economists had anticipated. NAR said existing home sales rose 3.4 percent to an annual rate of 4.62 million in April from a downwardly revised 4.47 million in March. Japan’s exports increased by a less-than- estimated 7.9 percent in April from a year earlier, underscoring ...

Ahead of a meeting of European leaders, the MSCI Asia Pacific Index dropped 1.5% at 12:31 in Tokyo after investors lost their appetite for risk after they were spooked by the mounting worries over Greece exiting the eurozone, while BoJ held its monetary policy unchanged although growth is slowing. Greece’s former Prime Minister Lucas Papademos said yesterday that while it is unlikely that the nation will leave the eurozone, the risks are still high. And if this would prove to be the case, other countries may follow, warned Jin Liqun, chairman of China Investment Corp. Meanwhile, one day after Fitch cut the Japan’s rating by one notch to A-plus from AA with negative outlook, citing “high and rising public debt” burden, Japan showed a slowdown in its exports during April, adding to ...

(Reuters) - The euro slumped 1 percent against the U.S. dollar on Tuesday, ahead of an informal meeting of European leaders, on growing fears of a Greek exit from the euro zone. Dow Jones quoted former Greek prime minister Lucas Papademos as saying that Greeks had no choice but to stick with a painful austerity program or face a damaging exit from the euro zone, a risk he said was unlikely to materialize but that was real. He also told the news agency that some European states and institutions were considering contingency plans for any eventuality. "Sentiment is heavily against the euro," said Joseph Trevisani, chief market strategist at Worldwide Markets, Woodcliff Lake in New Jersey. "Any negative comment from former or current Greek officials sends the euro plummeting. There were ...

Copper fell to a two-week low on Tuesday, pressured by a weak euro following political uncertainty in Greece which reignited fears about the euro zone debt crisis and raised worries about the demand outlook for industrial metals. Investors are also cautious ahead of China economic data due this week, including numbers on import growth, inflation and bank lending. Three-month copper on the London Metal Exchange (LME) fell to $8,059.50 a metric ton (1.1023 tons) at 1458 GMT, down 1.4 percent from Friday's close of $8,175 a metric ton. The exchange was closed on Monday for a bank holiday. The metal used in power and construction earlier fell to its lowest level since April 24 at $8,057 a metric ton. The euro extended losses against the dollar as Leftist Alexis Tsipras began efforts to ...