Eur/gbp Pair On February
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Global bonds finally react on weaker US data
It took some time, but finally bonds reacted positively to another batch of weaker US data. That may have ended the downward correction that started after the US May payrolls release. However, there is as of yet no reason to become overly bullish for bonds.
Currencies: Dollar ignores poor US eco data
The recent slide of EUR/USD slowed, but the pair failed to profit from a series of poor US eco data. Fed speakers, including governor Williams, continue the debate on the tapering of asset purchases. These expectation are putting a strong floor under the dollar. The trade-weighted dollar is still near the key 84.10 level
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities suffered first losses this week with S&P 0.5% lower. Whereas ...
Title:
Euro Drifting Further South
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Core EMU bonds stabilize as eco data disappoint
Following a losing streak, US Treasuries eked out only modest gains on eco weakness, as equities kept climbing higher. German bonds ended little changed. Is this the start of longer consolidation period? More eco releases and Fed speakers may lead to an interesting session today.
- Currencies: Euro drifting further south
Yesterday the news flow brought negative news both for the euro and the dollar. The euro was hit the hardest as EMU Q1 GDP growth was reported well below the market consensus. The trade-weighted dollar tested the July 2012 top but the test was rejected. Sterling rebounded as the BoE turned slightly more positive on the UK economy.
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities eked out nice gains on ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Core bonds sell-off resumes
A complex of factors suggesting the worst is over for the US economy and thus a re-accelerate of growth is likely boosted sentiment on risk during the US session, sending core bonds lower. Huge demand for Spanish bonds limit
Currencies: dollar gains across the board
After the taking a breather on Monday, the USD rally resumed. Investors play the card of a cyclical rebound of the dollar. The move is supported by rising US bond yields. The link between EUR/USD and equities has clearly been broken. Today, a poor EMU Q1 GDP might put further pressure on the single currency.
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities eked out nice gains on Tuesday, with the S&P up 1% to a near record high. Overnight, Asian equities trade positive with an ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Core bonds digest losses
Global bonds digested last week losses and corrected higher. They tried to move lower on the back of stronger US retail sales but lacked follow through selling. On EMU bond markets, Spanish and Italian spreads widened, also in a corrective move.
Currencies: Dollar rally takes a breather
Last week, the dollar was in good shape even as there was no high profile news. Yesterday, sentiment clearly changed. The US currency failed to profit from a good US payrolls report. EUR/USD tries to regain the 1.30 mark, while EUR/GBP is testing the 0.8500 resistance
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities were flat on Monday, with the S&P still near the record high. Overnight, Asian equities trade mixed with an outperformance of Chinese equities
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Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: Yields surge higher in repositioning move
Global bonds were heavily sold in a move that was closely linked to the collapse of the yen which caused repositioning across markets. Technically, the moves were significant, also as they occurred in large volumes. Peripheral bonds continued to outperform.
Currencies: Dollar strength across the board
At the end of last week, the dollar gained across the board. Better US eco data of late reactivated the debate on the Fed exit and supported the US currency. USD/JPY jumped beyond the 100 mark. EUR/USD tested the 1.2955/36 short-term support. Will today's retail sales support the case of a cyclical rebound of the dollar?
The Sunrise Headlines
US equities eked out some gains on Friday, with the S&P closing a tad ...
Fundamental Analysis
EUR
"The latest data from Germany are pretty strong."
- Marco Valli, chief euro-area economist at UniCredit Global Research
Exports from Europe’s largest economy increased in March, adding to signs German economy is starting to recover from a contraction at the end of the last year. According to the Federal Statistics Office, the nation’s shipments, adjusted for working days and seasonal changes, advanced 0.5% from February, when they fell 1.2%.
Read more: FULL REPORT - Fundamental Analysis
Technical Analysis
EUR/USD
"We are at a very critical stage at the moment and there are indicators that uncertainty is on the rise again. It is essential for the euro area to find the right mix between necessary austerity and measures to support economic growth as soon as ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Core bonds slide further
- Global core bonds remained under pressure yesterday. Risk-on sentiment on equity markets pushed the German Dax to a new all time high. This weighed on German bonds as well as upcoming supply. Today’s calendar is uneventful which means bond trading might again be driven by sentiment on equity markets.
- Currencies: Risk-on rally hardly affects major currency cross rates
- On Tuesday, the risk rally continued. As most major central banks maintain a similar ultra-loose policy bias, the impact on the likes of EUR/USD is limited. The pair is holding a tight range around the 1.31 pivot. Sterling underperformed EUR/USD. Today, we expect more of the same
The Sunrise Headlines
- US equities continued their march ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
- Rates: Mild pressure on global core bonds
- With Japanese and UK markets closed, trading volumes were very thin yesterday. The US bond market felt some pressure from upcoming supply. In Europe, the Bund reached the bottom of sideways range trading as ECB Draghi repeated the message from last week's press conference that the ECB stands ready to act further if needed.
- Currencies: EUR/USD drops below 1.31 as Draghi confirms easing bias
- EUR/USD initially held a tight range just above the 1.31 mark as there was little high profile news to guide price action. Later in the session, the euro lost some ground as ECB Draghi repeated that the Bank is ready to act if necessary. This morning, the Aussie dollar is losing morer ground as the RBA cut its ...
Sunrise Market Commentary
Rates: New all time high for the German Bund
German bonds outperformed US ones yesterday. Modest profit taking on the ECB decision to cut the refi rate to 0.50% was reversed at press conference. President Draghi kept the door for more policy easing open and refueled the debate on a negative deposit rate. Today, all eyes are on the payrolls.
Currencies: Dollar profits from good US data. Euro hit by soft ECB
On Thursday, the news flow conspired against the EUR/USD cross rate. The US claims and the trade balance were strong and the ECB reopened the debate on a negative deposit rate. EUR/USD dropped more than one big figure during the press conference. EUR/GBP is near 0.8400 support. Can the dollar extend gains on a decent payrolls report?
The Sunrise Headlines
US ...