Entering A Bear Market

Fundamental Analysis EUR "Inevitably there is going to be an element of bargain hunting as investors look to top up their holdings on the basis of slightly lower prices" - Richard Hunter, head of equities at Hargreaves Lansdown Stockbrokers European stocks edged higher on Monday on China’s pledge to boost growth. USD "Equity prices have gotten oversold" - Mark Luschini, chief investment strategist for Janney Montgomery Scott LLC U.S. equity market edged higher on Monday on China stimulus hopes and after German and French officials said they would cooperate to keep Greece in the monetary union. GBP "Obviously, as the euro depreciates, the U.K. gets slightly more expensive" - Miles Shipside, Rightmove commercial director U.K. national house prices stagnated in March, announced the ...

(Reuters) - The euro extended its rebound from last week's four-month low on Monday but investors remained concerned over financial turmoil in Greece and Spain, drawing little comfort from a broad G8 pledge to take steps to fight the euro zone's debt crisis. The common currency rose on short-covering after speculators piled up a record amount of bets against it, according to data from a U.S. financial watchdog released late last week. "We are entering a consolidation phase with regard to the euro. It will not be known for a while whether Greece will stay in the euro or not with a Greek election a few weeks away," said Minori Uchida, chief analyst at the Bank of Tokyo-Mitsubishi UFJ. "The market may show some minor reaction to Greek opinion polls... but it is hard to sell the euro in ...

(Reuters) - Oil prices dropped on Thursday after OPEC said it was unhappy with high prices and disappointing economic data helped paint a gloomy outlook for the world economy, reviving concerns about a drop in demand. Brent crude futures dropped below their 100-day moving average on Thursday for the first time since January, while U.S. crude fell by $2 during the session. Worries about the euro zone also increased after the European Central Bank left interest rates unchanged, while its president cautioned that the outlook for the region was subject to downside risks. Unemployment in the euro zone is at a record 15-year high, according to the EU's statistics office. "I think Europe is flooded with crude and funds are liquidating their positions," said an oil trader with a European oil ...

Forex News and Events: There is plenty of speculation about the EURCHF spike around 20.00est yesterday. The sudden move to 1.2035 from 1.2015 has fueled speculation that the SNB was active once again in the FX markets. At this point there is little supporting evidence that what we saw was an official intervention rather than panicky traders hearing footsteps. The SNB, so far, has been very transparent regarding their FX policy. Last Thursday’s trading action had the SNB wholly entering the market on EBS in their own name. In addition, SNBs Jordon quickly issued a discussion memo (see below) outlining in very lucid details the events of the day. The SNB saw no advantage of hiding being classics convoluted Central bank language. There are some significant credibility issues and policy ...

FUNDAMENTAL OUTLOOK at 0800 GMT (EDT +0400) WORLD AUDUSD dropped 100 pips after China‘s flash PMI estimate for March came in well below February’s final print (48.1 versus previous 49.6). The PMI also added to the kiwi’s troubles, compounding the selloff that began earlier after very weak New Zealand Q4 GDP. There was positive news too overnight – Japan‘s trade balance unexpectedly climbed back into surplus territory in February (on a non-seasonally adjusted basis). Surprisingly, stronger exports were the root cause – and even more surprisingly exports to the US in particular grew sharply. This is yet another piece of evidence that the US economic recovery is gaining momentum. On one hand, a return to a trade surplus is likely to provide some temporary support to the yen, but rising US ...

Fundamental News: Today's highlights; CPI + Core CPI (MoM). (US, 13:30, GMT) EUR/USD The EUR/USD has moved up in end of the day trading to reach 1.3104 after opening at 1.3032. There has been no economic news to support the euro move and no weakness exhibited by the greenback. In Europe today, The ECB said isn’t currently considering or discussing future cuts to its interest rates, ECB Governing Council member Ewald Nowotny said Thursday in an interview. Earlier in the day an economic report release showed real wages fell again in the 17 countries that use the euro in the fourth quarter of last year, while employment also declined; confirming consumption and confidence are likely to remain weak as the region teeters on the brink of a return to recession. Manufacturing activity ...

Fundamental News: Today’s highlights; German ZEW Economic Sentiment (GER, 11:00 GMT) ECB President Draghi Speaks (EUR, 12:30 GMT) Retail Sales (MoM) (U.S, 13:30 GMT) FOMC Statement + Interest rate (U.S, 19:15 GMT) An economic indicator designed to anticipate turning points in activity indicated positive development in the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) area, data showed Monday. The index rose for the third consecutive month in January to 100.9 from 100.5 in December, the OECD said. The United States and Japan continue to drive the overall position. Eurozone finance ministers late Monday gave their final nod to a second bailout package for Greece after the country completed a debt swap deal with its private creditors last week. ...

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell 1 percent on Monday, in line with the euro, stocks and other commodities, as worries over the euro zone debt crisis and the impact of high crude oil prices on the fledgling economic recovery fuelled risk aversion. Spot gold was down 0.9 percent at $1,764.80 an ounce at 1058 GMT, while U.S. gold futures for February delivery were down $10.30 an ounce at $1,766.10. The precious metal struggled to maintain traction above $1,780 an ounce last week after rising more than 3 percent -- its best weekly performance since late January -- to its highest in three months. "There is nothing to say that gold should directionally pull back, but if it got to a lot of investors' targets, whether that was around the $1,780 an ounce level we saw last week, they will take some ...

(Reuters) - Gold prices fell on Friday, breaking ranks with the euro, as sharp gains from earlier in the week based on economic optimism and a Greek bailout deal prompted investors to take profits. Silver touched a five-month high after climbing past its 200-day moving average. Analysts, however, said it looks vulnerable for a pullback after the sharp rise. Bullion posted its largest weekly rise in four weeks, as expectations for further easing by China and a near-zero interest-rate outlook for the next several years boosted the metal's inflation-hedge appeal. News that Europe sealed a rescue package for Greece to avert an imminent chaotic default lifted gold along with the euro and other riskier assets. Other investors bought gold on fears of more European monetary easing and lingering ...