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Euro After A Greek OfficialTitle:
Dukascopy Afternoon Forex Overview : 24/05/2012
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
European stocks returned to growth, despite services and manufacturing purchasing managers indices across Europe and German business confidence shrank more than expected. The Stoxx Europe 600 Index added 1.0 percent to 241.81. Cable & Wireless Communications Plc soared 19 percent. Sonova Holding AG gained 2.5 percent. Bayer AG declined 1.1 percent. U.S. futures and Asian stock little changed. S&P 500 futures gained 0.3 percent, MSCI Asia Pacific index added 0.1 percent.
USD
The US Dollar followed bullish trend on Thursday as Germany disapproves issuance of Eurobonds that may help to ease Greek debt burden. Traders are also cautions ahead of Euro Zone's manufacturing data release due later today. The US Dollar index, which tracks the greenback's performance ...
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Oil climbs above $106 as Iran talks stall
(Reuters) - Brent crude oil rose above $106 a barrel on Thursday as reports of a hiccup in talks with Iran over its nuclear program balanced weak economic data from China and Europe.
Iran accused world powers on Thursday of creating "a difficult atmosphere" that hindered negotiations on its atomic energy program, signaling a snag in diplomacy to defuse fears of an Iranian attempt to develop nuclear bombs.
Brent futures rose 90 cents to trade at $106.46 by 1336 GMT after earlier touching a high of $106.90 before weak Chinese and European economic data sparked a bout of selling.
U.S. crude for July rose $1.44 to a high of $91.34 after settling at $89.90 a barrel on Wednesday, its lowest close for front-month U.S. crude since October 21.
Investors are worried that failure to agree a deal ...
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Weaker euro zone economy sends dollar higher
(Reuters) - The U.S. dollar climbed to a 20-month high and safe-haven German bonds set record low yields, after data showed Europe's economic woes intensifying as business confidence is undercut by talk of a Greek exit and slow progress in tackling the debt crisis.
Private-sector factory activity in China also faltered in May as demand for exports fell, in a worrying sign the impact of the euro zone crisis could be undermining the global economic recovery. Europe is China's largest export market.
But U.S. stock index futures have edged higher as investors remain hopeful that pending data on durable goods orders and initial jobless claims will show the world's largest economy is staying on track for recovery.
The slowdown in economic activity in Europe's powerhouse Germany sent the euro ...
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European Market Update : 24/05/2012
Major European PMI Manufacturing data misses expectations; German IFO Business Confidence falls for the first time in 7 months
Economic Data
(RU) Russia Gold & Forex Reserve w/e May 18th: $514.3B v $518.8B prior
(DE) Germany Q1 Final GDP Q/Q: 0.5% v 0.5%e; Y/Y: 1.7% v 1.7%e; GDP WDA Y/Y: 1.2% v 1.2%e
(DE) Germany Q1 Private Consumption: 0.4% v 0.2%e; Government Spending: 0.2% v 0.3%e; Domestic Demand: -0.3% v 0.0%e; Capital Investment: -1.1% v -0.3%e; Construction Investment: -1.3% v -0.4%e; Exports: 1.7% v 0.9%e; Imports: 0.0% v 0.3%e
(CH) Swiss Apr Trade Balance (CHG): 1.3B v 1.9Be; Real Exports M/M: -0.9% v +0.2%e; Real Imports M/M: 2.6% v 5.9% prior
(FI) Finland Apr PPI M/M: -0.1% v +0.4% prior; Y/Y: 1.4% v 1.4% prior
(FI) Finland Apr Preliminary Retail Sales Volume Y/Y: -2.0% v ...
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Markets vs. Technocrats
Forex News and Events:
Over the past few days, the media has been relaying comments suggesting leaders are backing the stay of Greece in the EMU. For starters the G8 stressed the importance for Greece to remain in the monetary union regardless of the discord over how to best tackle the crisis. During an interview with CNBC on Tuesday, former Greek PM insisted that an exit would yield “catastrophic” consequences for the country itself and “far reaching” implications for the EU. During yesterday’s European session however, EU officials stated they have agreed over a teleconference call with Eurogroup Work Group (EWG) that each nation in the EMU must prepare an individual contingency plan in case of an exit. The EUR sank against the USD to its lowest level since July 2010 at 1.2544, down 5. ...
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Shares, euro fall as Europe's economy worsens
(Reuters) - The euro hit a fresh 22-month low and European shares gave up early gains on Thursday after data showed Europe's economic slump has worsened, as talk of a Greek exit and a lack of progress in tackling the debt crisis hits business confidence.
Germany's manufacturing sector shrank at the fastest rate in three years in May, the Markit manufacturing Purchasing Managers Index (PMI) showed, as both exports and new orders coming into factories declined.
"May's drop in manufacturing production was the steepest in nearly three years and the current period of falling new orders now almost matches the length, though not the depth, of the contraction in 2008/09," Tim Moore, senior economist at Markit, said.
German business sentiment has also dropped for the first time in seven months, ...
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Asia Session: Policy Easing From Beijing May Not Save China If Greece Exits The Euro
Despite another below 50 print for Chinese flash manufacturing PMI and the release of NZ’s annual budget, market action was largely subdued during the session following the sell-off in the euro overnight which pushed it below 1.2600 against the dollar. The budget out of NZ was largely a non-event as it didn’t differ from market expectations, but the flash PMI figure out of China is somewhat worrying.
HSBC’s flash manufacturing PMI figure printed at 48.7 for May, modestly down from the prior 49.3. Thus, HSBC believes manufacturing in China may contract for the seventh straight month in row, which, if turn, raises concerns about the overall health of the Chinese economy.
Yet, we did not see commodities currencies and equities sink significantly after the data, but this may be because the ...
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Asian Market Update : 24/05/2012
EU leaders call on Greece to work harder, June meeting to provide more details on measures; China flash PMI contracts again Thu, 24 May 2012 1:41 AM EST
Economic Data
(CN) CHINA MAY HSBC FLASH MANUFACTURING PMI: 48.7 V 49.3 PRIOR FINAL (7th consecutive contraction)
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND APR TRADE BALANCE (NZ$): 355M V 400ME (11-month high); TRADE BALANCE YTD: -541M V -651ME
(NZ) NEW ZEALAND ANNUAL BUDGET RELEASE: AFFIRMS TARGET OF RETURNING BUDGET TO SURPLUS IN 2015
(AU) AUSTRALIA Q1 CBAHIA HOUSE AFFORDABILITY: 61.8 V 58.5 PRIOR
(JP) JAPAN BOJ MONTHLY ECONOMIC REPORT: Increasingly Evident Japan Economy Is Shifting To Pickup
(KR) SOUTH KOREA Q1 HOUSEHOLD CREDIT Y/Y: +7.0% V 7.8% PRIOR (lowest level since Sept 2009)
(VN) Vietnam May CPI m/m: 0.2% v 0.1% prior; y/y: 8.3% v 8.9%e
(JP) ...
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Copper rises from 4-1/2 month low, EU crisis weighs
(Reuters) - London copper rose 0.8 percent on Thursday as the market took a breather after sinking to a 4-1/2 month low in the previous session on risk aversion triggered by worries over Greece's possible exit from the euro zone.
Copper, which has lost almost 10 percent this month, may find support from positive U.S. housing data, although gains were capped as the market remains vulnerable to the implications for the global economy after European leaders were unable to deliver meaningful measures to resolve the region's debt crisis.
"Prices of copper have come off quite heavily in recent weeks so there might be some sense that maybe it was an overreaction," said Alexandra Knight, an economist with National Australia Bank. "From my perspective Greece will ultimately stay in the euro zone ...
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