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Euro Shows DeclineTitle:
EUR/USD Cedes The 1.2624 Support
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Risk off pushes German bond yields to new lows
- Risk off sentiment pushed core bonds higher and non-core bond yield spreads re-widened substantially. The Summit didn't bring new information, but another hole found in Spain's regions' budgets might get attention today.
- Currencies EUR/USD cedes the 1.2624 support
- On Wednesday, the EMU debt crisis was again omnipresent. Markets feared that the EU leaders wouldn't be able to take decisive action to address the debt crisis. Extreme risk aversion pushed EUR/USD to a new low for 2012. The losses of EUR/GBP were more contained, as poor UK retail sales and rather soft BoE minutes kept the door open for more policy stimulation.
The Sunrise Headlines
- In the final hour of trading, US ...
Title:
Greek Debt Crisis: Answers to Frequently Asked Questions
Highlights
- An acceleration in deposit withdrawals, combined with the prospect of an anti-austerity party winning the next election, has brought to the fore concerns about a potential Greek exit from the euro zone.
- Our base case assumption is that under the most likely scenario, the Greek election will lead to a government that sticks to an EU/IMF program, even if the terms are renegotiated.
- However, we do believe that Greece needs a further restructuring of its debt and we do think the country will ultimately exit the euro - we're just not convinced that Europe is ready for this to happen at the moment.
- If an accident does occur and Greece does leave the euro in the near term, it would have global financial ramifications that could range from severe to catastrophic. ...
Title:
Dollar Gains on Negative Risk Sentiment & Good US Fundamentals
The US dollar advanced today on fears of the worsening crisis in Europe that drove investors to safer currencies and the dollar in particular as the US economy continue to show signs of recovery.
Traders are worried by decline of Italy’s economy and speculation that Spain may be the next country to ask for a bailout. There was no major news from Europe recently, and that is not good as without a significant positive event the situation in the eurozone would worsen, not improve. It is not surprising that demand for safe currencies was strong. The greenback even managed to outperform the yen, another currency considered to be a safe haven, but many analysts believe that the US currency would not gain on Japan’s one for long.
Fundamentals in the United States are not perfect, but definitely ...
Title:
European Market Update : 21/05/2012
Spain's banking sector said to be calling on market regulator for renewed ban on short-selling
Economic Data
(EU) ECB: €809M borrowed in overnight loan facility €839M prior; €762.4B parked in deposit facility v €785.1B prior
(JP) Japan Apr Nationwide Dept. Sales Y/Y: 1.3% v 14.1% prior; Tokyo Dept. Store Sales Y/Y: 6.7% v 26.7% prior
(IN) India Apr CPI Y/Y: 10.4% v 9.4% prior
(DE) Germany Apr Producer Prices M/M: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Y/Y: 2.4% v 2.5%e
(HU) Hungary Mar Avg Gross Wages Y/Y: 2.7% v 6.5%e v 6.9% prior
(RU) Russia Narrow Money Supply w/e May 14th (RUB): 6.93T v 6.88T prior
(ES) Spain Central Bank (BOS): Mar Bad Loan Ratio at 8.37% v 8.16% prior; - Lending -3.1% y/ym, Deposits -4.2% y/y
(IT) Italy Mar Industrial Orders M/M: 3.5% v 1.0%e; Y/Y: -14.3% v -13.2% prior
(IT) Italy ...
Title:
Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 19/05/2012
U.S. Review
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
- Some market participants are beginning to speculate about another round of quantitative easing. Although recent growth indicators have not been particularly stellar, the economy is still growing. Moreover, core CPI inflation in the neighborhood of 2 percent means that the threshold for more QE is relatively high.
- Overall, indicators were positive during the week. Housing starts increased by 2.6 percent in April, the Empire Manufacturing index improved to 17.09 in May from a 6.56 print in April and retail sales printed a 0.1 percent increase in April, in line with expectations.
To QE3 or Not To QE3: That is the Question
QE3 seems to have more lives that a cat; it comes back into the forefront of the U.S. economy discussion ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/18/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Moody's reduced credit rating of 16 Span's banks, citing a rise in bad debts in the country's financial sector and overall deterioration of the economic environment. The decision came after shares of Bankia lost another 14%. The largest banks such as Banco Santander and BBVA were downgraded while ten out of 17 banks were put on negative watch, implying that further credit rating cuts are possible.
USD
As the U.S. dollar gets stronger, investors are concerned that aggravating debt crisis in Europe will reduce demand for oil. Therefore, oil shows decline for a third week. Crude oil lost 25 cents yesterday and reached the 6-month low of $92.56. Brent oil for July delivery slid 0.5 percent to finish at $106.99.
GBP
Following a downgrade of 16 Spanish banks, ...
Title:
Dukascopy Morning Forex Overview : 05/16/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"Germany is holding up the rest of the euro zone”"
- Nick Kounis, head of macroeconomic research at ABN Amro
Germany helped the Eurozone avoid its second recession in three years. Overall gross domestic product stagnated in the first three months of 2012, compared to the previous quarter, Eurostat data showed on Tuesday.
USD
"There’s a lot of slack in the economy"
- Scott Brown, chief economist at Raymond James & Associates Inc.
Inflation in the U.S. stagnated in April, restrained by a decline in energy costs. The core consumer price index, which excludes food and energy costs, rose 0.2 per cent, showed Bureau of Labor Statistics data on Tuesday.
GBP
"March's UK trade figures showed a bit of an improvement, although the external sector still looks likely to ...
Title:
Speculation On Grexit Continues To Hammer The Euro
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Fixed Income: Global core bonds profit from euro debt crisis
- Concerns about Greece and Spain underpinned the ongoing rally of global core bonds. The German 10-year yield fell below 1.50%. Intra-EMU yield spreads versus Germany widened substantially. Today, the eco calendar is enticing. If no euro debt crisis news acts as a circuit breaker, the eco data may for once drive the price action.
- Currencies: Speculation on Grexit continues to hammer the euro.
- At the start of the new trading week, the Greek crisis remained the key factor for currency trading. With no visibility on the outcome of the EMU crisis, the easiest way for the euro is south. EUR/USD set a new correction low. EUR/GBP dropped below the 0.8000. This morning, strong German ...
Title:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 05/14/2012
Dukascopy Fundamental Analysis
EUR
Industrial production in the 17 countries that use the euro fell unexpectedly in March, leaving little doubt the region contracted for a second straight quarter in the first three months of the year and returned to recession, data by Eurostat showed Monday.
USD
Stocks fell, commodities declined to their cheapest level this year and the euro weakened to a three- month low on concern that Greece will exit the single European currency and after German Chancellor Angela Merkel’s party lost a state election.
GBP
The government, and many economists, say the U.K.'s austerity plan has succeeded in reassuring financial markets that the government is focused on wrestling down the country's debt, which had ballooned to the highest levels since World War II. As a ...
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