Estimates Of January's European

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary U.S. Review A Rough Start To April Another week of softer U.S. economic data weighed on market sentiment this week. More hints of slower economic growth are appearing in the data, consistent with our forecast that U.S. GDP growth slows to a 2.8 percent annualized pace in the first quarter and continues slowing to a sub 2 percent annualized pace in the second. Initial jobless claims jumped by 13,000 in the first week of April. February imports plunged 2.7 percent, small business confidence fell in March for the first time in seven months and core inflation is on the rise. A Rough Start to April United States economic data releases so far this month have not been kind to the bulls on Wall Street. The poor March payroll report rattled some ...

(Reuters) - Oil prices slipped towards $123 a barrel on Tuesday as investors worried about high prices hurting demand, but ongoing supply concerns and the expectation of further liquidity injections from the ECB helped underpin prices at elevated levels. Front-month Brent was down 98 cents to $123.19 a barrel by 1054 GMT, after settling more than $1 lower on Monday. U.S. crude was down 25 cents at $108.31 a barrel. Analysts and traders said the rise in oil prices to near 10-month highs last week had led to worries about the impact on the struggling economies of Europe, especially as the euro remains weak against the dollar. "There is some concern growing that high oil prices may impact the economy and oil demand in future," said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. " ...

(Reuters) - Oil prices slipped below $124 a barrel on Tuesday as investors worried about high prices hurting demand, but ongoing supply concerns and the expectation of further liquidity injections from the ECB helped underpin prices at elevated levels. Front-month Brent was down 69 cents to $123.48 a barrel by 0925 GMT, after settling more than $1 lower on Monday. U.S. crude was down 10 cents at $108.46 a barrel. Analysts and traders said that the rise in oil prices to near 10-month highs last week had led to worries about the impact on the struggling economies of Europe, especially as the euro remains weak against the dollar. "There is some concern growing that high oil prices may impact the economy and oil demand in future," said Carsten Fritsch, an analyst at Commerzbank in Frankfurt. ...

Weekly Economic and Financial Commentary : 25/02/2012 U.S. Review Housing Market Recovery: A Regional Story This week, data on the housing market pointed to some slight firming. Although new home sales edged down 0.9 percent, existing home sales were up 4.3 percent. Even with the somewhat better housing data this week, concerns remain about the backlog of foreclosures and their effect on the market. Initial jobless claims continued to trend downward last week declining to 351K. The four-week moving average, the best indicator of the trend, also dropped to 359K suggesting sustained declines in layoffs. Jobless Filings Point to Fewer Layoffs The focus of this week's data was on the housing market with the release of existing home sales and new home sales. The housing data ...

Economic Data Analysis Cyclical Improvement Continues Outside Euro Area Muted reaction to Greek deal, but coming week's LTRO should be more positively received. Global PMIs to maintain improving trend, but Bernanke's testimony to down play gains. UK cyclical vs structural debate highlighted with soft lending figures, while PMI improves After weeks of anticipation, Euro area officials agreed a second Greek bail-out package. This should pave the way for the Greek PSI offer being made later today. Markets have hardly greeted the news with euphoria, concentrating on the clauses and hurdles stil l to be cleared, specifically the take up in the PSI debt swap and rising social tensions evident in Greece. Nevertheless, progress to date makes it less likely that we will see a ...

Economic Data Analysis Greek Drama Goes On Greek deal expected on Monday, but slippage would pose significant test of sentiment. Euro area business surveys to post further modest gains, ‘core' Euro area to avoid recession. UK monetary and fiscal policy updates, both record modest brightening in outlook. The slippage in the already tight timetable for the second Greek bailout has caused concerns to grow again this week. This was exacerbated by some Euro area politicians suggesting that the currency union could now withstand a Greek exit. We are much more sceptical. We do not see senior officials throwing away over two years of work to avert a disorderly Greek default, especially when a deal seems within their grasp. This week should thus prove pivotal. Monday's Eurogroup ...

Economic Data Analysis Signs of Cyclical Turn? Key indicators suggest modest improvement in activity, supporting risk sentiment. The coming week's PMI's should add to the view that global output is firming. Euro area remains key risk to a more positive outlook, with the upcoming Summit in focus. Equities followed the now familiar pattern of 2012: a more cautious close following earlier gains. Nevertheless US, Euro area and UK bourses looked like closing another week in positive territory, a further testimony to the wider improvement in risk sentiment this year. Unless the last days of the month see a sharp reversal, January looks set to post a strong rise on the month, something that in stock market lore bodes well for the year ahead (true just over twothirds of the time over ...

Economic Data Analysis Spectre of Greek PSI Eclipses Fed Meeting Greek PSI deal disappointment could derail fragile improvement in confidence. US Q4 GDP to post upside surprise, Fed policy expected unchanged, but policy goals debated? UK Q4 GDP to show start of renewed recession, MPC minutes to record votes for more QE. Last week's positive tone ended abruptly with S&P's ratings downgrade of key Euro area economies. Nevertheless, sentiment has slowly inched higher, in part on improving US releases, including corporate earnings reports, but also on successful European debt auctions and the prospects for the Greek debt restructuring (PSI). A Greek PSI deal will be key for the coming week. On balance we are hopeful that an agreement can be reached for Monday's finance ministers ...

Economic Data Analysis Geopolitical Risks Trump Busy Calendar? Following the relatively calm manner with which markets dealt with regime change in Tunisia and Egypt, the spreading revolution in Libya has had a much greater impact. Brent Crude leapt to close to $120/barrel last week from just over $100, before comments from Saudi Arabia and the IEA provided some relief. Financial markets remain nervous, with bond gains suggesting safe-haven flow and shorter term rate markets edging away from aggressive rate profiles in the UK and Eurozone, and easing further in the US. While markets will continue to watch developments across the MENA region, this week sees key international events, including the ECB's endquarter meeting (including forecast updates) and from the US, payrolls and ISM data ...